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Historic,

Do

not

Archive Document

assume content

scientific

knowledge,

reflects current

policies, or practices.

OREIGN AGRICULTURE October 14, 1974

ying orange grove,

Taiwan

Taiwan's Thriving Trade Inflation in Eastern

Europe

Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. DEPARTMENT

OF AGRICULTURE

FOREIGN AGRICULTURE 41 • Oct.

• No.

Vol. XII

1974

14,

Boom Economy Spurs

Taiwan's

Demand

Farm Imports

for

In this issue:

Taiwan’s Boom Economy Spurs Demand for Farm Im-

2

By Amjad H.

ports

5

Gill

Beginning To Affect Economies of Eastern Europe By Thomas A. Vankai Rains Come to the Sahel But Massive Famine Relief Continues By Snider W. Skinner Incentives New Canadian Aimed at Strengthening Wool Industry By George C. Myles World Copra Output RecoverInflation

7

8

9

From

ing

Drought

German Dampen

10

of

Effects

By Ross Tobacco U.S.

L.

1973

Packard

Difficulties

Export

Pros-

pects

I

II

he Republic of China (Taiwan)

ports and capital goods only 13 percent.

fourth

But by 1972 agricultural and industrial

Far

raw materials made up 57 percent of the value of imports, and capital goods

T—

generally

East

Farmworkers spraying oranges in one of Taiwan’s citrus groves. In 1973, Taiwan’s exports of farm products were valued at about $615 million— including about $6 million worth of canned oranges to the United States. See article begin-

—more than doubled offers

the years ahead. This

true

wheat,

for

Secretary

of

Agri-

barley,

tobacco

cotton,

—commodities

meet growing needs, and

tary for International Affairs

and

Commodity Programs L. Hume, Administrator,

For-

David

At the same time, the United States an important market for Taiwan, although here industrial commodities dominate a trade that was $1 billion in the first half of calendar 1974 alone.

The United

States

is

an

nonetheless

products

and

canned

from Taiwan,

mainly

products

processed

and canned mush-

pineapple

Kay Owsley Patterson, Editor MacPherson, Beverly J. Horsley, Mary Frances Owsley, Patricia 0. H.

Baker,

Marcellus P. Murphy, Isabel A. Smith, Susan Atkins.

the United States Taiwan’s leading ex-

0.

Fraser,

Elmer

W.

Hallowell, William Horbaly, Richard M. Kennedy, J. Don Looper, Larry B. Marton, Brice K.

necessary in transaction of public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing Foreign Agriculture has been approved by the is

Office of Management and Budget (May 14, 1974). Yearly subscription rate: $20.00 domestic, $25.00 foreign; single copies 45 cents. Order from Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Contents of this magazine may be reprinted freely. Use of commercial and

trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA or Foreign Agricultural Service.

billion

in

Taiwanese exports to the United States

agricultural

of this trade

side

dominated by the United States, which in fiscal 1974 shipped $518 million worth of farm products to Taiwan. This represented a more than 100 percent gain over fiscal 1973 sales of $243

tl

a

Taiwan’s leading agricultural imports fr

include wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton,



and tobacco 90 percent of which come from the United States. In fiscal 1974, U.S.

shipments

of

these

products

ii

T:

i(

to

Taiwan totaled around $482 million, compared with $221 million the year before.

Virtually

imports

all

Taiwan’s

of

come from

soybean

the United States.

In 1973, such shipments totaled about 600,000 tons, valued at $139.4 million a figure that climbed further to $155 million in fiscal 1974. Taiwan’s consumption of soybean meal increased more rapidly than did consumption of soybean oil, owing to expansion of the



k an

to

toi

lio

cli

in

the

half of calendar 1974, for

first

livestock industry. irf

represented

instance,

more

than

35

Corn, formerly used chiefly for food, tel

percent of that country’s total exports.

now

is

consumed

mainly

for

feed.

nil

And

Taiwan’s

imports from the

total in

that period,

$845

at

Taiwan

began

importing

significant am

quantities of corn in

1962,

when

the coi

were

million,

25

percent

of

all

its

United States shipped about 17,000 tons. lot

Until 1972, U.S. corn exports to

purchases.

Despite efforts to expand domestic

Taiwan’s

production,

need

sub-

for

Taiwan

fluctuated between 2,000 and 308,000

tons yearly. ska

stantial

food and feed imports

pected

to

Meeker. The Secretary of Agriculture has determined that publication of this periodical

is

outsold only by Japan in the Taiwan

United States

Advisory Board: Kenneth F. McDaniel, Chairman;

Gordon

made

This strong two-way trade has

market. The more than $1

Staff:

The

ll

il

is

like

port market, while the United States

eign Agricultural Service

accounted for 37 percent.

il

million.

is

Clayton K. Yeutter, Assistant Secre-

E.

especially

is

rooms.

culture

G.

corn,

and

soybeans,

sugar

Editorial

fiscal

l

il

in

tural

Butz,

takings of

1974 potential for futher growth

U.S. agricultural exports in

and

the

in

its

important market for selected agricul-

ning this page.

L.

or

third

farm market

U.S.

largest

the

rising incomes.

This week's cover:

!

1

insufficient to

Earl

Competition Division

Economic Research Service

aided by strong demand, domestic crops

Crops and Markets

13

AMJAD H. GILL Demand and

By

Foreign

continue.

Imported

is

ex-

farm

products are being subsidized, long-term supply agreements sought, and foreign sources

are

being

firmed

up.

Closer

T

hailand was the chief supplier of corn to Taiwan until 1972 when

j

iol

the United States took the lead. U.S. corn exports to Taiwan totaled a record

asp

ami

economic

ties

are being arranged with

560,000 tons, valued

at

about $50 milh|

some oil-producing countries to expand two-way trade in industrial equipment as well as

and edged up

value to $52 million for

Taiwan has signed

farm products.

Taiwan’s

lion in calendar 1973,

fiscal

a trade

in

1974.

agreement

its

with U.S. suppliers for importation of

undergone a fundamental

about 1.35 million tons of U.S. corn

composition. In 1952, agri-

over the next 3 years. The United States has been the main

imports,

as

well

as

lap;

exports, have

change

in

and industrial raw materials accounted for 74 percent of total im-

cultural

F to®

supplier of wheat to

Taiwan

since 1953. ft

Page 2

Foreign Agriculture

Between 1953 and 1967, U.S. wheat exports included both Government-assisted

ii

and commercial shipments. Since then, all wheat imports from the United States have been on a dollar basis. In fiscal 1974, U.S. wheat exports to Taiwan soared to $152 million for a nearly 350 percent gain from the fiscal 1973 level. Under a new 3-year trade agreement, U.S, suppliers are scheduled

ni

I

export about

to

1.65

million tons

wheat to Taiwan. Taiwan depends almost imports the

for

its

entirely

on

supply of cotton.

In

Taiwan’s

1960’s,

of

cotton

spinning

industry expanded rapidly, and cotton

imports

increased

cotton exports to !j!

$98 million

accordingly.

Taiwan

hit a

U.S. record Every square foot of arable land in Taiwan

marketing year 1973-74

in

(August-Iuly). Sales of about 400,000

must produce

bales for shipment in 1974-75 represent

a value near the 1973-74 level.

Terraced

Takings of tobacco and cattle hides from the United States also reached

new

records.

lion

in

1974

fiscal

at



those in the previous the

increase

maximum

above

of

high-

quality cigarettes. Sales of U.S. nonfat

dry milk and inedible tallow also rose. Total exports from Taiwan have 1

shown

similar sharp gains.

use of available

chemical fertilizer is broadcast nearby by another field worker. Taiwan's agricultural production is expected to rise about 4 percent this year. Rice cropland is 5-10 percent greater this year than last.

year— reflecting

production

in

hillsides,

farmland. Workers in foreground, below, weed ricefield, while

about $25 mil-

two-thirds

share

left, facilitate

U.S. tobacco exports to

Taiwan were valued i

its

of food, such as the garden crops, above.

The 1973

figure of about $4.5 billion represented

an increase of around 50 percent from the $3 billion shipped in 1972. Agricultural exports in

lion

1973 rose to $615 milthe 1972 value.

— 33 percent over

Still,

agricultural products

have de-

clined in importance over the long term,

Taiwan’s rapid economic development and its shift from an agrireflecting

cultural to industrial base. In 1958,

raw

and processed agricultural goods

ac-

counted for 86.3 percent of Taiwan’s total export trade.

By 1964,

mr-

that share

had declined to 56 percent, and by 1972, to only 17.1 percent. At the same time, sharp gains were made in industrial

WJlVj ®

exports.

Among the

major agricultural exports in 1973 were sugar, frozen pork, canned asparagus, canned mushrooms, canned and fresh pineapple, tea, and vegetables. Exports of sugar, the most important agricultural commodity, increased from $88 million value in 1972 to $91 million in 1973. The major sugar buyers were Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

Frozen pork was the second major commodity in export importance. Exports of frozen pork were valued at October 14, 1974

w11. tit \ 4

jag QyiuM

/

s

yLi*Jp

r

;

%t $69.5 million in 1973, compared with only $20.1 million in 1972.

customers Japan,

for

Taiwan’s

Hong Kong,

The major pork

were

the Philippines, and

sugar, canned mushpineapple, canned canned oranges, and canned asparagus. Trade States

include

rooms, in

these individual products, however,

has shown some sharp

Singapore.

Taiwan’s agricultural exports to the

United States in fiscal 1974 were valued at about $82 million up almost 19 percent from the fiscal 1973 total. Major items shipped to the United





and often rather sudden changes during the last decade. Sugar played a leading role in Taiwan’s expansion of exports to the United States during the early 1960’s, but later began to lose ground to such



Page 3

— mushrooms, canned canned pineapple, and other fruits and

domestic production of 95,000 tons in 1974 about 12 percent higher than the

vegetables.

1973

newcomers

as

While sugar’s fortunes in the U.S. market steadily eroded, falling to $10.3



products

other

moved

United

the

to

States

to successive records.

