policies, or practices.
Service U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
2 Trade Outlook:
Another Banner Year For U.S. Farm Exports 4.
Sales to Swiss Hit 20-Year High 6 Future Of Turkey
Probes Allegation Of Vegetable 8 U.S.
Dumping 10 Japanese
Team Completes U.S. Buying Trip
Unloading rice-laden boat in Thailand
Another Banner Year
US. Farm Exports
Abundant domestic supplies and continued strong world demand could lift U.S. farm exports to another record tentatively projected at $29 billion in fiscal 1979. If achieved, this would be the 10th straight record for U.S. farm exports, heightening agriculture’s already strong contribution to the U.S. economy.
continue strong during 1978/79.
the record grain crop
in the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. farm exports are projected to exceed those of last year. Export tonnage may change little, but it looks like improved prices for the major commodities will push the United States to another record export value of about $29 billion. That would be 6 percent greater than in fiscal
time, U.S. agricultural imports are forecast
which would leave a record surplus
which could range from $26 billion to $32 billion, will depend to a large extent on what happens to the Southern Hemisphere crops between now and next spring. But other factors beside weather bear on the total,
level of agricultural exports.
Economic expansion can tell us a great deal about the strength of foreign demand. Growth in the world economy is
at least the first half
are projected to rise slightly
Growth rates Japan, most of Europe
is Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service. This article is taken from his November 14 speech at the National Food and Agricultural Outlook Conference, Washington, D.C.
They have stayed with than cut back on use
to import rather
the years since, and this has
produced a substantial market for U.S. corn and wheat. Even with a record 1978 crop now expected to be about 230 million tons, expanded meat output, along with stocks that have been depleted by previous crop shortfalls, could lead the Soviets to take sizable imports from the inter-
agricultural trade of almost $15 billion.
except the United Kingdom, and in Canada, which means improved demand in these traditional markets. Little change is seen among the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations, but expansion will continue in most of the non-OPEC developing countries, which are taking increasing amounts of U.S. products. Growth rates are expected to be highest in the developing countries of East Asia, notably South Korea and Taiwan, which have substantial capacity for continued growth as markets for U.S. agricultural commodities. The world monetary situation also impacts on U.S. agricultural exports, although the actual effect is difficult to measure. Obviously, monetary exchange rates have little or no effect on exports of products in which trade is impeded by institutional barriers, such as variable levies, or for which demand is inelastic. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that overall U.S. competitive potential was improved by floating the dollar in the early part of this decade, and that exports of feedstuffs and other products not subject to these barriers benefited from its downward slide in recent months. Two weeks ago, for example, when the dollar was at its low against the Deutsche mark, the price of soybean meal in West Germany was the same in marks as it had been 10 years earlier. That cannot help but stimulate export sales. The point is that the impact of the dollar’s exchange rate is commodity and market specific. In the bulk commodities, its effects are most likely to be felt on soybeans, which are bound duty-free in the European Community, and to some extent on cotton. Little effect is likely on wheat, and the effect on corn might be termed mixed. Also important to trade are political factors. These are the domestic and trade policy decisions made in agriculture by the U.S. and foreign governments. For example, while bad weather sharply cut back the Soviet grain crop in 1972, it was a political decision made earlier to improve consumer diets that sent the Soviet Union into the world market for 21 million metric tons of
appears that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a political decision to open its doors to U.S. farm products, resulting in substantial sales of grains and cotton last year and into this year. How wide and for how long the doors will be open will depend on decisions by It
Government of the PRC. These decisions work the other way, of course. The inauguration by the European Community in 1962 of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) had a profound and generally negative effect on U.S. agricultural exports. The introduction of EC variable levies in 1962 destroyed a U.S. broiler market in the Community that had reached over 66,000 tons before the levies were imposed. Less apparent because it is masked by increases in U.S. grain shipments to the EC is the restraint on this the
growth applied by the variable levies of the CAP. The loss cannot be quantified, but it is evident from the fact that while annual domestic consumption of grain in the EC has risen by 26 million tons since 1960/61, net imports have declined by about 6 million tons, even though it would have been cheaper for the EC to buy grain from the import market.
This and other EC decisions, such as trade preferences, have been long-term factors in U.S. export trade. There also has been a return to more aggressive marketing of grains as the EC confronts the problem of surplus wheat and barley from a record 1978 grain crop and the increased use of feedgrain substitutes. The decision seems to have been made for wheat and
move this surplus regardless of the cost or impact on other countries’ trade. Exports are being subsidized to dispose of the surplus in third-country maran exportable supply of about 5 million tons of kets wheat and 3 million of barley. The subsidy of $100 or more a ton on wheat is likely to encourage export sales to nontraditional EC markets, such as Eastern Europe and even the PRC, to the detriment of U.S. wheat sales to barley to
On feedstuffs, high grain prices have stimulated increased imports of nongrain feed ingredients, such as manioc, bran, fruit pulp, and others. Vigorous French protests of this trend have put pressure on the EC Commission to find solutions to the feedgrain substitutes issue. Several actions are being considered that would affect EC during 1979 and the years ahead.
