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Historic,

Do

not

Archive Document

assume content

scientific

knowledge,

reflects current

policies, or practices.



f7 Uf-d

7//^

FOREIGN AGRICULTURE April

5,

1971

U.S. exports and global farm trade

rise

strengthens

.

_

*

Soviet farm

output sets

new record

*

mTIORAL

4SBWtT » AGRICULTURAL LlBi

APR cu fljE«r

,

1

4

1971

seriai/records

.

Foreign Agricultural Sprvirp

°

U.S. DEPARTMENT

OF AGRICULTURE

L

FOREIGN AGRICULTURE •

VOL. IX



No. 14

April

5,

1971

In this issue: in Farm Products Is “WorkExports Rise and Global Farm Trade Strengthens By Clarence D. Palmby

World Market

2

ing”

4

— U.S.

Italy’s

Meat Output Lags Behind Consumer

Demand

By

R. L.

Beukenkamp

5

Problems Hamper Poultry Industry Development in Italy By R. L. Beukenkamp

6

Argentine Grain Output

7

1969 Setback Erased as Soviet duction Sets New Record

Farm

Down Farm

Pro-

Output, Exports Have Good

10

Kenya’s Year

11

U.S. Meat Imports at 1970 Level This Year Soviet Union Continues To Take More U.S.

Hides 12

Canada Encourages Barley Deliveries New Grain Policies Set for Canada

13

Crops and Markets

This week’s cover:



U.S. soybeans a leading item in world trade. For a discussion of how the world market in farm products is working see article beginning

Trade

in livestock

and wheat

is

heavy

in

world market.

this page.

Clifford

M. Hardin, Secretary of Agriculture

Clarence D. Palmby, Assistant Secretary for International Affairs

Raymond

A.

and Commodity Programs

Ioanes,

Administrator,

Foreign Agri-

cultural Service Editorial Staff:

Kay Owsley Janet

Patterson, Editor

Associate Editor; Faith Marcellus P. Murphy, Isabel A. Smith, Barr, Jane V. Foster, Katherine Janka. F.

Beal,

Payne,

Ann

L.

Advisory Board:

Kenneth F. McDaniel, Chairman; Horace J. Davis, Anthony R. DeFelice, Robert H. Ingram, Leonard B. Kelley, Kenneth K. Krogh, J. Don Looper, Donald M. Rubel, Larry F. Thomasson, Raymond E. Vickery, Quentin

M. West, Joseph W.

Willett.

Use of funds for printing Foreign Agriculture has been approved by the Director of the Bureau of the Budget (May 1, 1969). Yearly subscription rate, $10.00 domestic, cents.

Order

$13.00 foreign; single copies 20 Superintendent of Documents,

from

Government Printing

Office, Washington,

D.C. 20402.

this magazine may be reprinted freely. Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA or

Contents of

Foreign Agricultural Service.

Poge 2

Foreign Agriculture



World Market Is

"Working" — U.S. Exports Rise

And

Global Farm Trade Strengthens

CLARENCE

By

Farm Products

in

D.

PALMBY

million bushels as beans or meal

— almost

two-thirds of the

increase in use.

Assistant Secretary of Agriculture

We now

have 55 percent of the entire world market for and meal. This is a remarkable record, and one that certainly reflects the working of the market. Prices of soybeans are determined by the market. There is no subsidy on soybean exports. And we have duty-free entry for soybeans in major markets. oilseeds, cake,

The United this

States

June 30

will

is

setting a

number of

trade records in

Total farm exports in the year ending

export year.

approach the $7.5

billion level



Of

previous record established in 1966-67.

far above the

com-

this total,

mercial sales for dollars will be in the neighborhood of $6.5 billion,

setting a record for the

United States

The

second straight year.

will also export a record

volume of farm prod-

Our soybeans are moving at an expanding rate into the European Community, where we have duty-free bindings. Our soybeans have good access into Japan, and our exports remarkable nation continue to grow. Certain barriers we are negotiating for their removal. The market is working in grains. Wheat prices at Rotter-

to that

ucts this year.

In the 1970 crop year, almost one cropland acre out of

every four produced for the export market. are exporting well over one-half the

of 23 million acres.

We

In soybeans,

1970 crop



we

a harvest

are exporting well over one-half of

our wheat crop, two-thirds of the

rice crop,

remain, and

and one-third of

the cotton crop.

But there is a more subtle meaning to what is taking place the world market this year. For some years, many of us have been concerned about the working of the market and the many restraints and impediments that sometimes prevent the market from working as it should. We have worried about these obstacles in our own marketing system and in the world. We have been trying to do something about them. in



dam

are the highest they have been in almost a decade.

this is true at

The feedgrain

dam

is

ning behind in

—so important

to our agriculture



is

This kind

not easy.

virtues of liberal trade are not universally recognized. is

a long way The growth

The

There

to go.

farm exports this year came because the market is working. We have proof what the market can do despite all obstacles to move farm products from the people who produce to the people who consume. That is the real underlying meaning of this year’s trade figures: The international market is working. The market is working in soybeans. Much has been said about the growth in soybean acreage and production in the past 15 to 20 years. What is not so fully realized is the extent to which overseas shipments have accounted for this. In the past 15 years, we have increased soybean production by 764 million bushels. Of this, we are exporting over 500 in



April

5,

1971

is

similar.

last year’s totals;

The price of corn at RotterOur corn exports are run-

corn blight

both shipments and price.

is

of course a factor

Our exports of

barley,

oats,

and grain sorghums are at a higher level, reflecting a continued growth in demand for feed in Europe, Japan, and many other countries where livestock and poultry economies are

there

of effort

story

the highest since 1956-57.

permit production shifts in line with these objectives. striving to encour-

are

Japan has once again increased its imports of U.S. wheat. Eastern Europe and the European Community are importing more U.S. wheat. Our wheat exports will be at least 125 million bushels above last year.

developing.

Beyond our own borders, we have been

And

when our commercial wheat exports

the largest in history.

In this country, this has brought a move toward a “freeing up” of our agriculture, to let the market function, to let our farmers produce for markets at home and abroad, to

age more liberal market-expansive trade policies.

a time

The market

Almost everywhere and improved diets as economies expand and purchasing power becomes greater. This

is

is

is

a desire

working

in livestock.

for better living

reflected in the continued rise in beef production, in

both importing and exporting countries.

Yet

this increased

production has not been a burden to markets, but has been Prices to cattle producers are up United States, and in all the major producing countries. Another interesting development is the continuing, and apparently expanding import of Western meat and poultry into the Soviet Union mostly from the Netherlands, France, and West Germany. The Russians have also been in the United States looking into possible purchases of beef breeding even across stock. So it seems that the market is working

absorbed at rising prices.

in the





the barriers of ideology. It

is

apparent that the countries of Eastern Europe are

being affected by the growth in economies in that area, as well as the opportunity to produce for export to Western

{Continued on page 16)

Page 3

under adequate refrigeration. Could Italy raise a larger proportion of

its

own meat even though

is likely

it

consumption will continue to rise? Consumption now is only 46 pounds of beef and veal and about 22 pounds of pork compared to 113 pounds and 65.4 pounds in the United States. Yes, but it would require some farthat the country’s per capita

changes

reaching

stock industry



the

in

duction of meat from

American Angus beef

cattle

meet the Italian

Italian

live-

particularly in the procattle.

Over 2 million head of cattle were imported in 1970 by Italy. About 1.5 million were calves for production of veal, and about one-half million were feeder cattle for beef. Most of the calves came from other EC countries, and most of the feeder cattle from East European nations. To replace these im-

public.

ports

entirely,

more

million

Meat Output Lags Behind Consumer Demand

Italy's

cows giving

birth

each year.

to calves

Theoretically rapidly

fairly

needs at least 2

Italy

adult

at

could

Italy

least,

increase

breeding

its

\

herds of cows. But approximately 80 percent

of

cattle

all

Italy

in

of

are

dairy breeds, and the extra milk pro-

duction from

By R.

BEUKENKAMP

L.

more expensive

U.S. Agricultural Attache

with the least prosperous agri-

members of the European Community, has a number of pressing farm problems. But none has more urgency than Italy’s meat situation. In culture of the

1970 imports of beef, pork, lamb, mutand goat meat, or livestock for slaughter cost Italy around US$500 million, or about half the country’s negaton,

tive

meat shortage has been growing for several years and results from

number

of trends. First, as Italy has

and economic consumers have accelerated their purchasing power and changed their food tastes. There has been a marked shift from cereals to increased

strength,

its

industrial

Italian

Estimated.

Page 4

2

Not

dairy

economy.

growing lack of farm labor, and

diffi-

tries,

mod-

mean

farmers are

culty

high feedgrain

milk prices

high

prices,

(most cattle tempted to risk the

not

obtaining financing for

in

ernizing or increasing size and efficiency

Italy

In addition, consumers

In

continue to prefer veal to adult beef.