$23 million

—more than double the

level

But shipments of canned mushrooms fell from about $25 million in calendar 1972 to $20.6 million in calendar 1973 and held at about 1972.

calendar

of

that level in fiscal 1974.

Canned

pineapple

exports

to

the

United States likewise fell from about $7.8 million in 1972 to $6 million in 1973 and oranges $1.3

slightly less

And

1974.

fiscal



million in

reach

subject to

is

from an

1964

—eased

productive

price

agricultural

agricultural

ceilings,

fixed

land

purposes, such

for as

non-

factory

.

and 1974

viewed by

is

when compared

with

percent,

compared with 12 percent

1973 and 11 percent

in

is

about 9 in



eroding the favorable trade balance that

Taiwan has enjoyed

for the past few

years. Also, domestic price stabilization

be a major problem, due to the annual rate of inflation of over 12

will

percent.

Taiwan’s

agricultural

production

is

expected to increase by about 4 percent this year. Rice cropland probably will be 5-10 percent larger than in 1973.

The Government’s 1974 production

is

a

target for rice

minimum

2.5

million

tons.

Large quantities of corn are required for Taiwan’s expanding livestock industry,

and the Government hopes for

Page 4

a

to

corn imports over the next 3 years wifi be imported from the United States.

The Taiwan Food Bureau ended system

barter

rice-fertilizer

early

Food Bureau

1973. In the past,

its

in rice

supplies obtained under the barter system have been instrumental in maintaining stable prices for this major cereal food. Food Bureau rice purchases under

has had

inflation

of several major domestic

prices

Sugar prices to farmers are guaran-

$132 per

metric ton of raw sugar produced from

in

cane deliveries.

other countries.”

Rice price for pending.

and housing construction, of the

steps

is

an example

being taken to preserve

farmland.

The Government’s major increase output

ment

in

is

of

to

a substantial investfor

facilities

distribution

effort

shortage

irrigation

water.

and For

1973

Farm

rough

1974 production for

price

rice

set

is

is

second-crop at

about

16

cents per kilogram for deliveries to the

Government under the rice tax program Food Bureau under the cash

or to the

purchase plan.

Mushroom canners the

Government

are required by

to pay growers about

prices of fertilizer so as to encourage

40 cents per kilogram for fresh mushrooms purchased from farmers during the 1973-74 growing season. There is no requirement that all mushrooms produced be purchased. Asparagus canners are directed by the Government to pay about 28 cents

farm production.

per kilogram for first-grade asparagus

example, investments in water storage

1972.

However, rising costs of some imported raw materials such as crude oil and agricultural raw commodities plus higher ocean freight rates are

order

been overwhelmingly in Taiwan’s favor. An agreement signed in 1973 provides that a majority of wheat, soybeans, and

teed for the 1973-74 crop at

the slowing effects that

slower rate than in 1973. The

year

in

agricultural products in 1973.

gus, $3.4 million; feathers, $2.7 million;

this

States

equalize the trade balance, which has

trol

economists as favorable

chestnuts, $4.2 million; canned aspara-

(GNP)

from the United

did not provide enough rice in Government hands to prevent price rises of nearly 400 percent early in 1974. The Government continued to con-

Taiwan's economic growth rate in both 1973 .

$6

estimate for expansion in gross national

have

a floor-price cash-purchase plan in 1973

Other commodities shipped to the United States and total values in fiscal 1974 are: Tea, $2.1 million; water

product

States.

importers

of

of their agricultural raw materials needs

purchases,

and input controls. The two largest problems facing Government agricultural planners are a shortage of land and low farm income. While there is not much that can be done to expand total farm area, the Government is making an effort to retain as much of present farmland as possible, and to finance inputs that will increase farm output. The recent ban on the use of highly

in fiscal 1974.

slightly

from the United

categories

through such devices as taxation,

prices,

to $5.8 million

and citronella oil, $1.2 million. Taiwan’s strong demand for imported farm commodities has been supported by its booming domestic economy, which in 1974 is growing at an only

Several

making a major

is

been instructed to buy major portions

direct

initial

a record

to

rate

Government con-

a substantial degree of

canned

of

interest

purchases of agricul-

effort to increase

tural products

in 1974.

Agriculture in Taiwan

than $6 million in

exports

after soaring

million in 1973

may

production

65,000 tons

trol

However, recently the situation has again changed. With high world prices, sugar exports to the United States in fiscal 1973 shot back up to over $15 million and in fiscal 1974 to more than

The

oilseeds.

The Government

total.

Soybean

million in calendar 1972, shipments of

and

grains

has since been increased.

and distribution facilities in the ChiaNan area will add about 75,000 acres to

the

about

present irrigated 1.1

land

area of

million acres.

The Government

also controls selling

Also, subsidies are provided for im-

purchased from farmers. The

minimum

ports of soybeans and wheat, and ceil-

prices for lower grades are set accord-

ing prices have been set for items produced from these subsidized raw agri-

to purchase the total crop produced.

cultural products.

As

Pineapple

measure to reduce the impact of rising world prices, the Government reduced the import duty on a large number of imported farm commodities by 50 percent. The Government in early 1973 estaba further

lished a low-interest

ing to quality. There

(5.5 percent)

re-

volving loan fund to finance imports of

production

is

is

canners’

pending.

no requirement price

for

Minimum

1974 price

canners were permitted to pay for fresh pineapple during the winter 1973 har-

from about $29 to about $35 per metric ton, depending upon quality. There is no requirement to pur-

vest ranged

chase total production.

Tobacco minimum purchase

prices Continued on page 11

Foreign Agriculture

— culated to counterbalance subsidies.

Beginning To Affect

Inflation

Demand-pull

inflation

Economies

—domestic

consumption, domestic investment, and

Europe

of Eastern

present in

is

economy

three spheres of the

owing

exports. In 1973,

in part to in-

creased industrial productivity, the ag-

THOMAS

By

Foreign

A.

VANKAI

income

disposable

gregate

Demand and Competition

ranged from 5 percent

Division

Economic Research Service

increase

Hungary

in

to

10 percent in Poland.

Higher incomes invariably increase

nettlesome economic problem for many Western countries inflation is now beginning to harrass some of

A —



European

the centrally planned Eastern

economies.

l

In at least four countries slovakia, East !

Poland



—Czecho-

Germany, Hungary, and

defensive measures are being

taken, and State planners in these counare assessing the impact of infla-

tries

tion on domestic food consumption and on agricultural production and trade.

Actually,

inflation

manifestation



is



in

simplest

its

rising retail price indices

not an alarming problem in Eastern

Europe. Consumer price increases have

been suppressed by price control. Only some selected retail price increases have been allowed, and these

many

have in

cases been balanced by

demand

— and

only

at the

consumer

member

East European

level.

The

countries (Bul-

Czechoslovakia, East Germany,

garia,

Hungary, Poland, and Romania) of the Council for Economic Mutual Assistance

(CEMA)

are self-sufficient neither

food nor in energy, and sooner or

in

impact of higher prices must

later the

show up in the form of lower purchasing power for consumers. The principal factors of cost-push inprice increases in world Approximately one-third of East European foreign trade is conducted with countries where price increases have occurred countries that are

flation

markets.



members of

are not

CEMA,

Within

CEMA. in

Unplanned expenses for investments combined with a positive trade balance, as in Hungary in 1973, exert a demandpull effect. None of the Governments of Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, or Poland succeeded in achieving

as devices for keep-

ing investment outlays.

international

overnment

and

and are kept agreement is

often

remained

have

Nevertheless, the internal economies

constant.

Few

inflationary pressures, but through strin-

sulated

can

from the worldwide

effects of cost-push or flation, or

there

an

is

absence

of

any prevalent inflationary psychology at

present,

at

least



that

would tend

to bring latent inflationary forces into fast action.

Not

all

of the

manifold causes of

inflation found in the world’s enterprise economies exist in the centrally planned

economies, and the effects of inflation differ

in

each economy according to

the countermeasures adopted.

Simmering

approved by Keynesian economists and tolerated in most developed countries, has also been approved by a majority of East European economists. Galloping inflation, generated by increased raw materials prices larly of

food and energy



—has

particu-

not yet

penetrated the centrally planned econo-

mies to any extent.

However, the effects of higher world prices on the centrally planned economies have been averted only temporarily October 14, 1974

from the

of excessive

money

ant,

also

became ramp-

and that project completion times were underestimated, forcing

remain

in-

inflationary

demand-pull

in-

inflationary effects

tives of financing additional

ects.

tions in granting additional funds tend to

supply.

investment completed projUsually, socioeconomic considera-

costs or having partially

override economic feasibility.

This

The cost-push effect usually exerted by wage increases or administered pric-

situation occurs because price rigidities

minimized by official controls, but even in socialized economies not all incomes are derived from controlled

ity costs.

ing

is

wages.

make

H

contributes

almost

for

example,

one-third

to

farm incomes of Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Hungary countries where private ownership of land is minimal.

deficits,

opportun-

while not inflationary

financed by loans, have an indirect

inflationary effect, as the balancing in-

ousehold farming,

the land

difficult to calculate

it

Budget if

volves

the

inflation,

extend

long

gent controls the outward appearance

And

present

to

found

planners

that cost overruns

choices between the undesirable alterna-

nations

of inflation has been avoided temporarily.

The

scheduled

through 1975.

of the four countries are under severe

economic con-

that

trols

G

items

They found worked better

ports.

prices are negotiated for 5-year periods

clothing

con-

sumption, domestic investment, and ex-

price reductions. Prices of staple food

unchanged.

among domestic

proper balance

1959, foreign

on

based

prices

As a result, annual meat consumption rates projected in Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Hungary for 1975 actually are being reached in 1974, and in Poland the projection for 1975 was attained in 1973.

ing incomes in check than for restrict-

under the terms of

an agreement signed trade

for stably priced food, particu-

meat.

larly



And is

interest

taxes both

payments

and

higher

of which add to the cost

of production.