U.S. exports to the
One, for example, involves limitations on imports of manioc, which has become a major element in EC compound feeds in recent years. EC manioc imports last year totaled about 4 million tons. In contrast to grains, manioc is imported at a very low duty. Combined with duty-free soybean meal, it becomes a cheaper feed base than the traditional feedgrain/soybean meal mix.
now appears that the EC will try to enter into an It agreement with Thailand, its major supplier, guaranteeing market access but limiting imports of manioc from Thailand probably to around the present level. The manioc issue affects U.S. exports of both soybeans and corn and in opposite ways. Growth in the use of manioc has generated more use of soybean meal to the benefit of U.S. exports of soybeans and meal. At the same time, manioc as a substitute for
grain has cost the United States corn exports to the that
outweigh the gains
soybeans and meal.
The European Community is the largest U.S. market, worth $6.6 billion last fiscal year. On the other side of the world, Japan, a $4-bil ion-pl us market, has a rice crop that will boost its stocks of rice to about 6 million tons. Stocks of this size hanging over its domestic agriculture I
are a problem for the Japanese Government.
Should Japan decide to try to solve it by subsidizing use or into export, trading patterns for the United States and other countries would be affected not rice for feed
only for rice, but for other grains as well.
those are being made continuously by in the trading community, af-
one degree or another. They unpredictable, like the weather. But, unlike the
fecting agricultural trade to
weather, they can be controlled, and there is an effort underway in Geneva by about 100 countries to reach collective decisions that will influence trade for years to
come. The outcome of these multilateral trade negotiations is uncertain. The United States is working to break the impasse created by the EC reaction to the pending expiration of the U.S. -countervailing duty waiver. Meanwhile, much has been accomplished in work with other trading partners, and the U.S. target still is December 15 for completion of the negotiations; it can be done and done
with meaningful gains for U.S. agriculture.
to work out Wheat Agree-
a set of rules to replace the International
ment. At this point, the prospects are uncertain.
new And they probably can complete an agree-
ment that will be in the interest of U.S. producers before the end of the year. But some very hard issues lie ahead. What is certain in both of these negotiations is that unless the participating nations demonstrate a confidence in their ability to make and abide by decisions to foster freer, more orderly trade, the pressures to turn inward to
Grain and feed. The record world grain crop may bring a slight reduction in volume of U.S. grain and feed exports. However, improved prices over those of a year
wheat and sorghum, could push value up by maybe $500 million from last year's total of $11.7
earlier, primarily for
is expected to decline marginally record or near-record crops, with by perhaps 2 million tons from last
wheat, world trade
under the impact U.S. exports
Production inof $32.8 million tons. creases are projected for Canada, Australia, Argentina, Western Europe, the Soviet Union, and India. Strong competition in the world market is likely, particularly from the European Community, with its substantial export subsidies, and also from Canada and from Australia, where the weather has been very favorable for late crop development. The Soviet Union, which has produced a wheat crop estimated at 115 million tons, is likely to import the minimum amount of wheat from the United States required under the Grain Sales Agreement, which is 3 million tons. This compares with 3.4 million tons last fiscal year.
On the other hand, the PRC, where the 1978 harvest apparently was below plan, is importing grain at a record rate. This year, the PRC is expected to import substanmore wheat from the United States than in fiscal 1978. Shipments to Japan are expected to turn upward again after last year’s reduced volume, depending on how Japan addresses its rice surplus. Increases also are seen in Western Europe outside the Community, and in most of Asia and Africa. The EC will continue to import high-quality wheat for blending, but U.S. shipments are likely to be down somewhat from last year’s level of almost 2.5 million tons. World demand for feedgrains continues to increase, but the increase in 1978/79 production to a record of about 732 million tons is likely to exceed gains in consumption. In this situation, the United States will be fortunate to
hold the gain
when feedgrain exports
rose by almost 5 million tons to 55.5 million tons. Of the three largest U.S. feedgrain markets last year Japan, the EC, and the Soviet Union, each of which took slightly over 11
Cotton Sales to Swiss
Again, and as in the case of wheat, the disposition of surplus Japanese rice could affect the increase.
EC are expected to derecord EC coarse grain crop
U.S. feedgrain exports to the cline
under the impact
internal prices that favor feeding of
wheat and barley
over imported corn. In addition, an exportable EC barley surplus of about 3 million tons is likely to adversely affect U.S. corn exports to third-country markets. Even after a very poor corn harvest, the Soviet Union is expected to import less U.S. corn because the total Soviet feedgrain crop was second only to that of 1976. This decline should be just about offset by export gains to Eastern Europe, where late rains have damaged coarse grains, and to the PRC, which last year imported no U.S. feedgrains.
Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, and Iran also should be good markets for U.S. corn in fiscal 1979. Oilseeds and products. The value of U.S. exports of oilseeds and products is projected at $8.1 billion for fiscal 1979, a gain of 9 percent, as world demand for high protein feeds continues to expand. Above-trend gains are seen for production among U.S. competitors, but a large share of that expected increase will not become available until after Southern Hemisphere harvests next March and April. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of soybeans and meal are expected to increase significantly during October-March, reflecting the short soybean harvest in Brazil last spring. What happens in the second half of the current year will depend largely on the Brazilian harvest next spring. Some reduction is expected in U.S. exports of soybean oil because of accelerated competition from Malaysian Brazil,
and demand for meal is expected to exceed which could put downward pressure on oil
forecast to rise
from the record 19.7 million tons of last year. At time, despite record U.S. supplies of 1979-crop soybeans, prices are expected to average somewhat above those of a year ago. This reflects increased domestic and foreign demand, as well as producer decisions to hold beans off the market. Cotton. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 5.8 million bales, down slightly from those of fiscal 1978, but still the slightly
second highest total in the last 10 years. World import demand is expected to continue strong. In Japan, economic growth is stimulating cotton use, and an export gain is likely there. U.S. cotton shipments are expected to be up substantially to South Korea and other countries in Southeast and East Asia, which last year imported almost 3 million bales of U.S. cotton. Their competitive position in the world textile economy remains strong, and their need for imported cotton is rising. Continued drought in the PRC, which became the fourth largest U.S. cotton market last year, held back 1978 cotton production. As a result of weather problems, the
(August-July) as importers
on bargain prices brought on by the U.S. dollar’s depreciation. Prospects for 1978/79, however, look less promising, building
Switzerland has far as it can. Total cotton imports by Switzerland during 1977/78 rose nearly 25 percent from the previous year’s to a in
gone about as
record 53,732 metric tons, with the United States a leading beneficiary. U.S. cotton exports there soared 63 percent over the 1976/77 level to 9,595 tons to recover the No. 1 supplier position held by the United States in 1974/75. The U.S. share of the market rose to 17.8 percent from 13.6 percent in 1976/77. Favorable U.S. prices in Swiss-franc terms for better qualities sought by the
accounted for the gain, which followed a nearly 50 percent advance in 1976/ 77. Most of the U.S. cotton came from California, and
the San Joaquin Valley inch
dominating exports. Turkey was in the No. 2 spot, supplying 8,346 tons, or 132 percent more than
Turkish cotton. Other major last season included Egypt, Peru, Israel,
Colombia in The USSR, usutop source, dropped and
that order. ally a
10th place as imports from that country fell 68 percent from 1976/77’s. to
A notable shift in this was the enlarged demand for longer staple
lengths used of
extra-long staple cotton ac-
for about 30 percent of the imports, against
medium counted In
contrast to the strong
staple lengths ac-
demand, domestic raw cotton declined
slightly to 47,496 tons last
season, reflecting sluggishness in both domestic and
Resumes Livestock Loans
The Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) has resumed lending to finance livestock projects under a second World Bank credit line, according to a dispatch from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Manila. Loan applications eligible under the DBP financing programs include those for: • New projects for which the loan value exceeds 100 000 $ • Additional loans to existing borrowers, the total loan of which exceeds $100,000, including outstanding ,
balances. • Meritorious cases, such as additional loans for rehabilitation, restructuring, and consolidation, and the total loan for which (including outstanding balances) exceeds $ 100 000 ,
Continued on page 16
export finished textiles.
for Swiss and semifinished However, consump-
by members of the Swiss Textile Industry rose 12.5 percent from the 1976/77 level to tion of U.S. cotton
ports in 1978/79. Current estimates indicate a 20 percent decline in the coun-
Indian Oilseed Output
raw cotton imports to about 42,000 tons. The United States is expected to supply about 7,500 tons. One of the key problems has been the instability of
ancy between imports and usage, Swiss stocks of raw cotton by June 30, 1978, had risen 32 percent above those of the previous year
The unprecedented strength
to 25,764 tons.
These large cotton stocks together with the weak
cotton yarn and other textiles
pects for Swiss cotton im-
extremely risky to make forward purchases of cotton.
Swiss franc also has been a major factor behind
the slack tain
on a dispatch from Homer Walters,
The USSR’s 1978/79 cotton crop
with 8 million for the comparable period last
season. Reports continue that bolls in some replanted areas have not opened fully and that the frost and cool weather in early October have slowed the ripening process. Weather, in general, has been more favorable in recent weeks, and the harvesting rate has improved greatly.