Although pork raising has made good too

has

consumer preference

a

advantage.

Many

that eating

pork

even

if

essed in

Italians are is

metric tons metric tons metric tons

burden

to

milk were overproduced.

addition,

A

new

increase

and meat kept

1965

financial

in

milk

of high

spite

The type of young

each 3 years ago are only $56 each.

dis-

convinced

OF LIVESTOCK AND MEAT,

if

serious

dairy animals that sold for about $85

hazardous to health

facilities

a

the dairy industry.

swine are slaughtered and proc-

modern

would

17.7 U.S. cents per quart,

prices, there are signs of depression in

progress in recent years in Italy, pork

Item

1

cows could

country’s

switch from milk to beef operations),

cially of beef, is tied to

ITALY’S IMPORTS

Live cattle Beef and veal, fresh and frozen Live hogs Pig meat, fresh and frozen Live sheep and goats Sheep and goat meat

extra

the

Italy has a sensitive equilibrium between milk production and the amount of output and export of specialized cheese, which gives it an economic advantage within the dairy structure of the European Community (EC). Also, the high milk price in Italy, compared with that in other EC coun-

of operations.

balance of trade.

Italy’s

a

and vegetables and meat. Next, while Italy’s meat consumption rocketed by 900 percent over the last 15 years, production advanced only 230 percent. Slow pickup in output, espe-

many

upset

seriously

fruits

Rome Italy,

foods, such as canned

direction in

for

would be the rapid integrated cowwould include han-

vertically

calf operation that

THROUGH

now going

1970 1

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

695,892 253,284 41,696 23,012 307,140

894,212 279,519 125,052 60,975 486,079

1,301,316

1,657,686

1,956,221

324,152 169,448 85,757 570,230

249,558 56,633 65,000 607,845

266,938 123,000 72,574

2,100,000 305,000 400,000 95,000 1,250.000

2,111

O

C)

960

1,046,238 7,328



available.

Foreign Agriculture

I

dling cattle

and

beef

from birth to finishing into on through slaughter and

marketing. Certain conditions already existing in

encourage the establishment of such operations. For example, there Italy could

industry

there

much work

and

shortage.

share

in

agricul-

Italy’s

production to improve their

tural

comes and standards of In the interim,

number are

that

million)

1

325 to 450 pounds to produce veal were raised to 1,000 pounds, not only would farmers have better returns on slaughter cattle but Italy would produce about 195,000 short tons more of red meat a year. annually

On

slaughtered

Also,

at

is

being

in a

But

advances

general,

in the Italian

needs

fresh and daring look at policies

with the

lating the

its

objective

growth of

its

beef industry.

its

feedstuff prices,

more streamlined mar-

arrangements,

keting

above

and,

all,

confidence.

to

in

Italy

particularly

fundamental needs of livestock producers are better financing, lower

done

1970 imports of live pigs for slaughter were approximately 400,000; and imports of pork were about 95,000 metric tons, or up 31 percent from 1969. In

— and

entrepreneurial push and a climate of

country with a general meat

in spite of

try

The

in Italy.

the possibilities of greater utilization of

pig industry,

the large

if

(about

of heifers

US-

educate both consumers and butchers to

in-

living.

First,

demand

an increasing

is

pork

efficient

by the

being conducted

FGC-sponsored imports of U.S. breeding stock are helping to supply more lean-meat slaughter pigs, for which

much land left idle by who have taken up urban emAlso, many farmers are ployment. much in need of a more constructive present

at

is

farmers

are

U.S. Feed Grains Council.

to

take

a

agricultural

of

stimu-

livestock indus-

Resistance

establishing

to

modern, industrialized livestock operations will come from entrenched social, economic, and political attitudes. And Italy needs to revamp its liveindustry

stock

quickly.

sources of calves and

EC

other -

— are

countries and Eastern Europe

but

slowly

owing While

to it

is

up home.

drying

surely

increased

demand

at

expensive for Italy to import

live cattle for feeding,

more expensive

to

it

would be even

import the equiva-

quantity of meat. This

lent

past

Italy’s

feeder cattle

that Italy could

ill

is

a

cost

afford.

the negative side of the outlook

for increased beef production

Italy

in

are high feedgrain prices and low beef prices.

Because of raised feedgrain prices, imported 20 percent less feeder cattle in the first 6 months of 1970

Problems Hamper Poultry Industry

than the same period

Development

Italy

more

difficult to

make

1969.

in

on

a profit

It

is

finish-

from 650 pounds to about pounds the most expensive

ing feeders

1,000



phase of feeding beef animals



as feed-

grain prices go up.

And

the

proposal

Common

to

Market's present

advance

beef

prices

10

percent each 2 years is not likely to stimulate much advance in beef production in Italy in the face of higher feed prices.

In contrast, the future of the Italian pig

industry

looks

During a

bright.

period of increasing

demand up

for meat,

pork producers have

set

cient operations in a

number

fairly effi-

of situa-

Swine numbers had increased to approximately 10 million head by the end of 1970. The production of pork in Italy has tions.

several advantages over beef operations.

By

R. L.

in

Meat-Hungry A

BEUKENKAMP

Italy

confusing maze of antiquated mar-

high feed prices, low and lack of implementation of Common Market regulations and potential aids have left many of Italy’s egg and poultry meat producers

U.S. Agricultural Attache

keting systems,

Rome

farm

in

efficiency,

than

less

advantageous

positions.

Even the urgent need for more domestically raised meat (Italy imported meat products worth about $500 million in 1970) has not stimulated real poultryprosperity, though production of

man

poultry meat did increase 350 percent

between 1960 and 1970. Italy’s very few large-scale egg and broiler raisers

make much

than the smallholders

better profits

who

supply the

bulk of poultry products.

For example, the average farmer

re-

more quick-

ceives

19 U.S. cents to 21

cents per

can be raised on limited amounts of land, and are adaptable to a much wider range of farming. At

pound

for chickens while the

consumer

Pigs reproduce and mature ly

than

present

cattle,

pigs

are

raised

intensively

in

on small farms, big farms, and by cheese factories, where they are largely fed on the byproducts of making cheese from milk. Pigs are concentrated in Italy’s north central provinces, such as Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Tuscany, Umbria, Marches, and Piedmont. Two moves to help the Italian pork Italy

April 5,

1971

pays about

The

triple that price to retailers.

difference

is

distributed

among

a

long and intricate chain of middlemen

and handlers. Farmers on small and holdings claim that to meet production costs they need to be paid about 27 cents per pound. High production costs result both from high feed prices and inefficiency. At the same time the large, auto-

medium

mated,

vertically

integrated

poultry

Page 5

— market their products diand avoid the inefficient intermediaries of distribution and keep most

meat

units

rectly

Argentine Grain Output

of the retail price for themselves.

The

Forecasts

profit structure for eggs is sim-

Producers receive around 2.5 U.S.

ilar.

cents per egg, but production costs on the average

farm are around 3.4 cents

an egg. Only the very large and effiproducers can weather price cient slumps and reap advantages when prices allow a profit.

rise sufficiently to

Consequently,

when

eggs

Italian

oversupply cannot be shipped EC countries because

in

neighboring

to

they are not graded according to stipulations.

more

On

other

the

EC —

of drought

1969-70

hand,

possibly to Brazil, while exports of corn

71

Argentine estimate of the 1970-

wheat crop

production

some

An

may provide some from competition.

obstacle to the entire poultry en-

deavor

in

poultry

Italy is the classification of

raising

as

“industry”

Poultrymen

“agriculture.”

than

therefore

deprived

rather

of financial

are assist-

harvested

just

places

4.2 million metric tons,

at

2.8 million tons below last year’s

output

respite

decline.

and sorghum could approach the record or near record expected from last year’s peak production. Drought and production. The second

the

egg-producing countries such as the Netherlands

country)

with wheat showing an

40-percent

on record. wheat exports from the current year will be negligible except

eggs from the Netherlands (because of among chickens disease Newcastle that

attributed to low prices

problems

Argentine

official

Drought

at

However,

the

1900’s.

greatly

differ

estimates; the

initial

to

re-

of actual crop

final estimates

frequently

area early

the

since

level

planting time

wheat

reduced

portedly

lowest

first

estimate

from was

over a million tons low for the 1969-70

crop and over 2 million tons high for the 1968-69 crop.