Countermeasures subsidies

for

heavier

include

staple

foods

to

shelter

consumers from the hardships of price

in

Poland, 84 percent of

advances,

in the

hands of citizens hav-

nonessential foods and beverages, and

ing access to

some

free markets.

consumption of self-produced goods and the prices received on free markets rise faster than farm productivity— as has been the case an inflationary effect exists. Other cost-increasing factors are the interest rates charged to enterprises for capital borrowing and turnover taxes on industrial goods calIf the



higher

prices

of

so-called

reduced investment outlays. Price stabilization, which requires a

considerable degree of regulatory nipulation, has

become more

ma-

difficult to

maintain since 1973.

The

traditional

currency trade price

equalization

come more

isolation

of

hard-

through export-import

maneuvers has be-

difficult to

achieve in East-

Page 5

9 7

.

ern Europe because prices of imported

pensate

raw materials have increased

stances,

faster than

ducers in each of the four countries

remain independently

which

set,

by the abolition of vehicle

in-

producer

sold

for

ma-

agricultural

for

farms,

socialised

while

higher prices were established for pri-

producer prices.

isolates

on

chinery

than

less

provided

been

Government

in

license fees.

In Poland, special fuel allocations have

to unrealistic levels,

products

have been

stores

between

narrowed

some

and

Prices charged by retailers and pro-

some

In

outlays.

gap

the

prices has

export prices.

the

for

9 7

5

owned equipment.

vately

and precludes any benefit that

Food subsidies annually are becoming more burdensome, and now ac-

ures,

might be achieved by increasing export

count for an average 8-10 percent of

their populations for thrift

prices.

total

budget outlays in the four coun-

in

tries.

In Hungary, the food subsidy in-

of coal in place of oil or gas. In East

producers from fluctuations in import prices

The

stimulation of agricultural pro-

duction has continued, due to higher

producer

domestic

But

prices.

—such

appealed to

countries

four

the

and efficiency the use of energy, and for the use

Germany, industry has been ordered

creased by 10 percent in 1973. Retail prices of domestic fruits

staple

addition to administrative meas-

In

and

consumption by

reduce electricity

to

2.4 percent in 1974.

meat and meat products, bread and

which are not controlled in the four countries, have risen mark-

cereal products, milk and dairy prod-

edly. Also, prices of alcoholic beverages

countries to acknowledge officially that

and imported coffee, cocoa, and were hiked in 1973.

turn to pre-1973 levels nor to past price

food prices

retail

and

ucts,

sugar

—have

those

as

remained

of

vegetables,

un-

changed.

Only in Hungary, where a 1971-75 economic plan is in effect, have some food prices been increased. retail Higher prices were posted for milk and milk products in 1972 to alleviate a short supply situation, and the result was a drastic reduction in milk consumption and the creation of a milk all

the

of the four

first

import prices probably would not

fruits

re-

Producers of steel, chemicals, and clothing have been notified they must pay more for their raw materials, ratios.

T

he

Government

polish

between

tiates

“nonimportant”

differen-

“important” imports

food

and

by

starting

in-

have involved subsidizing staple and charging turnover tax on nonfood consumer goods to comlations

food products

is

approve tax

considering whether

important”

arbitrary

benefits or higher product prices if the

disputes.

increased

After some hesitation, the Govern-

absorbed.

This

category. lends

to

itself

will

it

production costs cannot be

Hungarian Foreign Trade Minister

ments of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland increased prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in 1973, thus adding to agricultural production costs. In Czechoslovakia, the higher prices were offset

four countries, price manipu-

The Government

1975.

in

creasing prices of goods in the “non-

categorization

surplus in 1973. In

Hungary was

-

Jozsef Biro describes the scale and pro-

portion of price

CEMA

trade

movements outside

the

“unprecedented

area as

in the history of socialist

planned econ-

Continued on page 12

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CZECHOSLOVAKIA, EAST GERMANY, HUNGARY, AND POLAND Czechoslovakia Rate of growth

Item

Germany

East

Hungary

1971-

1971-

75

75

75

75

annual average planned

1973

1974

actual

plan

annual average planned

Percent

Percent

Percent

Percent

5. 4-5.

6.7 7.2

5.0 5. 5-6.0

6. 6-6.8

8.2-8.4

1973

1974

actual

plan

annual average 1973 planned actual

1974 plan

Percent PercentPercent Percent PercentPercent 4.7-5. 1 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.4 .

.

1971-

1971annual average planned

National income Industrial production

Poland Rate of growth

Rate of growth

Rate of growth

6.0-6.3

6.4

5. 7-6.0

5.8

6. 0-6.3

3.8 5.5

2.4

'5.4

'6.8

3. 2-3.4

5.0

2. 0-2.

3. 5-3.

3. 9-4.2

2

2

4.6-4.

4. 5-5.0

5. 0-5.5

3.4-3.

6.8

6.7

1973

1974

actual

plan

Percent Percent 9.5 12.0

9.5 11.1

Agricultural

production Real income

2.6 5.0

2

4.2 6.2

2

Czechoslovakia

East

5.6

4.5

Germany

Hungary

2

7.8 10.0

2

4.3 8.8

Poland

1975

1973

1974

1975

1973

1974

1975

1973

1974

1975

1973

1974

plan

actual

plan

plan

actual

plan

plan

actual

plan

plan

actual

plan

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

76.5

78

67

65.8

68

61-62

61.3

63.5

217

174.2

192

200

157.6

180

Meat consumption .... 78 use per hectare .... 229 per capita

72.6-75

72

314

284

73.5-74

Fertilizer

204.8

210.6

Index (1965

Czechoslovakia

1970

1972

109.8 101.1 114.9

109.3 105.0 113.6

East

1973

3

290

= 100)

Germany

1970

1972

99.8 101.0 98.2

99.8 102.1 96.4

Hungary

Poland

1973

1970

1972

1973

1970

1972

1973

4

104.3 106.8 102.0

109.4 109.7 106.9

113.2 115.3

106.8 108.1 102.7

107.2 110.1 99.5

107.9 110.4 99.7

Retail prices

Total

Food products Industry goods 1

.

.

.

.

.

Includes food industry.

Page 6

2

Money income

4

)

( 4

( ) 4 ( )

of population.

3

Estimate.

(

) 4

(

) 4

(

) 4

4 ( )

Not available. Foreign Agriculture

Come

Rains

from Dakar, Senegal,

the lines

to the Sahel, But

mako and

jan, Ivory Coast, to

Massive Famine Relief Continues

sisted

of

contributions have

con-

mostly of grain sorghum

and

grain

The

high-protein foods consisted

corn-soya

sorghum

blends,

soy-fortified

and similar products.

grits,

Upper

Senegal,

severe flooding later in the season.

In any case, pasture conditions had

begun

improve simply because such a large part of the area’s livestock population had died from lack of food and/ to

region for 5 years.

In

meantime,

the

tional relief efforts continue

—with

multi-million-dollar

total

some

pledged

$145

United

million

States.

interna-

the

including

by

the

by the European Community, France, West Germany, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations Children’s

Bank,

Fund

(UNICEF),

Belgium,

Hungary,

World Denmark,

the

Canada,

must

River; at Parakou,

despite

total

failure

in

localized

and

in

each country

in

1973

drought years.

in earlier

neighbors

move

—and

—have

those

of

their

been mobilized to amounts of food into

large

drought-stricken regions, although

some

bottlenecks have developed. In the

summer

of 1974, a shipment

of 1,600 metric tons of U.S. sorghum

was unloaded

at Oran, Algeria (on the Mediterranean Sea), and hauled overland by truck across the Sahara to Gao,

and Tessalit in

be

ferried

across

the

Dahomey,

Senegal

the north-

ern terminus of one of the country’s

All of the transport facilities of the

countries

THER bottlenecks have developed at Rosso, Mauritania, where foods

in Mali. In 1974, as well as

1973, a U.S. Air Force Task Force

rail

lines;

and Maiduguri, Nigeria, the

north end of another In that

addition lie

to

to

the

rail line.

the

south

Sahel

countries

of the

Sahara, contributions of food have also been made to the Gambia, Guinea, and

Cameroon,

as well as to some other countries in East Africa. Drought con-

ditions have also been reported in northern Nigeria and the far northern part of Ghana. Neither country has asked

for international relief, however. Nigeria is

drawing on

its

own

resources to meet

at Bamako, Mali, to airfields at Gao, Tomboucto, Goundam, Tessalit, and

In addition to famine relief, the Sahel countries will also benefit from several middle- and long-term projects

Nioro,

all

also

in

Mali.

Negotiations

As of

July 31, 1974, total U.S. aid commit-

truck caravans from Oran; and by Niger

ments of

River barges from Mopti, Mali.

Since 1973,

when

the United States

ship food for famine relief

Sahel

metric tons

countries,

of U.S.

over 600,000

grain

and high-

protein

foods have been

This

about 40 percent of the total

is

and Contonou, Dahomey.

Norway, Spain, Sweden, Kingdom, the United Arab

tions.

the

gestion has been particularly heavy at Dakar, Senegal; Abidjan, Ivory Coast;

food consumed

that

were also recently completed to open Mauritania and Chad to airshipments of grain and other foods from Bamako. In addition to the airlifts by U.S. planes from Bamako, the distribution point at Gao has been supplied by a variety of other means and from several directions by truck from the railhead 1974 at Parakou, Dahomey; by the

to

of the railroads, trucks, and waterways to get foods in the required amounts to hungry people inland. Con-

the

the

Emirates, the Soviet Union, and other countries and international organiza-

to

inability

of three C-130’s flew grain from a base

Libya,

lands, Nigeria,

began

grains

Nether-

Japan,

the United

efforts,

it

In addition to the U.S.

contribution, relief has been given

Despite these massive

and other foods have piled up on West African docks because of the relative

crops provided the greater part of the

grass

is

to subordinate sup-

ply centers.

O

in

that

Sahel

massive

Niger and have to be

the six countries. Barges on the Niger River are also used to move supplies

— 50 percent or more some countries — there now more should be rememper animal. Also, — bered some areas —home-grown or water

this

Since

railroads, they

or go by separate routes, has added greatly to the transport capacity for delivery of food to hungry residents in

Volta, Niger, and Chad.