However, it seems likely that the crop has been damaged enough to prevent it from equaling the 1977/78 record. Some provinces already have exceeded their Uzbekistan, the largest cotton producer,
reports the most difficulty.
were: 15.2 percent for ses-
seeds; 16 percent for flaxseed; and 23.2 percent for nigerseed.
begin producmotors capable running on 100 percent it
Rapeseed /mustardseed estimated at about in million hectares
1977/78, compared with the previous season’s adjusted estimate of 1.48 million hec-
about a 220,000 hec-
At the present time, gaso-
Sao Paulo, Rio de
20 percent. In 1977, petroleum imports cost the country $3.8 billion, more than a tenfold increase in just
leum imports with alcohol produced from sugarcane, manioc, and other plant
materials, the country’s au-
exceed domestic consumption and export needs.
a large share of
the world’s largest
sugarcane and in
and niger seeds, both of which are final, show 1977/ 78 sesameseed production
was up by 64,200 tons to 486,000 tons, and area was to
seed production was 26,300 tons higher, reaching 139,600 tons. The area was 21,900 hectares greater, totaling 590,000 hectares.
the planted area.
tains an alcohol mixture of
the Office of U.S. Agricul-
Pradesh, Orissa, and Karnataka. Seasonal condi-
planned that 16 percent of the automobiles made in Brazil will be fueled by alcohol by 1983, according to a report from
weather condisowing time.
on the harvested crop from 65-70 percent of
West Bengal, and Gujarat. These increases were largely attributable to Orissa,
Alcohol-Powered Car Motors
production was largely because of favorable growing-
another step towards
cent of the planted area, and flaxseed outturn is
The area increases
rapeseed and mustardseed in 1977/78 (compared with area the previous season) were mainly in Uttar Pra-
up by 26,700 hectares
1.431 million hectares.
2.3 million hectares. Niger-
up by 72,900 hectares
Flaxseed outturn was estimated at 500,000 tons. The rapeseed/mustardseed production estimate is based on harvest results from an estimated 50 per-
tion of car
tare rise. Flaxseed area
the previous season’s 1.562
Government and trade sources show that area and production of rapeseed/mustardseed, flaxseed, sesameseed, and nigerseed were greater in
estimated at 12.5 million bales (480 lb net), down from the record 12.7 million harvested last season. Soviet seed cotton deliveries continue to run somewhat behind last year’s rate. Deliveries through October 25 totaled 7.8 million tons,
Data recently released by
trade, combined rapeseed/ mustardseed production was 1.8 million metric tons in 1977/78, compared with
Soviet Cotton Production From Last Year’s Level
5 years. Brazil has set a 1980 pro-
duction target of 3 billion liters of
alcohol for mixture
raw material could be produced on 1.3 percent of Brazil’s estimated 47 million hectares goal, sufficient
Pradesh, Orissa, and Maharashtra, causing farmers to increase nigerseed planted area. These States ac-
arcane and manioc is 1.8 million and 2.1 million hectares,
550,000 hectares of sugar-
cane and 85,000 hectares of manioc would be required to produce the plant material needed to achieve the 1980 alcohol-production goal.
Today, only about 5 percent of Brazil’s land area
under cultivation, but sharp increase is seen the next decade.
taking approximately 85-90
from the Izmir region.
Lack of Suitable Land Turkey’s Citrus Output
regions where the weather is
key’s citrus industry ing
an uncertain future as
citrus export item.
major As a re-
Turkey is not expected to present any major threat to lemon sales to U.S. Western Europe, at least not in the near future. Although there are some citrus-growing areas availsult,
which totaled 1.05
centered in five major regions Adana, Igel, AnIzmir, talya, and Hatay Provinces. Some tangerine production is also located in the eastern Black Sea
lemons. Unfortunately, land area there is restricted by mountain ranges. Consequently, any expansion would have to take place in the Adana and Antalya areas where there is the risk of occasional frost. Amounting to only about 3.5 percent of total agricultural exports during the past few years, citrus exports, totaling 143,000 tons in 1976/77, have not been an important foreign exchange earner for Turkey. However, citrus exports do amount to about 85 percent of
ments. Turkey’s citrus exports grew during 1960-76, with
is located 1977/78, mostly in the Provinces of Antalya, Igel, and Hatay,
shipments going to Middle East or East European countries. But these markets have not proven to be a steady outlet for Turkey’s surplus
while lemon output (280,000
1977/78) is centered Tangerines are produced and mainly exported
Orange production, which totaled 600,000 tons in
current citrus groves.
the 1950’s and 1960’s, Tur-
Clouds Future of
climatic conditions, Igel ideally
During the past few years, has been the major market for Turkish oranges,
percent of total orange shipments. However, during 1978, exports to this off country have fallen sharply because oranges were found to be too expensive for the average
consumer. Major outlets for Turkey’s tangerines have been Austria and West Germany, accounting for 64 percent of the market share during the
1976/77 season. Most of Turkey’s lemon exports are to Eastern Eu-
and West Germany; USSR, Romania, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria take rope
the major portion of ship-
Most of the bilateral trade agreements that have been signed between Turkey and East European countries have included exports of citrus as one of the products to be traded against industrial imports.
has also restricted
entry of Turkish citrus.