Drought

reduced plantings of

also

the current barley, oat, and rye crops.

crops

down 30

percent, 13 percent, and

68 percent, respectively, compared with Even last year’s production last year’s.

operation (it expired December 1970), funds for modernization and expansion were not available in

levels

in

31,

were below the peak production

resulting

bumper crops

in the previous 2 years.

the

drought,

however, there probably

would have been increases in corn and sorghum plantings in 1970-71. The since the mid-1960’s has been toward larger plantings of these two

trend

crops. Estimates place area seeded for

harvest in 1971 at 7 percent higher for

corn and 5 percent for sorghum. However, early season dry weather

and intense heat

damaged sorghum

Plantings of rice are also

down some

at

time of flowering

and where outputs of these crops are expected to be below those resulting from last year’s near ideal growing conditions. Export prospects. Wheat output forecast for 1970-71 is about the same as the quantity needed for domestic conyield prospects for corn

to the point

sumption. Imports sary, especially

may even

be neces-

Argentina exports any

if

bread wheat to Brazil or other traditional markets.

Exports of rye could be negligible, while those of barely and oats could

reach the lowest levels in in

in

many

years.

Exports of corn, sorghum, and rice 1971-72 will depend largely on re-

sults of current

years of the late 1950’s.

and marketing from successive

With the drop in barley, oat, and rye plantings, some of the area normally used for these grains was put into corn and sorghum production. Even without

First estimates place production of these

ance from agricultural funds. For example, when Italy’s second Green Plan

was

28 percent, according to initial Argentine estimates. The sharp decline is

—primarily because

Outputs of corn and grain sorghum are expected to drop some but could still be second

output.

in

all

levels,

estimated

can freely ship eggs to Italy when they have a temporary surplus. These shipments frequently lower prices for doA recent ban on mestic Italian eggs.

temporary

—of

1970-71

production

grains will be below

indicate that output

EC

efficient

of the

Argentina’s

of

and feedgrain

grain

largest

Another factor playing havoc with the Italian egg market is that the Government has never established an agency to implement EC regulations on egg grading.

food

Down

crops to be harvested

March-June 1971.

Italy to poultry farms.

But despite the problems of broiler and egg production and marketing, some other forms of poultry products have made rapid production advances in recent years. In 1970 over 3 million turkeys were produced in Italy; a few years ago production was

nil.

Also, in

same year, 50 million guinea hens were marketed for a total of 60,000 tons of meat although a few years ago the

output was small.

And

Wheat Corn Oats

Rye

agriculture

Exports:

percent of Italy’s

Wheat Corn 3

About

11

Italian

poultry product output was

more

than 600,000 metric tons of meat and 480,000 metric tons of eggs (around 10 billion).

...

Barley

Rough

commercial agricultural production in 1970, or approximately $930 million, was attributable to poultry. In 1970

Page 6

Production:

the overall importance of the

great.

Italy’s

Grain

Grain sorghum

poultry industry to is

ARGENTINE GRAIN PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS

...

rice

...

...

Barley Oats

Rye

1965-66

1966-67

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70

1970-71

1,000 metric tons 6,079 7,040

1,000 metric tons 6,247 8,000

1,000 metric

1,000 metric tons 5,740 6,860

1,000 metric tons 7,020 9,360

1,000 metric tons 4,215

404 480 245

438 540 270

588 690 352

2,130 165

1,380

1,500

217

283

5,539 2,687 116 119

2,202 4,022 55 157

12

Grain sorghum Milled rice

3

3

tons

7,320 6,560



127

1,085

49

35

556

490 360

570 425 111

2

400 372 121 2

2,484 345

3,820

(

407

(

2,262 4,128 172

2,409 3,442

2,150 3,740 80

346 23 422 32

156

208 13

811

46

210 30 1,354 63

)

(

) 2 )

2

)

( 2

)

(

2 (

) 2

(

) 2

)

( 2 (

) 2

(

)

2 Expected to drop. 3 Availability mostly from previous crop year’s producSource: Argentine Grain Board and U.S. Agricultural Attache, Buenos Aires.

forecast. tion.

Foreign Agriculture

1

1969 Setback Erased as Soviet

Farm Production Sets Flocks of Soviet sheep are moved to

The

Union

summer

year ended

than would be expected for such a

less

farm production climbed a reported 5.1 percent above the previous high set

37 percent for sugarbeets. Average increases for other commodities included

These are providing an ample exportable surplus and at the same time leaving more grain on the farms for livestock feeding. Wheat. Gross output last year soared to an estimated 98 million tons from 79.9 million in 1969 (in terms of usable grain, about 80 million tons against

Soviet

last

1968.

Compensating for the poor showing in 1969, when unfavorable weather reduced crop and livestock production, the gain proved a timely addition to 100th anniversary celebrations of

the

Judged in the setting of current needs, however, it was not impressive, and big problems will continue to handiLenin.

cap Soviet agriculture.

According

to

official

Soviet

state-

ments, the value of agricultural production last year reached the equivalent of

$95.2 billion; besides exceeding the pre-

was 0.2 percent above 1970 goal and 8.7 percent above the disappointing 1969 level. While favorable weather was a factor behind vious record, this

for specific

28 percent for grains, 22 percent for 26 percent for sunflowerseed, and 25 percent for meat (including cotton,

poultry).

For 1971, the agricultural production target less

is set

$98.35 billion

at

ambitious goal than

fillment

nonetheless,

is,



a

much

and other inputs were also important. Records were achieved for a number of commodities, including cotton, grain, meat, milk, and eggs and strong advances occurred in wool output and livestock numbers. A few crops like the commercially important sunflower-



over

but

17

still

million

1969’s.

Near record yields of and spring wheats accounted for the gain, while area was

Ful-

62.3

both

assured and will require at least average weather (particularly in terms of pre-

production

large

by no means

1970’s.

less

million).

winter

than

in the past.

Moreover, several of the major inputs for 1971 are notably smaller than the average annual increments called for by the new five-year

Total state purchases of wheat, estimated at 50-55 million tons compared

plan for 1971-75.

tons purchased in 1966.

cipitation).

with 36.1

million

in

1969, were

ex-

ceeded only by the record 56.8 million

They have

en-

abled the Soviets to meet domestic de-

the

the recovery, increased use of fertilizer

Grains advance strongly

mand and add

Although actual output has been shrouded in mysterious silences and conflicting pronouncements, it is evident that the Soviet Union’s 1970 grain crop was the largest ever.

The production used

is

million

figure currently being

— 154 — or 4.4

185 million metric tons usable grain terms

in

With these

to stocks.

larger

wheat stocks on

hand, the Soviet Union

is

export year than

better

addition

to

shipping

to

areas of Eastern Europe, will

expecting a in

1970.

In

grain-deficit

the Soviets

probably be more aggressive this

season in West European markets, par-

Great Britain and West Germany. By the same token, it is in question whether they will be interested in importing more Canadian wheat, except for shipment to the Far East and Cuba. ticularly

more

above the old record set in 1966 and 17 percent more than in 1969. Ironically, this bumper crop was harvested from one of the smallest areas in 10 years an estimated 120.4 million hectares. Average yield made the difference, as it climbed to a record 12.8

than in the previous plan was not met.

quintals per hectare (usable grain basis)

tons from 1969. Increased acreage and

This shortfall was attributed partly to

from the 10.7 quintals per hectare

yield contributed to the gain.

smaller deliveries of fertilizer, machin-

orded

seed



The

registered declines. agricultural resurgence in

1970

helped the country achieve several targets set in the

1966-70 plan. However,

the overall goal of having gross agricultural

1

pastures.

commodities during the plan ranged from 10 percent for wool to

in

1

Record

another 5-year plan on a positive note, as

1

New

output average 25 percent

and other inputs than had been originally targeted. Production advances ery,

April 5,

1971

percent



rec-

Production, estimated at 10.7

Feedgrains.

in 1969.

Reported

Rye.

million tons, usable basis, rose 800,000

Government

from the crop,

at

purchases

73 million tons, are

crease,

wheat

While managing an

in-

these did not fare as well as last year.

Currently, usable pro-

Page 7

duction

of barley,

and oats

corn,

is

estimated at 50.7 million tons compared

with record 47.4 million in 1969,

when

these grains replaced extensive areas of killed winter wheat.

Production of the all-important feedgrain, barley,

around

is

29.5

believed to have totaled

million

compared

tons,

with 26.8 million in 1969, with favor-

weather boosting yields substan-

able tially.

The

usable corn crop

is

up from 9.9 million in 1969. Oats production sank some 200,000 tons to 10.5 million, despite

On

average yield.

in

hog numbers were still 2.8 milthe record January 1, 1963, level. Cattle numbers, although at an alltime high, were only 2 percent more than the January 1, 1967, figure, and the gain in sheep numbers merely brought them closer to normal following their sharp drop during the 1969-70 years, lion

the trade side, the Soviet

Union

probably be able to at least equal 1970 barley shipments of 748,400 tons. Corn trade, however, will remain

off

winter.