Several of the Sahel countries suffered

Chad. However, it is still too early to determine whether the rainfall will be adequate to produce normal crops and thus end the drought that has gripped

Nigeria.

from main depots

Rains were above normal in July in



to

supplied by other means. The use of large-capacity trucks over roads that either parallel the railroads,

corn.

he rainy season is in progress in the West African countries that are known as the “Sahel” Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Upper Volta, Niger, and

Dohomey,

Parakou, Dohomey; and from Apapa (Lagos) and Port Harcourt, Nigeria, to

Chad have no

U.S.

T

Ba-

Ouagadougou. Up-

per Volta; from Contonou,

Maiduguri,

By SNIDER W. SKINNER Foreign Demand and Competition Division Economic Research Service

to

Koulikoro, Mali; from Abid-

quantity from

all

all

contributed.

contributors.

kinds (including food) to

the six Sahel countries $ 145-million level.

October 14, 1974

had reached the



Among relief

the railroads used to supply food to interior West Africa are

crisis.

that have been initiated

by the United and by in-

States and other countries

ternational organizations.

Among

these

programs to improve river navigation on the Niger River in Mali, animal and human health, railroad rolling stock and tracks, crop storage facilities, and are

water supplies. Also being studied are projects aimed at improving range man-

agement techniques, increasing agriculand a scheme detailing the possibility of settling nomadic tribes on farms. tural production,

Page 7

New Canadian

Incentives

New

Aimed

Zealand to become the next-to-

source, ranking second to the United Kingdom, Canada’s longtime major supplier. largest

At Strengthening Wool Industry

Canadian wool producers face virwool from

tually duty-free imports of

GEORGE

By

exporting

MYLES

C.

Office of U.S. Agricultural Attache

Ottawa

C

anada’s

sheep

through

industry,

new Federal and

lamb

Provincial

and mutton incentive programs,

at-

is

tempting to reverse a 10-year decline in sheep numbers and wool production. Sheep and lamb numbers decreased by nearly 40 percent in the 10-year

1973. Confidence

period ending June

was eroded, due mainly to lack of economic stability. However, strong domestic lamb prices and producer incentive programs now provide some optimism in Canada’s sheep industry, although 1974 wool in the industry

averaging lower

are

prices

than

last

pounds of wool clipped 7.8

pounds

this

than

1

industry

speculates

that

pro-

Aver-

in 1973.

year

— about

the

same

Canada’s sheep numbers into 1975, thus bringing about increased wool output. Canada’s

total

wool

clip

was

off

7

production at 1,215,000 pounds also was down 7 percent from 1972 levels. Alberta and Ontario are Canada’s

producers of wool, accounting

and 22 percent, respectively, of total shorn wool production in 1973. Average fleece weights are heaviest in Alberta and Saskatchewan at 9.1 and 9 pounds, respectively, well ahead of the 7.8 pound average for Canada.

forecast

to

Wool at

reach

37

a slight

million

increase

sumption

related

closely

is

amount imported, and

is

to

the

forecast

to

reach 39 million pounds, an 8 percent increase over 1973 domestic disappear-

ance of wool.

The

wool supply

total

in

Canada

is

influenced mostly by the quantity imported.

In

supply

1973, total

fell

25

percent

to 37,578,000 pounds, due mainly to reduced imports. A decrease in wool production accounted for only

2.5 percent of the decline.

Exports

1973 fell back to 1971 by 419,000 pounds from the 1972 level. Domestic disappearance was off sharply in 1973 down 25 perlevels

in

— down



cent

for 35

to

36

million

pounds from 45

million pounds in 1972.

Sheep numbers declining

steadily.

in

Canada have been The total number

of sheep and lambs on farms on January

by

pounds

in

although

category de-

this

percent

1,378,000 1973 from 1,837,000 pounds 33

to

1972.

Scoured

tripled,

or

rising

down 25 percent from 1972’s 45 million pounds. The average farm price of wool in 1973 was 70.9 cents per pound, up substantially from the 1972 average of 31.4 cents per pound. Members of the Canadian Cooperative Wool Growers, greasy basis in 1973,

received an additional patronage dividend of 3 cents per pound in 1973.

Ltd.,

Total farm value of shorn wool produc-

exports are expected to remain

or about 1973 levels. Domestic con-

clined

washed wool exports from 58,000 pounds in 1972 to 172,000 pounds in 1973 as Belgium-Luxembourg emerged as a new market for wool of this classification. The United Kingdom continued to be Canada’s major wool export market. Domestic consumption of raw wool in Canada totaled 36 million pounds

increase

largest

are

the grease,

in

fall will

Canadian imports of raw wool during first-quarter 1974 were down slightly from the correpsonding period of 1973, pounds for the year, over the 1973 level.

to

retention programs this

as in 1973.

but

declined

ducers claiming advantage of available

The Western wool clip at 1,997,000 pounds was down 7 percent, and Eastern

expected to be about

exports

from 1,987,000 pounds in 1972. The major item of export trade is wool in

152,000 on January 1, 1974, compared with 158,000 on farms as of January 1, 1973.

4 percent to

The

Canada’s wool

year declined

1,

1974 prob-

ably will yield close to the 3.2 million

is

less

respectively.

1,568,000 pounds greasy basis in 1973

revised 1972 level of 3,448,000 pounds.

level of shearing in

age fleece yield

Lambs aged

tariffs

1974.

ending January

the year

in

percent to 3,212,000 pounds from the

world wool prices.

The

earlier.

The number of sheep 1 year old or more was down 3 percent to 410,000

in

uncertainty

recent

reflecting

year,

1974, was 561,500, compared with

1,

579,400 a year

The only

countries.

on raw wool imports into Canada are those on wool not further prepared than combed. Such imports are free under the British preferential rate, and have most-favored-nation and general tariffs of 5 and 15 Canadian cents per pound,

O

f THE TOTAL 3,221,187 pounds of

wool graded in 1972, 2,776,218 pounds met acceptable grade standards and 289.919 pounds fell into reject grades. Although the 1973 wool clip was sound and well grown, it was said to have an unusually high percentage of chaffy and burry wools. Hay and straw stems were the main problems. Canada is a net importer of wool, and depends heavily on foreign sources for consumable supplies. Total raw wool imports in 1973 were 34.4 million pounds greasy basis, down 21 percent from 43.6 million pounds in 1972. Decreased imports of scoured and washed wool and wool tops were major contributions to the lower 1973 import volume. The United States in 1971 was Canada’s fourth largest supplier, but by 1973 had displaced both Australia and

tion reached $2.3 million in 1973,

pared with $1.1 million

To

encourage

production,

lamb

higher

a

com-

1972.

in

level

of

programs

incentive

have been put into effect by the Alberta and Nova Scotia Provincial Governments as well as by the Federal Govern-

ment

in

Ottawa.

A at

lamb processing plant being built Innisfail, Alberta, by the Lamb

Processors Co-op, Ltd.,

be

in

plant

operation in the is

to be

is

fall

scheduled to of 1974.

The

operated jointly by the

the Alberta

Wool Commission, Government, and individual

producers.

A

Alberta Sheep and

supply of about 60,000

lambs per year probably to

justify

the

plant.

will

In

be required

1973,

about

50,000 lambs were slaughtered at Winnipeg and Edmondton, and at least some of this volume to the

new

is

expected to be diverted

facility at Innisfail.

Continued on page 16

Page 8

Foreign Agriculture

— !

1972

World Copra Output Recovering

Production

level.

ing and the

1975

now improvmay be up to

is

total

134.000 tons.

From Effects

of

1973 Drought

New

Production in Papua year

likely

is

to

Guinea

this

be up by about

15

percent over the 1973

By ROSS

PACKARD

L.

Foreign Commodity Analysis, Oilseeds and Products Foreign Agricultural Service

level, for a total

77.000 tons,

oil

1975

total

likely to

same

level.

In

is

addition

The

equivalent basis.

be

the

to

at

about the

four

principal

copra-producing countries, copra also is

W

orld production of copra

1974

in

estimated at 2.5 million metric

is

tons in terms of

equivalent

oil

—up

2

percent or 44,000 tons from the 1973

terms of

as a

result of lack of rain in principal pro-

ducing areas. The 2,471,000-ton total volume of oil produced in 1973 was

down

293,000 tons from

11 percent or

Copra production generally was

much

1972.

It

1975

will

stable

of the 1960’s, but increased

sharply in

rather



In addition, lack of

likely

is

1971

and again

in

that

production

in

Law

fertilizer

resulting

in

a

total

ceed

1.2

Mexico,

islands,

New

are expected to ex-

oil

year, up There probbe further improvements in

million

tons

from 1973

slightly

ably will

this

levels.

1975 to about the 1.4-million-ton level. The four major producer-exporter

and un-

for

terms of

oil in

may

countries

copra

1973 decline,

outturn

year that was only 41

Pacific

tropical countries.

new Land Reform

contributed to the

Malaysia,

India,

World exports of copra and coconut

in

certainty over the

in 1972.

in

French

the

Hebrides, Mozambique, and some other

(oil

1974 is estimated at 96.000 tons an improvement over the relatively low output of 67,000 tons produced in 1973 that was the result of severe drought conditions. equivalent)

the high production of 2,764,000 tons

over

Lanka’s production of copra

grown

Fiji,

increase in copra production in 1975. Sri

down

about

total

567.000 tons, up 2 percent from the 1973 level. There should be a slight

total.

Last year’s production was

appears likely to

oil

in

the

1974

total.

percent of the

(oil

ship

1,045,000 tons of

equivalent) and coconut

— about

oil

84 percent of the However, during 1973 and 1974 copra-coconut

several

producing

oil

Continued on page 16

be almost back to the rela-

1972

tively high

COPRA: ESTIMATED PRODUCTION BY SELECTED PRODUCING COUNTRIES ANNUAL 1968-73 AND FORECAST 1974

level.

Almost three-fourths of the world’s is produced in four

(In

1,000 metric tons)

supply of copra countries



Philippines,

the

Forecast

Indonesia,

1963

1969

....