EC granted Turkey a tariff preference concession amounting imports
60 percent on
Government has requested Turkey: Citrus Production and Trees, Selected Regions, 1975 Region and commodity
T rees Nonbearing
1,214 8,470 7,577 79,836 5,297
91,864 131,295 1,019,169 176,678
Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges Antalya: Grapefruit
Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges
10,318 38,060 33,495
29,239 107,645 141,613 1,057,229 210,173
Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges
35,080 352,213 241,500 2,532,152 202,114
5,300 2,450 7,625 60,700 7,550
40,380 354,663 249,125 2,592,852 209,664
With the upward trend in Turdisposable income, key’s domestic consumption of citrus has been
9,107 254,189 24,948 151.374
79,367 1,679,523 403,269 1,625,030 31,000
5,700 349,379 13,310 79,900 27,000
85,067 2,028,902 416,579 1,704,930 58,000
149 30,529 16
15,545 894,173 1,525
16,415 999,730 1,525
Mandarins Sour oranges
1,137 18,423 6,767 166,578 3,667
the Turkish request.
an increase in this concession from 60 to 80 percent, so that Turkey would have equal access to the EC along with the Maghreb countries of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria. Because of French and Italian pres-
Turkey where only a few years ago
to figures pubby the State Planning Office, per capita consumption of citrus in Turkey
Handgrading and packing of Turkish oranges. About 10 major and five small packinghouses process Turkey’s total citrus output.
kilograms is 13.3 at approximately the same as United States, but in the the rate of growth in Turkey While U.S. citrus is faster. consumption rose from 12.8 kilograms per person in 1969 to 13.5 kilograms in 1975 (a jump of 5.6 per-
of other citrus fruits; there-
been very interested in expanding production. Most citrus in Turkey is sold on the tree by orchard; therefore,
However, the Of-
a citrus exin
and all exports have be registered before
shipment. Currently, Turkey
EC’s export standards under the administration of
fice of the U.S. Agricultural
key increased from 11.5 to 13.3 kilograms a gain of the percent during 15
Attache in Ankara calculated average prices per ton received by farmers during 1977 for different types of citrus. They were (with export prices per ton in parentheses): Lemons
The Export Promotion Research Center (IGEME), an autonomous export promotion agency created in 1960 and operating under
Projections indicate that
consumpby no means leveling
expected to increase to 18.1 kilograms during 1976-87. During this time, tangerine and orange consumption is expected to grow by 44 and 21 percent, off;
the smallest of
Furthermore, grapefruit prices have been
generally lower than those
quantity and Turkish citrus
lemon supply. The amount of Turkish citrus processed for juice is
About 5,000 tons each of lemons and grapefruit, and 15,000 tons of oranges are used for the juice-process-
order to promote the sale of citrus overseas and make Turkish fruit competitive with other supplying
15,000 tons of oranges arc imported annually from Cy-
ess Turkey’s total citrus production. Although sev-
helps local companies im-
grees Farenheit for 5-6 months. By using this storage method, Turkey is provided with a year-round
There are approximately 10 major and five small packinghouses that proc-
and trucked to near the town of Nevsehir in centra! Anatolia, where they are kept in caves at a constant temperature of about 60 de-
grapefriut $105 ($150).
lemons are wrapped, packed,
approximately eightfold during 1976-87. Grapefruit has not been generally accepted by consumers in Turkey, but an educational program currently is being conducted by the Governbenefits of grapefruit con-
tangerines $210 ($320); and
anges $200 per ton
countries, the instituted
variety suitable for juicing.
Turkey produces a
ety of excellent
have received help from World Bank loans are
scheme by which an
porter that ships $1.4 mil-
modern units with automated operation, the bulk of the packing is still done manually. The equipment is
worth of citrus receives a 10-percent tax rebate; a 15-percent rebate is given if exports exceed $1.4 mil-
lion in value.
as the cost transportation makes Italian,
Sleeping lemons are an
equipment not compewith the European titive
important factor in Turkey’s lemon marketing. The term
Citrus exporters must be
lemons that are caves for summer Page 7
prus because they are of a
juices, but unfortunately the is
make them competitive
with those of other producing countries.
plants are forced
even at financial because the Govgranted
to the firms to build only
the juice products were exported.
such as Mexican vegetables sold to Canada. States
Or fair value can be based on the item’s "constructed
value” (cost of production, marketing, and a reasonable profit margin).