Meat.

estimated

at 10.7 million tons,

an increase

of 18.2 million head during the past 2

about

up

Production, after rising only percent in 1968 and 1969, was

1

1970 to 12.3 million

4.5 percent in

tons (including poultry); however, during the first 2 years of the plan period, output had increased at a yearly rate

will

of 7.5 percent.

the

in the

Wool. Production in 1970 was only back to the 1968 level. Milk. Despite improved pasturing

to

last

red if the Soviet Union continues buy for Cuba. (Most previous imports were simply purchased for Cuba and did not enter the USSR.) Net imports, which more than quadrupled between 1968 and 1969 to around 250,000 tons, will also be affected by the cornwheat price ratio in world markets. Livestock production recovers

The traditionally weak showed improvement

livestock sec-

the beginning of 1971

after having

tor at

1970 and

in

back by the severe winter of 1969-70. Gains were not, however, adequate in view of Soviet needs and goals. Livestock numbers. Last year, every major livestock category in the USSR been

set

year, output

was

than

less

per-

1

Dairy herd on collective farm.

cent above 1968’s.

The problems livestock

ones

production

difficult

held back

that have

are

longstanding

of solution.

vesting season

should be upgraded. Disease continues

harvesting losses.

to cause significant losses,

more

build-

and equipment are needed, and animal husbandry skills must be improved to a far greater degree. In the past, low prices paid to farmers ings

for livestock products profitable

field

of

made

this

an un-

and

endeavor,

al-

largest gain being 20 hog numbers. Sheep and goats grew more than 5 percent in number; cattle, 4 percent to an alltime high; and cows, 1 percent. Estimates of

though most prices were raised con-

numbers, as of January

the Soviets should be able to narrow

increased,

percent

the

in

are

1971,

1,

1968

Cattle

Hogs

1970

1969

1971

Mil.

Mil.

Mil.

Mil.

head

head

head

head

97.2 50.9

95.7 49.0

95.2 56.1

99.1

144.0

146.1

135.8

143.2

67.2

Sheep and goats

While problems of and excess

larly wilt,

disease,

particu-

soil salinity

con-

tinued to plague Soviet cotton growers

1970, they received considerably less

in

play in the press than in the past, and

tone was not as urgent as prompted by the poor 1969 crop.

the

Cottonseed.

that

The record cotton crop

yielded an estimated 4.5 million tons of

not yet be enough to bring about the desired results.

Despite

these

livestock

trade deficit

Item

may

siderably last year, the increases

the

given in the following table:

Weather during the growing and harwas much more favorable than in 1969, permitting earlier and more timely planting, cultivation, and thinning and resulting in much smaller

Feed supplies have been persistently inadequate. Expansion is needed in the supply of protein supplements, mixed feed, and roughage; and breeding stock

persistent

and

difficulties,

livestock-product

—provided

there

is

no

siz-

able buying of foreign breeding stock.

Between 1968 and 1969, the trade cit

defi-

more than doubled, reaching

the

equivalent of $86 million. Net imports of red meats will again be quite large

but probably smaller than in 1970.

A

similar situation appears likely for wool,

Largest increases occurred in the so-

tallow,

and

lard.

mainly as a result of improved feed supplies and increased purchase prices. Numbers on private

Cotton leads industrial crops

holdings continued to be retarded by

industrial

cialized

sector,

Government

restrictions

greatly

limit-

last

year,

this

the

com-

modity posted a production increase of to a new record of 6.9 million tons, seed basis. While

1970 advance was en-

new numwhen com-

sown rose only moderately,

couraging to the Soviets, the

area

bers were less impressive

soared to a record 27.1

pared with earlier years. Despite a

Page 8

among

Sharpest gainer

crops

more than 20 percent

ing herd size.

While the

Cotton.

rise

yields

quintals per

hectare from only 22.5 in 1969.

Foreign Agriculture

i

|i

peared favorable in the fall, apparently took a turn for the worse, in some areas

greatly increasing production of feed-

hurting germination, restricting develop-

the plan, as well as on improving ani-

ment of the sunflower heads, and de-

mal husbandry

skills,

laying harvest.

disease

and other aspects of

During the past decade, sunfloweroil have become important

Union

to

Soviet

the

exchange earners. Shipments of the seed and oil in their peak year, 1968, totaled 361,300 and 713.700 tons, respectively, compared with 83,700 and 221,200 in 1965. Shipments declined in 1969 and are believed to have further declined in 1970. Export prospects for 1971 are still uncertain. Sugarbeets. Production for factory foreign

as

use last

year rose

above

10 percent

the low 1969 level to 78.3 million tons.

While area planted gained only slightly, yields were up sharply, primarily as a result of

more timely planting of

beets

cottonseed (before linter removal) compared with 3.7 million in 1969. This

and more soil moisture during spring and early summer. Sugar content of the beets, however, is estimated to have been 0.8 percent lower last year than

gain will help to offset declines in sun-

in

flowerseed and should allow

some

Among

crease in cottonseed exports, which in the past have gone mainly to Lebanon.

Sunflowerseed. other products,

In contrast to most

mated

at

around

is

esti-

8.3 million tons, or a

million less than in

1969.

As

a result

of the lower sugar production, sugar

imports from

Cuba

ly.

5.61

pected this year, primarily because of

million tons,

usable weight,

some 240,000 tons below the

second

straight

year

1969’s,

of

was for

decline.

Area shrank some from 1969, as did the average seed and oil yields. Weather conditions, which had ap-

The

reverse

last

year rose sharp-

situation

a major drop in the

can

be ex-

Cuban sugar

barley



is

by 1975. In expanding grain and livestock production, the Soviets will be faced with

a complex task. Not only must they meet input goals needed to bring about the growth especially in regard to fertilizer usage but they may also have to choose between maintaining grain exports and feeding more to livestock. And they can never discount the uncertain weather, which periodically plays havoc with livestock and grains. Probably the least stress is being placed on sugar production, with the



country



apparently

choosing

tinue sizable imports of

con-

to

Cuban sugar

as

a production supplement.

cated by the 1971-75 agricultural plans, the Soviet

Union

in

1970 continued

switch state farms to a financially

to

self-

supporting basis. Last year, some 5,300 farms, or almost 35

state

their total

the

new

percent of

number, were operating on

The

basis.

intention

in

this

Tobacco. Production increased about 20,000 tons to 220,000, with probably slightly expanded and better results reported from most regions. The Soviet

direct subsidies with indirect price sub-

Union

again in the news last year.

is

a

net

imported of tobacco,

sidies,

to

which would allow

make more economic

One major

farms

were

conclusion of demographic

studies covering 1959-69

movement

ulation

state

decisions.

problems

labor

Agricultural

was

that pop-

out of the country-

from areas

side has been the greatest

already handicapped by a shortage of agricultural labor. ly net gain of

While the

cities’

year-

about 1.6 million people

was probably not

excessive,

the

geo-

graphically uneven rural exodus caused difficulties.

Greatest

creases

population

in

Uzbekistan,

Other agricultural developments

38.1

percentage

de-

were seen in percent; Azerbaydz-

han, 32.1; and Kazakhstan, 24.1.

With the winding up of one 5-year were re-

plan, Soviet officials last year

were the young people to leave rural despite the improvements of reproblems revealed

Other

desire of

vealing goals for their forthcoming one,

areas,

now

cent years; a lack of consideration for

in

effect.

The new plan

(see

Foreign Agriculture Sept. 7, 1970) lays stress on expanding livestock and meat

ting production

production, with a 1975 meat produc-

being;

tion goal of 15.6 million tons

and marking

—27

cent

more than the 1970

Reaching

1971

compared with 20 million tons

change apparently has been to replace

about 60 percent of it coming from Bulgaria. Flax. Gross production of fiber flax was off last year, to around 450,000 tons from 487,000. Acreage continued a downward trend, and yields probably failed to reach the record 1969 level. Soviet exports of flax tow and fiber in 1971 are expected to be off from the 21.700 and 8,300 tons, respectively that were shipped out in 1969.

April 5,

minor

to double to

crop.

with

!i

stock

Aside from the policy changes indi-

1970

in

crop had a disappointing year. Output, estimated at this

breeding

in

the grains, corn production

relatively

still

1969.

Production of sugar

in-

control,

emphasized

also

livestock production.

seed and sunflowerseed increasingly

which are

grains,

this target is

per-

rural workers’ safety, with officials put-

difficulties.

dispatches from

record.

dependent on

ahead of workers’ well-

continued lack of equipments;

U.S.

—Based on

Roger

Agricultural Attache,

Euler Moscow

S.

Page 9

marginally

above

reserve

strategic

Government’s

the

A

level.

long-rains

could result in an import requirement of approximately 100,000 failure

metric tons.