200 279 669

cent of the world output of 2.5 million

Indonesia Malaysia 3

194 274 660

tons.

Philippines 2 ....

191 1,352

181 1,183

Lanka, and Papua New Guinea. The combined production in terms of oil in these countries in 1974 is estimated at about 1.9 million tons, or about 74 perSri



In

these

1960,

countries

69 percent of the

total; in

Country

Lanka 2

Sri

....

India 2

Philippines,



and

terms of

in

probably

in oil

1974

—of

amount

will

its

Papua Other Total

1,120,000 tons

likely to

is

Mozambique 2

The Philipbe down about

sult

Other Total

2 percent in 1974 from 1973, as a

2,078 61

1,775 61

1,750 61



886

-

57

2,669

3,189

3,720

3^298

3^333

28

34

29

29

26

26



18 117

19 112

14

116

120

34

37

40

106 40

14 105

.

18 63

16

16 109 31 16

14

.

17

17

278

76 294

70 271

82 298

83 286

285

300

60 49 109

51

60 52 112

57 50 107

54 54 103

60 54 114

60

47 93

135 66

100 64 164

179

40 17 83

-

— -

Africa:

cent of total world output.

pine total

1,704 61

150

2,569

Islands

New Guinea 2 .. New Hebrides

the

45 per-

105 290 871 196

280 711 182

French Pacific

production

to about

769 179

255 290 846 190

1974

59

Fiji

.

is

195 281

1

Oceania:

tries increased.

leading producer of copra

183

1973

2,730

Total

was again 70 percent. Only in the past few years has the proportion produced by the major producer-exporter coun-

The

1972

1,252 61

Other

1965, their it

1971

Asia:

produced

share was 70 percent; and in 1970,

1970



fL7

re-

of rainfall shortage in the main

producing areas that started early in 1972 and continued through January

Americas* Mexico Other Total

136 66 202

126 187

118 62 180

201

140 65 205

3,319

3,148

3,232

3,795

4,319

3,861

3,929

2,124

2,015

2,068

2,429

2,764

2,471

2,515

61

115

1974.

With ter,

rainfall

back

to

normal or

Grand bet-

production in the Philippines could

increase

by

14 percent

to

1,280,000

is

Coconut 1

oil

4

Preliminary.

2

tons in 1975.

Indonesia

total

the second largest pro-

ducer of copra, and the 1974 output October 14, 1974

in

Commercial production on the basis of the combined copra equivalent of exports excluding nuts used for food. 3 Includes Sabah and Sarawak. 4 64 percent of copra. Page 9

— generally higher prices for this type of

German Tobacco Difficulties Dampen U.S. Export Prospects nited States tobacco exports to West Germany depressed in recent years by a declining market share

U



—may

face

more of

same

the

the

in

to less-expensive cigarettes.

else-

where.

Among

competitors

U.S.

these

Germany’s second

are

largest supplier

cheaper varieties to help curb spiraling

in 1973 with 8.3 percent of the market; Turkey, 8 percent; Greece, 6.5 percent; and the People’s Republic of China, an

prices.

estimated 6 percent. Also, Brazil

These price increases already have made their impact on German tobacco consumption, bringing a halt in 1973

percent of total imports) and Argentina

near future as a beleaguered domestic tobacco industry turns increasingly to

growth

to the long-term

and depressing

it

in cigarette use

Added

again in 1974.

this are difficulties caused by the smoking and health controversy, plus economic uncertainties at home and the leading market for Gerin Italy

(1.8 percent)

importance

(4.4

have been of increasing flue-cured

the

in

while Mexico (1.5 percent)

is

man

cigarette exports.

On

hand,

other

the

some help from

exports have received the

devaluation

of

the

dollar.

toward more

a developing trend

bodied cigarettes

tobacco

U.S.

—which

been

having

advertised

a rising

helping

a

at

T cent





manufacture of cigarettes. Here again, however, U.S. share of the market was off slightly in 1973 from the year before to 30.4 peris

used

German

In cigars, use of a

new low

the

in

cigarette manufacture.

American tobacco

of 0.6 percent

hit

and

last year,

In addition, the the

U.S.

combined

average cost of U.S. tobacco to

Nonetheless,

remains higher

it

Community continued

underlined by West Germany’s

Behind the changing composition of German tobacco trade is a substantial

ments

is

tobacco

increase in retail prices in recent years.

the

as

status

world’s

with

importer,

largest

purchases

1973 totaling 321 million pounds valued

$263

The sharp jump

calendar

in

many

German tobacco averaging some

in

retail

products

last

20 percent

of

prices

year

—was

from

other third countries.

percent.

develop-

types.

in price

than the lower-quality tobaccos

wrapper

these

German

more competitive with other

it

United States

3 percent-

the

importers by nearly 16 percent, making

use of smoking tobacco

fell

effect of

mark’s revaluation in 1973 reduced the

age points from the 1972 level to 19.2

of

for

general

and

devaluation

dollar

tobaccos such as those produced in the

The importance

of

pennypinching.

full-

sales.

time

as

seen

is

German demand

sustain

tobaccos

U.S.

he bulk of U.S. tobacco sold in Wect Germany about 97 per-

cent of

—may help maintain U.S.

years

for

being light and mild. This trend

supplier of burley.

And

require quality

Use of more flavorful cigarettes, on the other hand, continued its steady growth of recent years, accounting for 20 percent of the market in 1973. The increasing popularity of American and domestic-made French-type cigarettes has contributed to the advance and prompted German manufacturers to place more emphasis on this quality. Even the nation’s leading brand is moving toward fuller bodied types after

market,

to



are

responding to spiraling prices by shifting

caused tobacco importers to look

Italy,

when consumers

cigarette at a time

In the trade policy area, the so-called

applied by the European

tariff

to be a difficult problem for U.S. tobacco. The wrapper tariff a special duty on high-priced tobaccos hits most strongly at U.S. types, which accounted for a third of this category in 1973. Still, however, the





the

progressive devaluation of the dollar, as

outcome of an increase in the excise tax in 1972. As a result, German cigarette consumption reversed a 4-5 percent

well as the fact that the parity of the

cigarettes re-exported

yearly growth rate, sliding 0.8 percent,

most U.S. tobacco out of

from other countries, duty-free tourist import quotas, and a certain amount

while the declining trend in cigar sales accelerated to 8 percent in 1973. Pipe tobacco sales also fell by almost 3 per-

1973.

at

million. In addition, as

may have

a billion cigarettes

country

1973 as a

in

as

entered the

result of direct im-

ports of international brands, plus imports of

German

Community’s

;

unit of account versus the

mark remained

at

DM3.66, helped keep this class in j

of illegal trade.

1974 shipping the country 103 million

Only the consumption of fine-cut smoking tobacco largely used for rollyour-own cigarettes increased, by

pounds of tobacco, valued

nearly 12 percent.

The United

an im-

States has been

portant participant in this trade, in

This was exceeded

the previous year. in quantity

1.17 million the United

only by U.S. shipments of

pounds

at

Kingdom

$146 million

in fiscal

1974;

to in

Japan was the second most im-

portant

market,

pounds valued

At

$111 mil-

at

gain of about 12 percent from

lion, for a

value,

fiscal

the

at

same

89

taking

$120 time,

share of the

EC

membership,

tastes,

however,

the

German

market, as

changing

consumer



Lower manufactured-product imports and higher exports did permit the industry to step up output of all such products, except cigars, whose output suffered from both poor foreign trade performance and a declining domestic market. cigarettes

nicotine

in

production and sales

claiming

continued

slower rate

— and

A

lso in this area, the

EC Commission

has proposed that the

of the

EC

first

stage

tobacco tax harmonization be

extended by a year

The German

until

June 30, 1976.

industry believes this ex-

tension will give

it

the extra time needed

to consolidate opposition forces within

The growth of

and the need to economize has

Page 10



million

million.

United States has seen a gradual erosion in its

cent.

The German Government has attempted to have the EC remove the tariff, but most sources believe success is mce likely to come through multilateral trade negotiations now underway.

in

—only one

to

be

1973

low

but

at

the

Community

against a predominantly

in

ad valorem tax system, which would

a

carry a heavier tax burden for higher

percentage point

accounted for about 25 percent of the German cigarette market. The growth abatement is related to the

priced cigarettes. However, there

is still

the possibility that, before the expiration

date of the

made

first

to reach

an attempt will be agreement on the final

stage,

Foreign Agriculture

— of tobacco excise tax into specific

split

and ad valorem components. In addition to

Germany

import trade,

amounts of tobacco



tobacco

re-exports large

1973

in

Moreover,

sulted in serious marketing difficulties

privately that over the long term price

—up

cigar leaf

sizeable

its

German-type Geudetheimer from 60 metric tons in 1971 to about 800 in 1973 and an estimated 1,200-1,500 in 1974 has reof

tion

nearly



German tobacco

grown

dustry as been quick to deny the rumors,

vending machines are being remodeled for the sale of higher priced cigarettes.

admitted

has

industry

the

increases appear unavoidable. But

30,000 metric tons, mainly Indonesian

for

huge cigarette which expanded sharply export trade to about 9.3 billion pieces in 1973 from

under contracts with dealers. Industry

afraid of

what

sources state that the Italian Geuderthei-

knowing

that

mer

reached the point where further hikes

cigar leaf. It also has a



5.2 billion the year before



tax and retail price increases.

after the

More than

decade ago,

three

times shipments

these

exports go largely to Italy, the

a

Netherlands, Belgium, and Switzerland;

at

of this type

of very good quality and

is

lower

considerably

a

sells

than

price

Germany Geudertheimer. The result has been a German attempt to have exports of this type subsidized, plus efforts to switch

view

In

sharp trade gains occurred in the latter

some of of

acreage to burley.

this

such

difficulties,

it

is

three last year as a result of their lower

hardly surprising that the number of

excise taxes.