Of Vegetable Dumping
Within 30 days of receipt
By Gretchen Meimpel
an antidumping petition
Treasury must sign the order to begin the inof the
and must be published
Federal Register. Notice
winter vegetable antidump-
case was published the Register of October ing
a Withholding of Appraise-
ment Notice will be published, and appraisal of imports will be suspended for up
months, if both an and an importer
so request. During this
enter the United
States only after a bond
posted equal in value to both current duties and estimated special dumping duties. In the case of consignment sales, or other sales where the transaction
does not occur
prior to the
—which common with Mexican winvegetables — the bond dates
at less than fair value,
At the time of the order's signing,
an allegation by Florida growers that vegetable producers are Mexican dumping fresh winter vegetables in the United States than
growers are concerned that Mexican winter vegetable imports whose share of the U.S. market is growing
with U.S. produce
November and April. The Florida vegetable
less than fair value.
over 95 percent of the winter vegetables imported into the
value of an improduct is usually determined as being the
price at which the
The petition for an antidumping investigation was filed September 12, 1978,
the exporting country.
a similar product
Association, the Palm Beach-Broward (counties) for Farmers Committee Legislative Action, and South Florida Tomato and Vegetable Growers (a pro-
exported to countries other than the United States that domestic sales give an
Act of 1921, as amended. Products covered by the probe are fresh tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, eggplant,
and squash that enter
the United States between
inadequate basis for comparison, an alternative test of fair value must be used. This
the product sold do-
different from that exported to the
as the different quality of winter vegetables sold, for instance,
an agricultural economist, Market Economies Division,
price of the lar try
or a simi-
product sold to a counother than the United
nary injury investigation.
within 30 days, the ITC de-
termines there is no reasonable indication of injury, Treasury will terminate the investigation.
can vegetables, Treasury found that there was evidence on record concernor likelihood
of injury to, the U.S.
fore the ITC
were or were not
could be expected by mid-March 1979, unless Treasury determines the nation
lease of the tentative decision
may be postponed
an additional 3
the notice (mid-June). If
has 3 months after the tenruling
issue a final ruling.
were made fair
value, the case to
ITC has 3 months to determine if these sales have caused injury to the domestic industry. If
nation that sales were
If a request for a 6-month withholding of appraisal is not received from both an importer and an exporter, the initial determination of sales at less than fair value becomes the final one. In other cases, Treasury
at this stage.)
must equal the
the case of the Mexi-
Trade Commission (ITC) to conduct a prelimi-
to the petitioners
by the Southwest Florida Winter Vegetable Growers
ducers’ group) under provisions of the Antidumping
value and that they injured the domestic industry, Treasury will periodically review the fair value of such imports at less
duty equal to any existing dumping margin. The public is permitted
stages beginning with the submission of evidence by the produc-
of the investigation,
Imfiling the petition. porters also are allowed to
prior to the final determination
conferences” which involve Foreign Agriculture
Top: Worker in Sinaloa, Mexico, harvests vine-ripened tomatoes; Left: A load of sweet green peppers is unloaded at a Sinaloa packinghouse. Mexico’s share of the U.S. fresh vegetable market has risen from 28-30 percent in the 1960’s to 40-45 percent in 1977/78.
After an tion
For further information on the case submission of evidence, contact Mr. Michael Ready, U.S. Customs or
nical Branch, 1301
Washington, D.C. telephone (202) 566-5492. N.W.,
foreign governments usual-
negative determination the
date such a hearing quested.
at less than fair value,
held within 3
usually scheduled within 5 weeks. Foreign producer and government involvement is always accepted, and the
public hearings are usually
are notified prior to the
Cooperation of foreign producers with the Customs reinvestigators Service sponsible for collecting the necessary data is helpful. If an adequate amount of information cannot be collected the Treasury Depart-
ment may make
based on whatever informais available, even though it is limited.
the United States
imported 785.4 million pounds of Mexican winter tomatoes, compared with the 1970-75 annual average of 615.4 million pounds. Imports of squash were 66.9 year,
pounds compared with a million
million pounds in compared with an
pounds in 1970-75; and green pepper imports were 112.9 million pounds in 1977, compared with a 72.8million-pound 1970-75.
the U.S. fresh market varies
considerably from the
million-pound average in 1970-75. Eggplant imports
were 31.9 million pounds in 1977 and averaged 27.5 million pounds for the 1970-75 period.
Cucumber imports were Page 9
region of the United States to the northeast, but for the total U.S.
market the Mexican share has risen from 28 to 30 percent in the mid-1960’s to 4045 percent in 1977/78.
million bales for the previ-
World Cotton Output Lower, Exports Rise
ous season. World cotton tion in 1978/79
62 million bales, about
preliminary information from main cotton producing countries. Exports, how-
World cotton production in 1978/79 is estimated at about 60.4 million 480-lb bales down about 3 mil-
above that Most of the
Japan, and Korea expecting the greatest growth. With world cotton conIndia,
sumption expected to exceed production by 1-2 million bales, stocks could
2 million from
should rise slightly from the 1977/78 level. Foreign production is forecast at around 49.5 milan increase of lion bales 400,000 bales, but below the earlier estimate as drought in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to limit recovery from the low 1977/78 output. PRC cotton production for 1978/79 is forecast at about 9.6 million bales,
24 million bales on August 1. This lower total still would be above the 21-million-bale low reached on August 1, 1977. World cotton exports are
with a revised 9.2
forecast at 20 million bales
million estimated for 1977/
team of more than 50 imJapanese food
veloped regions. The project area covers 30 percent of the agricultural land and half the agricultural population in Bos-
designed to increase production of 12,000 individually owned farms and extend output on 9,500 hectares It
the public sector.
tension service, facilities to
improve livestock breeds and crop varieties, artificial insemination, and farm machine repair facilities for in-
An important feature
the five cities, the Jap-
provide the bulk of the anticipated expansion
expected to foster growth through support services to farmers and diversification and expansion of processing facilities. Three commercial banks two Japanese and one French have signed a sector
a $20-million project.
loan for the
volume represents products such as grains, soybeans, and cotbulk
ever to visit the United States for the sole purpose of buying U.S. food products and meeting with U.S. food industry people.