Native Kenyan

stockmen tend herds.

cattle

Shelled corn prices were increased 20 percent as of December 18, 1970, reflecting both the upward movement in world prices and the short domestic

The l ivestock n d u st r y in 1970 was hurt

controls over corn marketing did

by drought

materialize

i

in

northeast

the

An

supply.

anticipated

of

relaxation

but

1970,

in

<

not

complete

a

freeing of marketing within the coun-

and marketing

try

difficulties.

the Minister for Agriculture.

is

A

according to

a possibility,

still

precautionary

import

14,000

of

tons of yellow corn from the United

Kenya's farm Output

States

1970

in

is

caused that year’s

to

rise

in

have agri-

which are only 10 percent as large as farm exports. The Government increased duties from 30 percent to 50 percent on food imports cultural

Exports Have

believed slight

Year

imports,

>

during the year.

Government

reduce wheat

efforts to

stocks during 1970 were successful.

December Kenya’s agricultural production and exports rose during

1970, spurred by

expanding economy, and should again in 1971 if rainfall is normal. Agricultural production during 1970 rose on the strength of adequate long rains (March-May). Larger output of coffee, tea, sugarcane, and milk, and

1971 long rains. But

an

to continue

rise

population.

significantly tea,

higher

prices

for

coffee,

and pyrethrum caused 1970 gross

if

rainfall

is

nor-

mal, agricultural output can be expected

growing faster than Kenya’s And Kenya’s economy as

whole should continue to maintain impressive growth rate of the 1960’s. Even a drought should not unduly impede economic development. Given foreign exchange holdings, coffee stocks, and tourism receipts, food imports could

31,

held 94,000 tons,

or 25

earlier,

the case for corn stocks, this

is

its

just

above the

Wheat

in

pushing hard for producer prices, arguing

that the 24-percent reduction in acreage

already achieved

is

more than enough

to bring about a balance

Export quotas for coffee and tea are likely to be filled in 1971 regardless of

ply and

percent.

October

Farm

exports from

Kenya

plier of considerable tea

the

United

States

—are



a

sup-

made up

to

a

estimated

to

it

for declines in earnings

from

corn, meat, and pyrethrum.

were

about

2Vi

times the previous year’s level, due to

and coffee

have risen 4 percent during 1970. This helped shrink Kenya’s chronic annual trade deficit, which was down one-third from the 1969 level. Although sales to East African Community partner states appear to have slumped, this drop was more than offset by larger shipments to overseas markets (mainly the United Kingdom, West Gremany, and the United States in recent years). With higher prices and larger supplies, increased coffee and tea export earnings

1970,

1,

of

as

stocks,

very heavy long-rains harvest,

and

appears that October 1971 stocks will

continue to be high. tea

quota

in

A

supplemental

1970 prevented a sharp

rise in tea stocks.

Although pyrethrum extract stocks 1970 were nonexistent, pyrethrum exports should rebound by mid- 1971 if in

long rains are adequate.

Kenya’s

—on

corn

unlikely

to

prohibition— since exports

continues

end before

late

1969-70

and 1971

is

or

1972. Corn stocks held by the Maize and Produce Marketing Board in January 1971 were 87,000 metric tons, a substantial improvement over those early

1971

of a year earlier but not as great as

uncertain, due to failure of the 1970 short rains (October-November) and the uncertain adequacy of the

expected. August 1971 corn stocks are

Production are

Pag© 10

prospects

during

expected to total 120,000 tons, about

double the August 1970 stocks yet only

only

interests are

an increase

be financed.

Coffee

is

strategic reserve level.

farm revenue to increase an estimated 9 percent from the previous year’s level. This is slightly above the longterm average annual growth rate of 8

long rains.

percent less

and stocks are expected to drop to about 60,000 tons by the end of September 1971. As than a year

a

the

On

Wheat Board

1970, the

in the

demand and

corn price without an increase in

wheat

the

between sup-

that an increase

price

will

result

in

an-

wheat area. The Government, however, announced there will be no change in the producer price for the 1971 planted crop. The Wheat Board has indicated it may be prepared to increase producer payments without Governmental finanother

cial

substantial

reduction

in

backing.

Of importance

to Kenya’s livestock 1970 were the drought and famine afflicting mainly northIn addition, marketing eastern Kenya. difficulties were created by foot and mouth quarantines. (Under the Kenya

production

in

block quarantine system, this does not necessarily imply increased outbreaks of

foot and mouth.)

Working

Party

An

Inter-Ministerial

currently

reviewing

meat marketing and pricing policies is likely to make recommendations resulting in improved returns to livestock producers in Kenya. Foreign Agriculture

il

Meat Imports To Stay

U.S.

at

1970

Level This Year

Secretary Hardin reported that actual imports for consump-

Calendar 1971 imports of meat subject to the Meat Import are estimated at 1,160 million pounds, according to an announcement by Secretary of Agriculture Clifford M. Hardin

tion of

on March 13. The new estimate is at the same level as that announced last October for calendar 1970. The estimate for 1971 is based upon a new voluntary restraint program which the Secretary of State is negotiating with the governments of the principal supplying countries. These countries have agreed the restraint program should

1970 U.S. meat imports included New Zealand (238.0), Mexico (15.8) (78.4), Canada (77.0), Ireland (67.0), Nicaragua Costa Rica (37.5), Guatemala (23.2), Honduras Dominican Republic (7.7), Panama (5.1), United Kingdom (4.3), and Haiti (1.3).

Law

if

Law



adjusted base quota, the President for 1971

is

1,025 million pounds.

imports which would trigger

is

is

1 1

0 percent of

MEAT IMPORTS 1967-70 UNDER THE U.S. MEAT IMPORT LAW (P.L. 88-482) BY MONTH Month

The

President has issued a proclamation pursuant to Sec2(c)(1) of P.L. 88-482 limiting imports of meats subject to the Act. At the same time he suspended that limitation on the basis that this action is required by overriding economic interests of the United States, giving special weight to the importance to the nation of the economic well-being of the domestic livestock industry. This procedure is the same as that followed with Presidential Proclamation 3993 of June

tion

Growing Soviet emphasis on consumer products and

short

supplies bid fair to maintain U.S. exports of hides to the

In 1969 and 1970 U.S. hide exports to the million pieces

1

from the 383,000 pieces exported

The United

States increased

its

in

—a

significant rise

1965

to

U.S.

exports

Rejections which occurred after entry of 13.5 million 1969 and 17.4 million lb. in 1970. Bureau of Census.

More

Green hides are

;

some

total for that area of the

world to 3,051,000

—making

the

area

the

second best customer, after Japan, for U.S. hides. U.S. tanners report orders of over 1 million feet of leather

from the Soviet Union so far in 1971, a significant rise from the 98,000 feet exported in 1970. If the emphasis on consumer goods continues, there will be a demand for more rough hides and finished leather products. The form of future hide shipments may be changed due

in

lb.

Hides being discouraged by several countries,

also

including Japan, because of the pollution which sometimes results

when they

are stripped of their hair,

salt,

and moisture

prior to tanning.

HIDES

AND

Country of

Average

destination

1961-65 1966

USSR Canada Germany, West

Romania United Kingdom

SKINS

1967

1968

1969

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 pieces pieces pieces pieces pieces 3,435 3,994 4,197 5,258 6,006 745 803 1,551 1,844 1,721 379 383 1,230 1,836 1,223 669 849 1,720 1,051 1,013

Mexico

Italy

exports

U.S.

Japan

averaged

lb.

1

Netherlands

U.S.

...

difficulties

USSR.

Union importing 1,492,000 Purchases by other Eastern European countries in percent of

...

Total

hides.

—20

1,170.4

..

...

November December

to 15,225,000 hides with the Soviet

1970 brought the

1,084.1

..

August September October

cattle

9,509,000 hides yearly of which the Soviet Union took an average of 745,000 hides. By 1970 U.S. exports had grown

hides

1,001.0

..

..

U.S.

economic

that plagued the total

849.9

-

1968.

dominance of world

increase in U.S. beef production and the

1961

...

..

..

production in 1970, while the share of the USSR, second largest producer, declined. This reflects the steady

From

Mil. lb. 124.5 100.7 112.0 88.7 62.1 93.4 110.1 112.8 107.6 89.3 79.4 89.8

July

hide

and unfavorable weather

Mil. lb. 41.9 50.4 136.1 90.0 80.5 85.7 107.1 141.8 121.4 108.3 51.4 69.4

June

?

Union were over

Mil. lb. 80.7 72.6 64.1 78.3 56.1 105.1 86.4 108.6 115.5 102.1 95.8 35.6

April

30, 1970.

Soviet

...

77.4 58.5 61.9 58.8 51.5 69.6 88.7 92.2 89.7 91.8 82.3 72.4

..

March

1

1970

1969

Mil.

January February

1

1968

1967

May

the adjusted base quota or 1,127.5 million pounds.