German tobacco growers dropped by

this

mean

could

have

prices

it

is

to sales,

already

could have serious repercussions.

market continues to be by the smoking-and-health which has moved more and more

Finally, the

affected issue,

into the focus of public attention. Al-

ready, there have been serious attempts

German Parliament to obtain a complete ban on tobacco advertising. While the issue is still undecided, the

in the

German

nearly 3 percent during the past 2 years.

tobacco growers are being more dramatically affected by the consumption

considerable restraint exercised by the

cut than either tobacco-product output

Those who remain continue efforts to further mechanize tobacco cultivation, especially in view of a growing shortage

or trade. Following an initial surge in

of farmworkers.

tide

On

domestic

the

EC Common

production after the Policy

cultural

went into

for

fell

2.9 percent to 3,936

However, because of

1973.

in

unusually high yields, production rose

Contributing to the reversal in plantings last year

the fact that growers

is

overextended themselves when they enlarged their area by 24 percent during the

first

3 years of the

CAP. This was

due in part to encouragement by dealers entering into contracts with growers and obviously overestimating the forthcom-

demand

ing

heavily

for

subsidized

domestic tobacco.

That surge

demand never

in

material-

ized, while instead cigarette sales

slowed

and the decline

accele-

in cigar sales

rated.

In addition, the pricing mechanism of the EC’s filled

Tobacco

CAP

farmers’ hopes

the

has not

ful-

of high

re-

The standard or target prices and buyers’ premiums set by the Community turns.

for

German

tobacco

—important

setting

1.5 to

As

contract

4 percent, respectively, a result,

the

in 1973.

average return to

growers for their 1973 crop

is

estimated

have fallen 2 percent below that from the 1970 crop. The placing of a growto

ing portion of the domestic crop into

lower quality grades

between

growers



a perennial issue

and

buyers

—had

largely contributed to this price trend.

In addition significant

to these

problems, the

expansion in Italian produc-

October 14, 1974

German ward

industry

may

advertising

in

off a legal ban. Nonetheless, the

of anti-smoking campaigns

pected to

rise in

coming

is

ex-

years.

for a consolidation this year of

is

level,

a

somewhat lower

1973

cigar output,

and a moderate increase in the manufacture of smoking tobacco. The overall remaining

at

be

German

use of tobacco

about the 1973

level,

and

use of American tobacco also staying at

around 90 million pounds; 85 percent of the American tobacco will be flue-

and

cured,

most

of

the

remainder,

Taiwan Trade Continued from page 4

from 40

for 1973-74 production range

upon

cents to $1.33, depending

quality.

There is no requirement to purchase the total crop produced.

Sorghum

delivered price during the

1973-74 season

is

about 13 cents per

kilogram. burley.

Overhanging the are a

that could

Germany’s future

affect

consumption and trade. One is the general economic condition of the country, including its impact on foreign labor. Strong economic growth so far has attracted over 3 million foreign migrant workers to Germany, and these workers now account for slightly over 8 percent of Germany’s total cigarette usage.

To maintain

this

labor force, a favorable economic situation will be necessary. Similarly,

there

is

concern

its

cigarette production.

To

redress

balance of payments, Italy has re-

cently taken steps to curtail imports of

these and

numerous other products.



accelerated

by



rising

costs

of

and energy there have been rumors that another price hike is in the offing for cigarettes. Although the inlabor

is

set at

price,

de-

about 12 cents

1973-74 season.

per kilogram for the

The Government does not make

direct

purchase of corn. In addition to its domestic economic program, Taiwan also is seeking extended economic cooperation with some

Arab

countries.

An

with Saudi Arabia

agreement signed this

year

calls

for

Taiwanese technical assistance in the field of rural electrification equipment, farm machinery, sugar production, chicken raising, and farming promotion.

Agreement has been reached on joint

a

partnership in Saudi Arabia for

production

of

500,000 tons

of

urea

fertilizer annually.

Taiwan’s economic both 1973 and 1974 omists as favorable

is

growth rate in viewed by econ-

when compared with

the slowing effects that inflation has in

Also, with steeply rising production costs

livered to buyer,

about

whether Germany’s cigarette exports can be sustained in view of the economic difficulties now facing Italy, market for half such exports and 3 percent of total

German

Corn minimum purchase

however,

market,

number of questions

dramatically

criteria

growing prices were increased by only 1 percent and for

look

future, the out-

cigarette production at about the

result should

percent to 25 million pounds.

1 1

Looking to the near

Agri-

(CAP) German

Tobacco

effect in 1970, overall

tobacco acreage acres

side,

had

other countries. Despite major cost

increases, higher prices,

for higher wages,

it

and pressures

appears that the

economy

of

expand

1974, although at a somewhat

in

Taiwan

will

continue to

slower rate than in 1973.

Page 11

— fuel

Continued from page 6

and raw materials,

demand omies,” and adds that

it

only due to

is

“the stable character of socialist international relations” that the

Hungarian

economy has not been rocked.

each of the four

had the effect of diverting funds to consumers that were earmarked for improving social conditions and for public works projects. Also, the price changes have raised false economic signals that may retard technological progress. However, the economic disturbances caused by inflacountries, and also have

tion

not yet

are

Economic

apparent.

growth in 1973 actually ran above the annual targets set for the 1971-75 plans.

Even

economic indicators are projected to match the planned annual average rates, which are just slightly below the 1973 achievements. The projected slowdown in the agrifor 1974,

gross

cultural

production growth rate

will

dampen

On

for feed imports.

the

the posi-

record grain crops in

tive side, despite

for higher oilmeal consumption.

Hungary’s outturn of protein feed is Although no significant change is expected in production of sunincreasing.

these countries, feed supplies have not

flowerseed

kept pace with livestock numbers. In

soybean

mid-1974,

However, the price shifts of recent months have tended to perpetuate disparities that existed in

high prices for imports of

pled with

East European Inflation

up

cattle

significantly

and hog numbers were over 1973 levels.

Preliminary reports of domestic small

Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and

duction.

Harvest results in the four countries

— of which potatoes have particular imPoland — are uncertain. portance in

October harvest, average corn

and potato harvests are still possible, in spite of heavy rains in July and August.

Corn

an important crop only in

is

Hungary, which has become a net grain exporter in the past few years. Hungary expected to export grain again in 1974-75 the quantity depending on

sharp

to

tons

in

is

pro-

This decrease signals an

demand

in-

meal imports to substitute for the decline and to assure operation of the mixed feed industry under established conditions and to provide mixed feed to the livestock creased

for

industry in accordance with prescribed

formulas.

The enlarged

Assuming normal weather conditions until the

this

j

A

—equal about 90,000 — expected rapeseed

decline

of corn and nongrain feed components

started

the principal oilseed crop.

of meal

crop.

crop

oilseed

was

In the three other countries, rapeseed is

grain produced) point to a record crop

Hungary. In Poland the expectation is for a harvest matching the record 1973

chief

year on 25.000-35,000 acres.

grain production (85-90 percent of total

in

—the

production

livestock inventories in-

meat outand Government meat purchases the first 5 months of 1974 rose

dicate a capacity to increase put, in

sharply

—by

16 percent

Poland,

in

8

percent in East Germany, and 6 percent in Czechoslovakia.

is

on the expectation of favorable weather pattern than

is

based

a

less

strictly

was experienced either

in

in

fertilizer

1973.

No

cutbacks

application

nor

in

farm mechanization are contemplated. Real income growth is expected to ranee from 4.5 to 5.5 percent in Czechoslovakia. East

and



the harvest.

Germany, and Hungary,

In Czechoslovakia and East Germany, it is expected that grain imports from all sources of 4-5 million tons will level off and that growing demand for feed will be covered by increased grain

production.

to attain a strong 9 percent rate in

Poland. four countries has as

of the

yet arrived at final decisions as to genprice

eral

realinements.

selective price

continue

in

to as

Transitional

changes are expected to

1975, and completely

new

price structures are expected to be de-

veloped for the 1976-80 plans.

much

million

3

from

imports

grain

its

from

sources

tons

all

1973

in

as 4 million in 1974.

on

prices.

As

a

the

basis

world

domestic

prices will have to be adjusted.

A this

severe problem developed earlier

year in the beef export trade, caused

by Italian import barriers and by the European Community embargo. Hungary, the largest exporter of first

later

among

cattle

live

In fiscal 1973 and 1974, U.S. direct

pact, but the

the

four countries,

economic

effects are be-

European

ing experienced in other East

were

countries that rely on earnings of hard

1.5 million tons

tons, respectively,

and

1.4 million

and exports of soy-

Fee

1

/

currencies from exports of cattle and

some U.S. grain reaching East Europe through trans-

is

shipments and through Soviet accounts.

Poland

plans

United States

to

in

from

import

fiscal

the

1975 300,000-

beef.

I

I

To

ease this dislocation, the

bought

an

slaughter

other

tons of cotton. Also, imports from the

beef

United States of cotton, tobacco,

tinues,

countries are to be reduced as

is

four

from

member

of

Hungary,

l

h

and

y

countries helped !Ci

by providing cold storage for meat that had been destined for export to EC

im-

the

cattle

USSR

number

undisclosed

CEMA

p'ied in the official statements, a leveling

in

dis-

prices.

countries.

food price subsidies

higher

level,

posable personal income, and stabilized

600,000 tons of wheat, 700,000-900,000 tons of feedgrains, 200.000-300 000 tons of soymeal, and 10,000-15,000

If

retail

ris-

is

availability

I

of

consequence,

increased

to

exports of grain to the four countries

bean meal 600 000 tons and 500,000

eyond 1975. foreign trade prices among CEMA members will be

renegotiated

due

has sustained the heaviest adverse im-

tons, respectively. Also,

B

ing,

of meat at the

at

Poland, however, will be forced to

expand

None

D

omestic meat consumption

t

w

Cl

Si

If the drastic

change

in

demand

for ‘No

off

of

probably

domestic will

meat

occur.

consumption

Also,

domestic

meat production growth probably will slacken if new markets for meat do not develop in countries benefitting from favorable prices of raw materials, or if demand in traditional markets does not

and tallow miffion

will

CCC will

be financed by a $28 imports

of

oilmeal

continue to increase, but

rethinking

about

con-

emphasis on beef production will benecessary. Hungary has a long-

term goal to convert the dual-purpose cattle industry to beef and milk-produc-

implementing

oil-

ing

seed production will recede only

the

program in fiscal 1974 imported about 3,000 head of U.S. breeding cattle. In fiscal 1973, imports from the United

if

oilmeal-grain price ratio returns to the

For 1974-75, the uncertain market for East European meat exports, cou-

traditional level.