The team was comprised
met with representatives of 240 U.S. companies, and held seminars on Japanese food safety and customs regulations. Both Japanese and American participants expressed pleasure with the
key decision-makers from leading Japanese supermarkets, department stores, wholesale firms, and trading companies.
planned mission. Tohru Noda, managing
and public sectors. producers will
plays of U.S. food products,
The Japanese team was
organized by the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Tokyo.
is the adoption an integrated approach toward agriculture, based on cooperation between the
Orleans, they also met with
able cotton exports to resume after being limited by short crops the past two
of the country.
with U.S. exporters
and agro-industries project in Bosnia-Herzegovina, one
expected larger Indian crop will permit siz-
Yugoslav Farm Loan Approved
purchasing an estimated $100 million worth of U.S. processed and consumerready foods during a 2week buying mission to five
The World Bank has apa $55-m ion loan
Japan October 27
Hankyu Department Stores, and chairman of the Japanese group, said, director of
"Buying tours of this kind an excellent way to initiate new business with the United States and find are
suppliers of the proc-
essed food products need to buy.”
of a drive to increase U.S.
processed food sales to Japan, which is U.S. agriculture’s largest export market. In the U.S. fiscal year that
The group’s activities were coordinated by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) with the assistance of the
Agri-Trade Council (MIATCO), headquartered in Chicago; the Eastern U.S. Agricultural Food and Export Council (EUSAFEC), New York; the Southern United States Trade Association (SUSTA), New Ortional
and the State Departments of Agriculture in Washington and Oregon. Since each of the releans,
gional organizations repre-
agriculture departments, the
displays viewed by the team drew products from
almost 40 states.
Tokyo, U.S. Ambassador
Mike Mansfield (right) and Attache Dudley Williams with team leaders Tohru Noda (left) and Elichi Kamimura. Below, far left: New York host J. Roger Barber, Agriculture Commissioner and president of EUSAFEC. Below left: Meat Importers Hiroaki Oshima and Kunitaro Ueda.
uring the past 13 years,
Thailand’s rice exports
have demonstrated notable shifts in destination.
By Dean Richards
New markets have opened Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam, and certain countries in the Mideast, Africa, and Europe. In the same period, Thai rice imports by some other countries, notably India and Japan, have declined or ceased. Led by Indonesia, the world’s largest importer of rice, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipup,
and Singapore have doubled imports of Thai rice since 1965. Between 1965 and 1977 imports rose from 611,196 tons to 1.3 million. (All volumes are pines,
As a percentage
market share has risen from 34 to 45 percent during those 13 years. In 1977, Thailand supplied the ASEAN group with 50 percent of its total the
Top: Harvesting Thai rice. Below: Harvester performing a balancing act as he unloads rice harvested from the field in the background into the boat. Thailand is a major rice exporter.
depend on Thai-
land for the bulk of their rice imports. Malaysia,
which took 55 percent of its rice imports from Thailand in 1965, pushed the percentage to 90 in 1977. Similarly, the Philippines went from 22 percent to 96 percent and Singapore from 73 percent to 99 percent. However, the volume of total imports by the Philippines has been down from past years.
ports of 2.9 million tons, up from only 5 percent in 1965. Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Laos, and Vietnam are Thailand’s major Asian customers outside the ASEAN grouping. Recently im-
proved relations with Southsocialist countries should further strengthen Thailand’s position as a major rice supplier. This is
especially true so long as
could compete strongly with Thailand continues to be hampered by a lack of vigorous production policies. rice
Larger exports to Southeast Asia and Bangladesh,
however, are not likely to make up for the cut in Thailand’s sales to the
increases in total grain proparticularly of rice duction have enabled these countries to cut their Thai rice
rice imports. In
percent of its total rice imports of almost 2 million tons from Thailand in 1977. This represented 29 percent of Thailand’s rice ex-
1965, these three coun-
imported 488,460 tons
of Thai rice.
forced it to import rice from many sources, got more than 40
tinations for Thai
years has been the move away from Asian to African markets. Whereas 76 percent of all Thai rice exports went to Asian countries in 1965, only 63 percent went in
purchased no Thai rice, and combined purchases by Japan and the Philippines were down to 72,301 tons.