Soviet Union.

basis): Australia (555.4),

required to invoke a

imposition

its

lb.

beef and mut110 percent of an

The adjusted base quota The amount of estimated

quota on imports of these meats.

to

,

—primarily

are estimated to equal or exceed

Meat Import Law amounted

,

88-482, enacted in August 1964, provides that

yearly imports of certain meats

ton

to the

Principal suppliers of

(on mil. (41.8)

be continued. Public

meat subject

1,153 million pounds during calendar 1970.

879

775

1,187

1,150

279 48

710 474 504 257 349 269 234 369

211 71 78 107 84 173 71

..

Czechoslovakia Poland Yugoslavia France Spain Korea, Republic of China, Taiwan

41

94 298

Israel

Turkey

142 28 86 441

575 323 56 145 99 191

218 312 207 271 170 72 98 375

1970

1

1,000 pieces

6,206 2,045 1,492

762 714 332 336 449

332

760 538 432 379 329 312 274 272 263 262 257

459 287 260 272

105 115 110

125 127 124

188 109 113

88

64 300

321

792 598 199 77

285 297 238 147 303 323

166

499 152

Philippines,

developments.

to recent

It

is

difficult

to

secure shipping

space for green salted hides because of the nature of the cargo.

As

crusted

form

April 5,

a result



1971

as

more hides will have to be shipped in the rough leather ready for finished tanning.

29

Republic of Others Total

63 ...

9,509

57

597

84 223

334

14,189 11,852 12,879 14,781

63

15,225

Page

11

,

Canada Encourages Barley

total of 3.8 million tons in the current

Deliveries

To Seize Export Sales Opportunities The Canadian Wheat Board has

re-

cently taken several steps to encourage

ceed the previous 2.7-million-ton barley export record.

Then,

farmers to increase barley deliveries to

February 22, the delivery

Effective

quota for barley was extended to an additional

17

a matter of days, reports

in

of smaller feedgrain crops in the United

Prairie grain elevators.

shipping blocks and in-

and other With big sales

States sent prices of barley

feedgrains up sharply.

already

and a subsequent

completed,

demand,

now appears

creased from 20 to 30 bushels per acre.

increase in

The Canadian Wheat Board

Canada’s barley exports

an immediate increase

that

by

deliveries

believes

additional export sales opportunities for

May, June, and July for

Canadian

the

Wheat Board, announced per-bushel increase in the

10-cent-

a

price

initial

for barley delivered during the current

crop year (Aug. 1-July 31). The new

which went into effect March 1 is Can$101 (Can$l =US$0.993) per bushel, basis No. 3, Canada Western 6 Row barley in store at Thunder Bay, Ontario. An adjustment payment of 10 cents per bushel will be made on barley delivered during the period August 1, 1970 to February 28, 1971. A recent survey conducted by the Wheat Board indicates that Prairie

price,

farmers are currently holding as

New

new crop

record the

levels

in

6-month

recent

months.

period,

not lose their quota base

unable to take advantage of the

policies currently in effect.

oats,

In making Wheat Board

its

said

announcement, it

the

“will continue to

authorize quotas for specific grains and,

A

The

large shipments resulted mainly sales

made

last

June when the international market for feed barley was in the doldrums. Canada was then burdened with a heavy carryover from big crops in the 2 previous years and was facing a record

1970 harvest. In late July the Canadians announced that, on the basis of advance sales during the August 1970-July 1971 marketing year, they expected to ex-

Page 12

rye

for

distilleries,

and

or rapeseed

and flaxseed for crushing, can be used for the delivery of these grains to

a

country elevator under regular quotas.

But any assigned acreage that has been

and quotas

alternate delivery point

will

again be based on the acreage assigned

by producers

The Wheat Board

also

intends

to

1971-72 a system of “non-

in

cumulative” quotas for wheat, barley,

and

Noncumulative

oats.

designed

make

quotas,

a

to

encourage

producers

to

on a regular basis and to provide quantities needed to meet sales commitments at specific deliveries of grain

times throughout the crop year.

The Wheat Board’s quota

policies

provisions for the delivery of grains

specialty

to

ley

and

markets— of

selected

bar-

oats, of rye to local distilleries,

and of flaxseed and rapeseed to crushing plants.

The new provisions are designed some of the inequities that

to eleminate exist will

under current policies. No longer producers for specialty markets re-

ceive special privileges.

Under

to a specialty market.

In

a

separate

on March

action

1,

the Honorable Otto E. Lang, the min-

ular grains.”

implement

used as a basis for the delivery of grain

to the delivery of partic-

new

from heavy forward

land assigned

to the delivery of selected barley

used for this purpose can no longer be

million metric tons of barley

a sub-

Any

they

pro-

necessary, grades of grains.

during the 1971-72 crop year contain



delivery opportunity.

if

ducer will again be able to select one

if

December 1970, Canada exported 2.24 from the 774,000 tons shipped during January-June 1970 and tons in July-December 1969.

assigned acreage

a specialty market

for

are

July-

stantial increase

who have

grow grain

will

Board's Special Quota Committee, are

up barley deliveries. Canadian barley exports have been 431,000

Producers to

quota policies for the 1971-72 crop year. The modifications anounced are not expected to greatly change the general framework of quota grain-delivery

points out that counmost Prairie areas now

to step

During

Canadian Wheat Board anon February 25, 1971, its

technique recommended by the Wheat

have ample space to enable producers

at

the earlier period.

Grain Policies Set for Canada

har-

is

The Board

try elevators in

The nounced

much

50 million bushels of barley over and above the quantities needed to meet all of Canada’s domestic and ex-

as

port needs until the

130.000 tons, compared with 104,000 in

delivery.

In a second move, Otto Lang, Min-

vested.

that

reach a

producers would

Prairie

responsible

may

barley

in

enable the Board to take advantage of

ister

it

August 1970-July 1971 year. Principal buyers of Canadian barley in the latter half of 1970 were West Germany and Italy, which took 485,000 and 432,000 tons, respectively. Neither country purchased barley from Canada in the same period a year earlier. The United Kingdom took 432,000 tons, up from 180,000 in July-December 1969, and Japan 384,000 tons, up from 93.000 tons. The United States took

ister

responsible

for

the

Wheat Board, announced

Commons

Canadian

in the

House

payments to be made by the Wheat Board for purchases of wheat, barley, and oats in the crop year beginning August 1, 1971. This is the first time the Canadian Government has announced initial payments in advance of spring seeding and implements one of the proposals made by Mr. Lang last fall. (See Foreign of

the

initial

December 14, 1970.) payment for No. 1 Canada Western Red Spring wheat will be Can$1.46 per bushel, for No. 3 Canada Agriculture,

The

initial

Western 6 Row barley, Can. $.91 per bushel, and for No. 2 Canada Western oats, Can$.60 per bushel.

The minimum quantities Wheat Board will accept in

that

the

the crop

388 million bushels of wheat, 230 million bushels of barley, and 45

year:

the provisions that will be in

million bushels of oats. Producers are

1971-72 crop year, producers wishing to take advantage of the speciality markets will be required to make separate acreage assignments

assured that “should sales be such that

effect

in

the

to the delivery of these grains.

increased deliveries would not increase

yearend commercial stocks beyond desirable levels, quotas

would be increased

to permit additional deliveries.”

Foreign Agriculture

Total cake and meal exports, at 1.58 million tons, increased

75,200 tons from exports from October through January 1970. The total reflected mainly the increased exports of soybean meal and larger exports of other cakes and meals.

Grains, Feeds, Pulses, and Seeds

Weekly Rotterdam Grain

and Levies

Prices

Current offer prices for imported grain

at

Rotterdam, the

Oct. -Jan.

Netherlands, compared with a week earlier and a year ago:

Change from Mar. 31 previous week

Item

Wheat: Canadian No. 2 Manitoba USSR SKS-14

Dol. per bu. .

1.98

Australian FAQ U.S. No. 2 Dark Northern Spring: 14 percent 1 5 percent U.S. No. 2 Hard Winter: 13.5 percent

USSR-441 Yellow Winter

1.99

1.86

.

U.S. No. 2 sorghum Argentine-Granifero sorghum U.S. No. 3 Feed barley U.S. No. 2 Yellow

ago

Cents per bu.

Dol. per bu.

-1 -1 -3

1.99 (')

1.70

Soybean Belgium-Luxembourg France Germany, West Italy

1.99

0

1.84

2.02

-2

1.95

2.00

+2

1.77

1.93

0

C) C)

C) 1.84 1.71

1.73

0)

-2

-4 -3

1.67

1.54 1.52

1.50

0

1.49

-1

1.32

1.43

+

1.11

3.36

EC import levies:

1

C)

+2

3.04

0

1.67

1.47 2

Not quoted.