The present

low-protein feed rations

It

continued

pressures for expanding domestic

recover.

Page 12

a

markets

res

come

credit.

Europe’s

East

probably

rice,

hard-currency

in

still

relatively

leave

room

sectors,

and

in

'on

At

this

States totaled about 2,000 head.

Foreign Agriculture

mou till

CROPS AND MARKETS GRAINS, FEEDS, PULSES, AND SEEDS

are estimated at 1.4 million tons, 7 percent below the 1973-74 level,

consumption

but total corn

expected to increase

is

through a reduction in stocks.

Turkey Issues

Wheat Tender Turkey has issued a of

wheat,

with

500,000 metric tons for March-July 1975.

third tender for

scheduled

delivery

Wheat purchases under two previous tenders now 874,000-935,000 tons. key’s tons,

If this

latest

tender

is

wheat imports for 1974-75 will be about compared with 600,000 tons in 1973-74.

total

some

fulfilled,

Tur-

1.4-1. 5 million

at

On September

2, the

Government of Japan announced

the

pulse import quota for the second half of the current marketing year (April-September) at $18.8 million.

The breakdown

of the second half quota in thousands of dollars,

is

as follows:

Azuki beans, 3,780; kidney beans, 9,110; broad beans, 2,450; and dried peas, 3,460. This brings the total allocation for Japanese marketing year 1974 to $35.5 million, compared

Rotterdam Grain Prices and Levies Current offer prices for imported grain

Japan Announces Pulse Import Quota

Rotterdam, the

with

$21

amount

Netherlands, compared with a week earlier and a year ago:

million

reflects

allocated

1973.

in

The increased

dollar

higher world market prices for pulses.

Change from Item

Oct.

Do/.

per bu.

Wheat: Canadian No.

CWRS-13.5.

1

USSR SKS-14 FAQ

Australian

2

previous

A year

week

ago

Cents per bu.

per bu.

8

Do/.

n C) n

O C) O

6.10

6.50

+44

5.63

C) C)

U.S. No. 2 Dark Northern Spring:

14 percent 15 percent U.S. No. 2 Hard Winter:

O

13.5 percent No. 3 Hard Amber Durum Argentine U.S. No. 2 Soft Red Winter. Feedgrains: U.S. No. 3 Yellow corn .... Argentine Plate corn U.S. No. 2 sorghum Argentine-Granifero .

.

sorghum U.S. No. 3 Feed barley

.

.

.

Corn

Sorghum

NOTE:

C)

o +26

4.20 4.31 4.13

+ 20

4.15

+26

+29

O

(*>

5.70 8.16 C) C)

3.16 3.62 3.20

Minimum

copra, set at $590 per long ton, and for coconut oil, at 45 U.S. cents per pound, c.i.f. New York, have now been eliminated in the Philippines. A flexible export pricing system, based on world prices, will be used instead to establish the export sales price of coconut products. As long as the price of coconut oil maintains a reasonable relationship with world prices of other vegetable oils, approval for export will be readily granted. Farmgate prices for copra will also be permitted to fluctuate and will reflect world prices. f.o.b.,

World Soybean Output Declines in 1974

3.27 3.05

World soybean production

for

1974 currently

is

estimated

53.5 million metric tons, 7 percent below the record 1973 volume of 57.9 million tons. This projection is based on the

10.29

+ 104

7.00

0 0 0

0 0 0

0

September U.S. crop estimate of 1,317 million bushels, com-

Wheat

Not quoted.

+49 +43

6.40 8.10 C) C)

C)

Philippines Ends

Coconut Product Prices Minimum export prices for

at

Soybeans: U.S. No. 2 Yellow EC import levies:

1

o

OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS

pared with 1,567 million

in

1973.

The

indicated decline in

.41

.24

U.S. production reflects a 7 percent reduction in acreage as well as a 9 percent decline in yields. The drop in yields was

2

Basis c.i.f. Tilbury, England. Price basis 30- to 60-day delivery.

due

to unusually wet, spring

weather that delayed plantings,

followed by a hot, dry summer. Since September

1,

frosts

Frost Strikes

have damaged the crop, and this this year’s final soybean harvest.

Corn in Mexico An estimated 700,000

damaged by an Mexico. Corn

producer, with a volume of 7 million tons, 2 million above

production prospects also have been reduced by an equal

where a crop of 496,000 tons is sharply above the 272,000 tons produced in 1973. Increased plantings also were evident in a number of minor producing countries, including Paraguay and Colombia, and further gains are expected in 1975.

early

September

northern

production

is

tons of corn were

frost that hit a five-state area in

tier

now

conditions, including drought

of states and Hurricane

Fifi.

Total corn

estimated at about 8.4 million tons, com-

pared with 9.2 million tons in 1973-74. Imports for 1974-75 October 14, 1974

likely to further

reduce

This year, Brazil became the world’s second largest soybean

amount by unfavorable weather in the

is

that of 1973. Substantial gains also occurred in Argentina,

Production of soybeans

this

year will register the

first

de-

Page 13

since

cline

volume. However, production

on record and

largest

1973

1968, 4.4 million tons below the record in

1974

availabilities will

will

compared with 50,100

be the second

be cushioned by the

112-million-bushel (3 million tons) increase in U.S. stocks of

beans on September 1, 1974, compared with the depleted volume of only 60 million for the same date last year.

with

production

with expanded plantings late

will take place

and this should add substantial quantities for foreign market consumption beginning May 1975. Although small, other South American countries also are expected to increase plantings and production in 1975.

1973-74 data

parentheses,

in

are

as

follows:

Ghana,

»

(215); Ivory Coast, 220 (210); Cameroon, 114 (110); Brazil, 175 (240); Ecuador, 55 (62); and the Dominican Republic, 38 (32).

395

(355); Nigeria, 230

More information

Early prospects indicate that a substantial increase in Brazilian

1973-74.

in

Estimates for the major producing countries in 1,000 tons,

will

appear

in the

October 31

issue of

World Agricultural Production and Trade.

this year,

Ghana Ups Cocoa Producer Price Ghana has announced

a 25 percent increase in cocoa producer prices. Cocoa farmers now will receive 15 cedis per

SUGAR AND TROPICAL PRODUCTS Cocoa Council Revises Prices and Quotas At

a recent

London meeting

of the

Cocoa Council

governing body of the International Cocoa Agreement

member

43

the

price range under the

Agreement

Jamaica has signed

a

agreement to

1-year

supply the Mo’

range and reduced export quotas by 87,900

The new

PRC Buys Sugar From Jamaica

the

nations approved a 6.5-cents-per-pound increase

for the price

metric tons.

— —

60 pounds (21.75 U.S. cents per lb.), compared with 12 cedis per 60 pounds (17.4 U.S. cents per lb.) paid previously.

will

(PRC) with 10,000 long tons of 1974 crop. The price is US$528 per ton

People’s Republic of China

sugar from the

(about 23.5 cents per

lb.).

This

is

the

first

time that Jamaica

be 29.5-38.5 cents per pound, compared with 23-32 cents

has agreed to

previously.

Kingdom, Canada, or the United States. Negotiations reportedly are to continue on a long-term arrangement, under which

COCOA EXPORT QUOTAS BY COUNTRY [In

Jamaica

1,000 metric tons]

is

sell

sugar to a country other than the United

to supply sugar to the

New

Country

Ghana

quota

Old quota

545.0 289.1 212.1 188.4 118.3 26.5 1,379.4

Nigeria Ivory Coast Brazil

Cameroon Togo Total

PRC,

taking into consideraperce

tion changes in production costs

580.9 307.8 224.0 200.6 126.0 28.0 1,467.3

each year.

Sugar output in Jamaica from the 1974 crop amounted to the best since the record 506,000 tons in loans to producers, according to a Sugar

some 378,000 tons, 1965. Government

cc

Industry Authority spokesman, should raise output to about 450,000 tons annually in the next 3 years. for

Australian-Malaysian

Foi

The Agreement, which became

June 30, 1973, has had little influence over the cocoa market. The purpose of the Agreement was to stabilize cocoa bean prices within a given price range by using export quotas, which are reduced as prices fall, and a buffer stock from which sales are to be made when prices approach the upper end of the range. The export quotas have never been implemented as cocoa prices effective

have remained well above the price range and the buffer stock has not accumulated because of tight supplies. Thus, the revised price range and export quotas will have

no impact on

the current cocoa market, but will provide a higher support

base for the Agreement.

World Cocoa Bean Production

Up

Slightly in

World cocoa bean production for 1974-75 is forecast at million metric tons, up percent over the 1973-74 African production

is

expected to reach 1,035,800 tons,

which is 7.7 percent above the 1973-74 outturn of 961,800. South American production is forecast at 279,100 tons. This is

will deliver at least 1.65 million

laysia

during that period. This

produ

metric tons of sugar to Mais

a substantial

increase in

average annual deliveries from about 70,000 tons per year to

about 275,000 tons.

As Malaysia

in recent years has been importing about 340,000 tons, Australia will now supply the bulk of its re quirements. Small quantities of refined sugar are expected tc continue to be imported from the People’s Republic of China

tv?:

AND VEGETABLES

Industry

Brazil's Juice

1

harvest of 1.45 million. Reflecting improved weather conditions,

by re

Australia and Malaysia recently signed a new sugar supply agreement. The new agreement supersedes the previous agreement and covers the period 1975-80. It provides that Australia

FRUIT, NUTS,

1974-75

1.46

Sugar Pact Signed

down

sharply

from

the

previous

season’s

harvest

of

348,100 because of smaller crops in Brazil and Ecuador. North American production is forecast at 92,200 tons, up slightly over the 1973-74 harvest of 86,000. Production in Asia and Oceana is forecast to reach a record 54,200 tons,

Page 14

Proposes Export Controls Brazil, the world’s leading exporter of frozen concentrate(

orange Europe,

juice, its

is

concerned about slow

largest

market and

also the

early season sales

major destination

t(

for

U.S. exports the past two seasons.