83

+

1

1.03

96

+4

1.09

2

Until Aug. 1, 1972, Italian levies are 19 cents a bu. under those of other EC countries. 30- to 60-day delivery. Note: Basis



Fats, Oils,

and Oilseeds

U.S. soybean meal exports totaled 438,700 tons in January

—up

17 percent, or 64,000 tons, from the 374,700 tons exported in January 1970. October-January exports reached

4 percent from the 1.44 million tons exported in October-January last year. The 1.05 million tons exported to the European Community represented 70 percent of the total and an increase of 12,100 tons from last year’s 4-month total. Larger quantities were also taken by Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, the Philippines, and South Korea. 1.51 million tons, a gain of

April 5,

1971

1

1971

70

1

197071 1

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

short tons

short

short

short tons 122.4

9.5

tons 51.5

58.1

69.3

91.6

81.4

36.1

33.2

tons 79.4 233.5 391.7 119.5

39.7

66.6

218.2

373.1 126.9 185.1

247.0

235.1

302.0

1,042.4

1,054.5

24.0

18.5

Yugoslavia Czechoslovakia Poland

11.0

0

90.7 45.0

0 0

16.0

0

0

Hungary

28.4

(

27.8 43.3

United Kingdom

11.8

18.4

15.8

0

0

0

11.1

3.2

Denmark

7.4

13.9

24.6 20.6

Philippines Ireland Australia

1.1

9.8

15.6

84.1 63.9 28.7 26.0 25.2 23.5 22.0 21.4 21.1 20.0

10.9

1.2

17.6

14.2

3.5

1.3

12.7

10.3

Korea, Republic of

1

4.4

1.8

10.3

Portugal

0

0

2.7

Trinidad-Tobago Others

5

1.3

2.4

7.0 6.4

Total

Bulgaria Switzerland

3

)

29.8

48.7

80.7

68.4

2

374.7

438.7

1,443.7

1,507.0

Cottonseed Linseed

9

2.2

2.5

3.1

1.2

0

46.0

36.1

379.0

453.4

1,504.5

1,579.7

Total

Total cakes and meals

4 ...

3 Less Preliminary. Totals computed from unrounded data. than 50 short tons. 4 Includes peanut and small quantities of other cake and meal. Bureau of the Census.

U.S.

and Meals, January Exports

EC

2

1

1969-

Canada

1

U.S. Oilcakes

1970

of destination

A year

Soybeans:

1

January

Item and country

Netherlands

Argentine U.S. No. 2 Soft Red Winter Feedgrains: U.S. No. 3 Yellow corn Argentine Plate corn

Wheat Corn 2 Sorghum

EXPORTS OF CAKES AND MEALS

U.S.

1

2

Edible Oils, January Exports

Exports of soybean

oil

in

January totaled 134.3 million

pounds, 82 percent more than the 73.8 million exported in January 1970. October-January exports reached 495.8 million last year’s total for the comparable period by 143.7 million pounds. An estimated 214 million pounds were shipped under Public Law 480 programs, including oil for donations and emergency relief, during the 4 months compared with 253 million pounds exported through January 1970. Commercial sales for the same period increased from 99 million pounds last year to 282 million this year. Cottonseed oil exports, in January, at 43.5 million pounds,

pounds, exceeding

Page 13

declined 9.7 million from the 53.2 million pounds exported in January 1970. October- January exports totaled only 111.9 million pounds compared with 200.4 million in the same months a year earlier. All but an estimated 10 million pounds exported during the 4 months were commercial sales. The 8.8 million pounds exported to Morocco in October- January represent the first shipment of cottonseed oil under Title I of Public Law 480 since June 1966. Over a million pounds of cottonseed oil have been shipped as donations so far this marketing year.

U.S.

EXPORTS OF EDIBLE OILS Oct.-Jan.

January

Item and country of destination

1

1970 Mil.

Soybean: 2 Yugoslavia

19691

1971 Mil.

70

Mil.

lb.

lb.

0

18.3

n

lb.

1

19701 71 Mil. lb.

119.8 87.8 34.5 31.6

Pakistan

23.1

22.6

129.7

Morocco

9

15.2

3.1

Chile India

6

12.2

14.0

4.5

10.3

19.9

30.1

Peru

1.6

.3

13.7

25.3

Tunisia

3.0

13.2

46.8

19.3

0

.2

16.4

18.1

Israel

Iran

17.2

4.9

19.1

17.9

3.0

3.7

10.1

14.5

3

5.4

1.4

9.3

Canada

Panama

(

)

Colombia

1.9

3.6

7.6

8.5

Haiti

1.7

1.6

5.9

8.2

Vietnam, South

2

.1

4.5

7.2

Australia

3

1.8

6.0

United Kingdom China, Taiwan

1.2

0 0

5.3

4.7

0

0

0

4.4

Ecuador Guinea

1.6

.9

4.9

3.9

Others Total

4

Cottonseed:

0

0

0

3.2

13.0

21.8

47.9

41.5

73.8

134.3

352.1

495.8

0 0 0 0

0 0

France

Germany, West Italy

0

Sept.-Jan.

1970

destination

1

Mil. bu.

1969-

1971

1

70

1

Mil.

Mil.

bu.

bu.

197071 1 Mil. bu.

Belgium-Luxembourg

1.8

2.0

10.5

France

1.1

.8

1.2

Germany West

3.6

4.1

Italy

2.3

3.3

14.4

12.2

Netherlands

4.2

4.5

27.0

26.4

13.0

14.7

70.2

74.3

5.6

8.4

1

.1

39.9 27.2

50.0 23.2

EC

Total

2

J apan

Canada

17.1.

7.6 5.0

23.0

Spain

3.6

3.4

13.7

15.6

Denmark

1.5

2.1

8.8

9.9

China, Taiwan United Kingdom

1.1

1.3

8.6

9.2

.7

4.8

3.3

Israel

4 4

0

5.4

3.0

Norway

5

.5

2.5

3.1

Poland Others Total

2

Oil equivalent

1

Preliminary. of the Census.

2

6

.6

3.1

1.7

1.9

3.3

4.0

7.6

28.7

35.1

188.2

200.9

Mil.

Mil.

Mil.

Mil.

lb.

lb.

lb.

314.8 1,000 short tons 675.8

385.3 1,000 short tons 827.0

lb.

tons 4.434.1

2,205.4 1,000 short tons 4,734.1

Totals computed from unrounded data,

Bureau

Meal equivalent

2.7

5.7

2,065.9

1,000 short

3 (

(

)

15.1

3

)

3

)

(

)

1.1

2.3

5.7

15.8

16.2

Venezuela Poland

6.6

8.9

31.3

17.4

0

7.9

0

17.3

U.A.R Canada

5.2

5.7

27.2

14.8

10.0

EC

4

2.5

2.0

17.7

1.2

9.4 31.4

Morocco Mexico Sweden

5.5

8.8

5.5

8.8

5.5

0

8.3

6.9

0

2.6

5.5

4.7

Iran

2.7

37.7

1.7

0

0 0

1.9

1.1

5.2

.7

26.4

1.5

53.2

43.5

200.4

111.9

127.0

177.8

552.5

607.7

Untied Kingdom

Japan Others 4

oils

Dairy and Poultry

)

(

13.1

11.5

1

Preliminary. 2 Includes shipments under P.L. 480 as reported by Census. 3 Less than 50,000 lb. 4 Totals computed from unrounded data. Bureau of the Census.

Denmark's 1971 Poultry Outlook Not Good Although the outlook for Danish poultry has improved owing to large sales to the USSR and Egypt during the first quarter, exports for the year as a whole could be less favorable. Total poultry meat production in 1971 is forecast at 71,000 metric tons (ready-to-cook weight), down slightly from the 1970 level. Turkey producers have been warned to cut production in 1971, as market prospects are not encouraging. Total production of poultry meat in 1970 is estimated at 73,000 tons, an increase of about 14 percent over the 1969 level. Consumption of poultry meat on the home market reportedly increased by a substantial 40 percent (or about since the beginning of 1971

3.5

lb.

per capita) over the previous year’s level as a result

of the reduced

home market

creased sales promotion. poultry meat

is

U.S. Soybeans,

January Exports

U.S. exports of soybeans in January totaled 35.1



or consumer tax, and in-

in

1970 increased by an estimated

5 percent to 50,000 tons, with a considerable share going to million

an increase of 22 percent from the 28.7 million bushels exported in January 1970. September- January exports reached 200.9 million bushels up 7 percent, or 12.7 million

bushels,

fee,

Total per capita consumption of

estimated at 12.2 pounds.

Exports of poultry meat

Page 14

January

Country of

3

)

0

Total

EXPORTS OF SOYBEANS

3 (

3 (

2.3

Netherlands

Total

U.S.

2

Belgium-Luxembourg

Total

from exports in the same months a year ago. The major portion of the increase was taken by the European Community, Japan, Spain, Denmark, and the Republic of China. bushels,

markets such as the USSR, Czechoslovakia, Exports to the Middle East showed a small increase, whereas exports to Japan dropped to about a fifth of the 1969 level, due mainly to increasing domestic

untraditional

Poland, and Egypt.