Adding to the problem of marketing this year’s recor< commercial orange crop, most of which is processed, were th< suspension of a major processor from export trading (allegedl' for selling below the Government’s minimum export price— Foreign Agricultun

Ore

MEP)

and the bankruptcy of another. Although no official announcement has been made, producers and processors reportedly have accepted a Government resolution aimed at solving some of the industry’s problems. The resolution provides that under Government auspices, Industry Association

a Brazilian Juice

(ABRASUCO)

formed from industry representatives. Private firms I

as

usual, but

all

sales

be

will trade

made through ABRASUCO.

be

will

will

The suspended processor

will be eligible to participate. Also, quota for 1974 crop juice exports will be set at 110,000 metric tons. This compares with calendar 1973 shipments of about 120,000 tons. Under the resolution, the

a global export

Government and the

will set prices for

MEP

will

oranges sold to the processor,

be maintained

at

$560 per

ton.

been reported that the Brazilian Government will purchase at the MEP all unsold juice for which an export quota has been issued. It

also has

U.S.

May

Canning Firm Invest in Greece

According to

well-known San Francisconew fruit and vegetable canning operation in Greece. The cannery reportedly would involve an initial capitalization of about $4 million and be developed as a joint venture between the U.S. firm and the Investment Bank of Greece. The U.S. firm would own 50 percent of the new fruit and vegetable cannery.

:

Mexico, Pakistan, Turkey, Australia,

American

countries.

Aggregate output in Communist countries is projected at 1973-million bales, down from 22.2 million estimated for the 21.6

A

1974-75

is

expected to be more than offset by a decline in production

in

74 season.

crop

slightly larger Soviet

the People’s Republic of

in

China (PRC) from the record 10.3

million bales harvested in 1973-74 to around 9.5 million in the current season.

(The estimates for the

PRC

are signifi-

cantly higher than those previously published, and are part

FAS, Washington, in consultaEconomic Research Service and the U.S. Agri-

of a revised series prepared by tion with the

Hong Kong.) With the September estimate of 13.2 million

1974cultural Officer in

United

world

the

States,

output

cotton

of

bales in the

indicated

for

75 is 63 million bales. This compares with 62.7 million produced in the preceding year.

DAIRY AND POULTRY

a trade report, a

based canning firm will invest in a

,

increases expected in

Nigeria, and several South

Danish Broiler

Cutbacks Continue

A

3-week Danish cutback

in chick hatchings in

May

re-

portedly was insufficient to bring broiler production in line

with

consumption.

For

this

further

reason,

cuts

to

keep

storage stocks from mounting are required.

The new program, covering 4 weeks

in

August-September,

provided a subsidy for the slaughter of broiler breeder hens. The subsidy to the farmer was equivalent to 15-75 U.S. cents

COTTON

per bird, and also covered slaughtering and processing costs.

Even with cutback programs, some Danish slaughterhouses have to shut down in December making appropriate

Depressed World Market

— —

will

For Textiles Continues For some months world by reduced

sales,

production.

The

where

textile

prior adjustments in chick placements

markets have been marked rising pipeline inventories, and curtailed

situation

textile

is

most severe

in

the

of those countries’ textile industries and plans for expansion'. is

also

slack in Western

Europe and

in

in

economic

activity

have exacerbated the sluggish

demand

aimed

textile

raw cotton. This larger-than-usual raw cotton stocks ing the

for

at

curbing inflation

market, adversely is

being

total

74,000

metric tons.

EC Donates Nonfat Dry Milk To Food Aid Programs

A

countries such as Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Reductions

avoid exceeding

Far East,

exports play a major role in the economic health

'However, activity

to

1974 quotas on broiler output, which nationally

affect-

compounded by

in foreign countries

and

the prospect that world production in the current season will

recent European

Community

regulation provides for the

donation of 41,000 metric tons of nonfat dry milk to developing countries and international agencies.

Among

the top re-

World Food Program, 20,000 metric tons; the Red Cross, 3,000; India, 2,750; and Bangladesh,

cipients are the

International

2,000 metric tons.

exceed world consumption.

World cotton prices have been declining sharply since last January and now are about 60 cents a pound, landed Northern Europe. Foreign offers tend to shade U.S. prices by larger margins and foreign buyers are limiting purchases to current fill-in

Canada Suspends Egg Import Quota, Ups Prices On September 16 the Canadian Government suspended egg import quotas

requirements.

(

that, since

May, had protected

the

Canadian

egg price support system.

Foreign Cotton Production

About Unchanged

in

1974

Production of cotton outside the United States is placed at 49.8 million bales in 1974-75, about unchanged from the 49.7 million bales harvested last season. In foreign non-

Communist

countries, production

is

estimated at 28.2 million

up from 27.5 million in 1973-74. Smaller crops in Egypt, Syria, and India are more than offset by the significant

ibales,

October 14, 1974

Possibly in view of rising U.S. egg prices, the Ontario Egg Marketing Board reportedly has further increased the producer egg price by 5 cents to 65 cents per dozen at the farm. With the foreign exchange discount, duty charges, and transport costs between the United States and Canada, the price level

is

be profitable to

new

below the point at which it would import eggs from the United States. Com-

probably

just

parable wholesale prices for eggs in

New York

are currently

about 65 cents per dozen.

Page 15

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

U.S.

WASHINGTON. D

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FOREIGN AGRICULTURE

WORLD COPRA OUTPUT RECOVERING FROM

1973

DROUGHT

Continued from page 9

imposed

countries

about one-fourth of its copra crop, and most of this volume historically has been in the form of copra. Since 1973, there have been restrictions on experts of copra. The 1974 exports, in terms of oil, are forecast at 70,000 tons, with 1975 likely to be at about the same

on ex-

restrictions

ports.

The Philippine export imposed

in

tax differentials

February 1974 sharply curexports. By mid-1974,

copra

tailed

further decisions relating to quotas and taxes

—apparently

coconut

oil

—added

boost

to

level.

oil

exports.

Lanka banned copra and coconut

Sri

half is

two-thirds

to

of the

exported. This year, ex-

ports of oil probably will total about

80.000 tons

in

rise

to

about

1975.

New Guinea

Papua it

may

and

50.000 tons,

exports most of

copra crop, with about two-thirds of going as copra and one-third as

Exports in forecast at

oil.

1974 and 1975 are both 75,000 tons (oil basis).

exports in an effort to assure ade-

quate domestic supplies. Indonesia continued

on

restrictions

its

copra and coconut

exports

of

Philippines

ducer of coconut

ewes.

Continued from page 8

producers must have a

is

In the past, Alberta sheep producers have been reluctant to expand because of uncertain markets and low prices. But Government incentive programs

and the new plant

the

pro-

biggest

pand

oil

The Alberta Government in March a new incentive program de-

announced

encourage

signed

Shipments of copra in June 1974 were only 18,600 tons, compared with 81.400

production. Also, a

Coconut

the oil

same

month

of

exports in June were 34.500

below the 39,600 tons June 1973. Exports for all of 1974 are forecast at 850,000 tons (oil equiva-

in

down

start until April

6 percent from the 902,000

tons in 1973.

The 1975 Philippines

In

forecast of exports is

for

basis). This total

the

1.4

1

million

from the tons

ton

world export

Page 16

exports

sheep

incentive

1975.

1,

such assistance,

minimum

of 40

Scotia, a

new

who purchase

flocks.

only

A

incentive pro-

sheep

or select addi-

expand their budget of $50,000 has been set

for grants of assistance to producers

of $15 per

*

U. S.

ewe up

to a

Nova

Scotia has land available that

has excellent potential for sheep pro-

A

duction.

maximum 250

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

:

1974 582 - 176/13

killing plant at

River John

has a capacity of 8,000-10,000 lambs per year, which guarantees an inspected quality

product for the local market.

The program’s

objective

is

to increase

the breeding flock by 5,000 ewes and

help

make Nova

Scotia self-sufficient in

the production of fresh lamb.

With

this official

encouragement

expansion of sheep flocks,

Nova

for

Scotia’s

output of wool can be expected to

in-

Wool production

in

crease

Nova

1974.

in

Scotia in 1973 accounted for 3.4

percent of total Canadian wool production.

The new Federal lamb ing system

tional breeding females to

up normally

increased

new lamb

offers financial assistance to

breeders

(oil

total.

Indonesia

Nova

gram

would be 71 percent

million

to

program promulgated in Alberta in August offers sheep producers an incentive of $10 per ewe lamb to retain top quality 1974 ewe lambs for breeding purposes. The program is retroactive to Ju'y 1, but Davments will not

1973.

tons, 13 percent

lent),

are ex-

and thus increase wool well as meat output.

percent from the same period of 1973.

for

Innisfail

their flocks

production as

down 44

tons (oil equivalent),

at

pected to encourage producers to ex-

and thus the main exporter. Copra and coconut oil exports during January-June 1974 totaled

tons

eligible for

ewes.

limit exports into early 1975.

The

To be

Canadian Wool

oil.

These restrictions have considerably reduced the availability of copra and coconut oil entering world trade in the 277,000 first half of 1974, and may continue to

of

About

production

its

Exports from Sri Lanka reached a low of 20,000 tons (oil basis) in 1973. In recent years, most of the exportable

to the uncertainty over future

coconut oil

designed

on the world market

prices

part of the crop has been exported as oil.

established

Canada on April tive

weight

producers

1 1

ranges to

raise

carcass grad-

by Agriculture

abolishes restric-

and thus permits heavier,

meatier

lambs without risk of penalty. Producers who had been pressing for the change

welcomed the Federal Govnew grading system.

since 1972,

ernment’s

Foreign Agriculture