Foreign Agriculture

poultry meat production in that country.

tion totaled 1,312,000 cases, 16 percent

Danish egg production is expected to be 80,000 tons in Because of a 1971, about 5,000 tons less than last year’s. fall-off in production in the EC, due partly to Newcastle

Production of

disease in the Netherlands,

somewhat

better export conditions

fruit salad

and cocktail

is

above the 1969 level. estimated at 142,000

cases.

Exports of canned peaches are expected to be higher during

Peach exports are forecast

the 1971 season.

338,000 cases,

at

However, the long-

17 percent above the 1970 level. Venezuela, Peru, Brazil, and

run outlook for Danish poultry is reported to be rather bleak. The export market for eggs in 1970 was not favorable, and producer prices were often well below production costs. Danish egg exports declined by 20 percent to 19,200 tons from the 1969 level. Denmark saw its traditional markets in

West Germany were the major export markets during the 1970 season.

for Danish eggs are expected this spring.

Switzerland and sales to foreign troops in West Germany partly taken over by West Germany. Some breaking-quality eggs were shipped to the United States for the

first

time in

However, because of egg import restrictions by the United Kingdom, large quantities went to domestic egg processors and sizable stocks of egg products were built up. Slaughtering of hens was promoted as a partial solution several years.

ARGENTINE CANNED DECIDUOUS FRUIT PRODUCTION Item

cases

Peaches

Government

Mechanization of

of the sugar industry. especially harvesting,

modernization operations,

field

being given high priority.

is

In 1970

only 8 percent of the sugarcane crop was harvested by five mechanical harvesters. Under the Plan, new cane varieties are to be introduced, and the cane transport system and sugar factories are to be improved.

amount

weather.

Production

to 170,000 tons.

dry weather during the

It

for

would be

latter part of

1971 larger

is

expected

if it

2

cases

cases

to

weren’t for

1970 and unseasonable

rains early in the harvest season.

The market for Guadeloupe’s sugar is governed by the European Economic Community, which grants Guadeloupe Guadeloupe also has a a quota of 177,000 tons a year.

1,312

245 98 24

98 49 24

127

142

44 27

49 29

17

15

17

20

2

2,589

1,411

1,342

1,552

Case holds 24 cans,

in

size 21/2.

Mexican Strawberry Output

Planted area for 1970-71 was increased from 6,500 hectares (about 16,000 acres) to 7,100 hectares (about 17,500 acres).

However, yields have been reduced by severe freezes in Guanajuato and by diseases and insects in Michoacan. The Guanajuato freezes in November and February have cut by 37 percent from last year. Michoacan’s yields are yields 13 15 percent.

No

significant

although 15

there

changes

shipped exports to

crop

is

in

marketing patterns are expected,

some experimentation with airEurope. About 60 percent of the Mexican

has

been

processed, 30 percent

is

exported fresh, and 10 percent

goes into domestic consumption.

According

on January There are 25 million in the United States and about 10 million Mexico. to industry estimates, carryover

was about 35 bonded storage freezers in

million

pounds.

1

in

in

U.S. quota.

Crops and Markets Index Fruits, Nuts,

Dairy and Poultry 14 Denmark’s 1971 Poultry Outlook Not Good

and Vegetables

Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds 13 14

Argentina Increases Canned Fruit Pack Larger 1971 crops of peaches, apricots, and cherries

lifted

the Argentine canned deciduous fruit pack to 1,552,000 cases

(each holding 24 cans, size 2%), 16 percent above the 1970 but below the 1965-69 annual average.

level,

Favorable weather was prevalent in most producing areas during both blossoming and harvesting periods. A January

windstorm caused some pear droppage, which was salvaged for cannery use. All canned fruit packs were higher. Canned peach producApril

5,

1971

2

1,127

season’s 137 million pounds.

down

1970 totaled 159,825 metric tons, a 7.4-percent increase over the 1969 level. The increase was due to a rise in acreage harvested and Sugar production during calendar

favorable

2

1

Mexican strawberry production in the States of Guanajuato and Michoacan is expected to be reduced sharply from last season and from earlier forecasts. The expected frozen pack will be an estimated 80 million pounds, compared with last

of Guadeloupe’s 5-year is

Preliminary.

Drop Likely

Guadeloupe Plans Sugar Development objective of the

cases

1971

1,225

tail

Total

Agricultural Development Plan (1970-1975)

2

1970

2,205

Pears Apricots Cherries

1

Sugar and Tropical Products

1969

Fruit salad and cock-

to excess supplies.

One

1968

U.S. Oilcakes and Meals, January Exports U.S. Edible Oils, January Exports U.S. Soybeans, January Exports

and Vegetables Argentina Increases Canned Fruit Pack Drop Likely in Mexican Strawberry Output

Fruits, Nuts,

15

Grains, Feeds, Pulses, and Seeds 13 Weekly Rotterdam Grain Prices and Levies

Sugar and Tropical Products Guadeloupe Plans Sugar Development

15

Page 15

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U.S.

WASHINGTON,

D.

C.

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Foreign Agricultural Service, Rm. 5918 U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250

Foreign Agriculture

World Market Some

Europe.

in

Farm Products

of those countries have a natural advantage

in livestock production,

and they are looking for reasonably

priced inputs from outside Eastern Europe. Increasingly, they

have looked to the United States. Eastern Europe seems to be a growing market for U.S. feed ingredients as well as grains and other feedstuffs. The outstanding example is soybean meal. Exports of U.S. soymean meal to Eastern Europe have climbed from less than $1 million in 1960 to more than $50 million in 1970. The total value of our soybean and soybean product exports to that area exceeded $80 million. Grain exports to Eastern Europe have been held down by the

we

1969,

and

this

crop

in

production

in

rise

there

during

the

late

1960’s.

was

virtually all feedgrains.

Eastern Europe in 1970

is

poultry imports based on lower cost production just outside the

However, a poor grain resulting in a sharp in-

EC

borders?

Within Eastern Europe too, higher incomes have led to pressure for increased consumption of meat. Recent events in Poland have demonstrated the importance of these con-

sumer pressures. American producers of grains and other

work.

to help the system

For one ture’s

trading

growth of years.

thing,

we must be

alert in defense of our agriculhave been concerned about the

We

rights.

restrictionist thinking in

We

trade-restrictive policies within the

and concerned

Europe has as a liveconsumption of livestock

natural advantages that Eastern

stock producer, coupled with a rising

and poultry products in Western Europe, lead to an increasing trade in these commodities between East and West Europe. Yugoslavia, for example, last year negotiated a preferential

time as the

that these policies

Community may be

million a year and

West trade

mind,

Europe continues

to increase, there is reason

to believe that the countries of Eastern

ing hard to supply

more

Europe

will

be

striv-

high-quality beef and perhaps other

meats to Western Europe. Those countries need to earn foreign exchange, and one way to do this is to export livestock products into Western Europe. If this trade expands as now appears likely, it will be interesting to see what impact this will have on Eastern Europe as a market for feedstuffs. It will be interesting to observe what pressures are exerted on the EC’s Common Agricultural Policy. What will be the impact of livestock and

Page 16

countries in recent

European Community

might be extended

at

such

enlarged.

This concern was behind the negotiation we completed with the British several weeks ago, with respect to our grain trade with that country. Our exports of grain to the United Kingdom have generally amounted to $150 million to $200

arrangement for marketing its baby beef in the EC. We disapprove of this arrangement, as we object to other preferential arrangements. The Yugoslavs assure us that they see the baby beef preference as a special situation, one that does not imply anything broader. Nevertheless, if Eastin

many

have been particularly uneasy about the growth of

And

The

economy

where the market works to favor -the efficient producer and reward the holder of comparative economic advantage. There are things that both industry and the Government can do

crease in our grain sales during the current marketing year. these sales have included wheat as well as feedgrains.

feedstuffs should

increasingly think of themselves as part of a world

In

exported $30 million worth of grains to that area,

(Continued from page 3)

We the

have made

Community

means

we want it

that

to preserve this trade.

Kingdom and

plain both to the United

we

are determined to use

to safeguard our trade rights

and

all

soybeans, and other agricultural commodities.

we

appropriate

interests in grains,

With

this in

intend to exercise fully our rights under the General

and Trade (GATT), including retaliThis applies both during and after the period of U.K. negotiation with the Community, whether or not the United Kingdom becomes

Agreement on

Tariffs

atory trade measures should that be necessary.

member of the Community. Our agreement with the British preserves our GATT rights for full use later. By maintaining these rights, and avoiding their dissipation in a general negotiation, we keep ourselves a

in a position to use

farm products

at a

them

to their utmost

on behalf of our

time and place of our choosing.

Foreign Agriculture