Indonesian Discounting imports which have risen dramatically in recent years and make up a disproportionate share of Asian imports of Thai rice Thai
The author is an agricultural economist. Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service. Page 12
exports to Asia have dropped from 71 percent of total Thai rice exports in 1965 to 34 percent in 1977. rice
On the other hand, the share of Thai rice exported to Africa has risen during the past 13 years.
of Thailand’s rice ex-
By 1977, thisfigure had climbed went
Thailand also has boosted its market share of
percent of its imported rice from Thailand. By 1977, the total
importer of Thai rice
Indonesia and the single largest African buyer. Da-
homey was the second est
Africa, taking 101,860
of this rice
transshipped to Nigeria after congestion in the port of Lagos forced Nigeria to
use of Porto Novo.
ports of Thai rice
Thai rice doubled between
land’s total rice exports.
chases the latteryear reaching 233,735 tons. Although Thai rice
— largely because price — Pakistan’s basmati of
the region’s pre-
percent of Thai-
Future rises in Thai rice exports are likely to remain tied to the country’s production level, since export prices have
little effect on producer prices under the
about 31 percent in 1965, Thailand’s share of the Mideast market fell to 16 percent in 1977. Thai rice exports to the Middle East as a percentage of total Thai rice exports have remained fairly at
stable at 9 percent.
ever, the Kriangsak
is committed to perdomestic farm gate prices to increase, which
allow a better correla-
between domestic and
world prices, and, ultimate-
domestic production. Since 1965, Thai rice production has increased by about 35 percent from 7.7 ly,
Saudi Arabia and South Yemen have been the most important long-term Mideastern customers for Thai rice since 1965 with South Yemen acting as distributor
million tons to 10.4 million in
1977. During the 1965-77
tons annually, ranging from a low of 849,000 tons in
Persian Gulf States. 1977, Thai exports of
47.000 tons to the Yemen Arab Republic matched those to South Yemen. That
1973 to a high of 2.9 million tons
the former country
topped other Persian Gulf buyers, each taking about
plus those of Nigeria,
in eighth importer of
order of importance, Thailand’s top 10 rice importers
MalayLanka, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Dahomey, Viet-
Neither Nigeria nor Da-
homey was an
bered just 13 African counas customers, of which two were in West Africa. By
1976, however, the total risen
urban populations along Africa’s Atlantic coast have boosted demand for rice. ing
As the region’s population grows, Thailand can expect increase rice sales there, provided prices remain
Western Europe have nearly doubled since 1965, but the share from Thailand has percent.
Middle Eastern countries now buying rice from Thailand has risen from seven countries in 1965 to 11 in 1977.
buyer of Thai rice prior to 1976. In fact, Thailand had few customers in Africa at In
more than 60
U.S. rice exports
have largely replaced Thailand’s
Belgium/Luxembourg and West Germany have been more than offset by sharp cutbacks by Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom. Ironically, Denmark and the United Kingdom, Thailand’s two largest European rice importers in 1965,
have reduced purchases to a point where they were Thailand’s smallest European customers in 1977. In that year, Western Europe’s im-
During the first quar1978 (January-March), Thailand exported 577,698 tons of rice, 304,294 tons percent going to 52 ASEAN countries. Indonesia alone took 163,439 tons. kets.
customer outside the
group, taking 62,606 tons of total African imports of 81,649 tons. The African
amounted to 14 percent of Thailand’s total rice
immediate future are expected to remain about the
as in Exports to
tries will will
counas other South-
east Asian importers.
— and especially West African — countries also can
take larger amounts of Thai rice.
in destinations for Thai rice during the past 13 years has been the move away from Asian to African markets.”
FAS/MIATCO Team To Visit Mexican Dairy Cattle Show
19,000 head of U.S.
cattle in 1979, and Mexico is the top market for Wisconsin breeding cat-
tle,” Sullivan said.
The importance of Mexico as a market for top-quality U.S. breeding cattle will
be underlined by the visit of an FAS/MIATCO (Mid1
America International AgriTrade Council) dairy cattle trade team to the National
Mexican such which FAS and
U.S. breed associations will
the Queretaro show, and will take a swing through the area to visit outstanding dairy farms.
Team members meet with
banking industry to discuss methods by which purchases of U.S. cattle can best be financed. FAS, U.S. breed associaof the
share a booth taro
manned who will
by representatives discuss U.S. breeding livestock with dairy breeders
October 1-8, 1978; the last will be the National Beef Cattle Show, date and place still to be
Jim Sullivan, Livestock and Meat Marketing Specialist for the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, and
coordinator of the MIATCO project, said in a telephone interview with Foreign Agriwhile one purculture, that
The FAS/MIATCO team meet with cattle buyers
an export council com12 Midwest State DeAgriculture
and expand exports and agricultural products.
pose of the trip is to follow up on U.S. breeding cattle sold
the past by
—the ultimate ob-
12,000 head of Wisconsin dairy breeding cattle
sold to that country.”
show, held every year, serves as dairy
a showplace for high-quality cattle, both imported
and bred by milk producers in the Queretaro and To-
—along with Canada, country’s major com—supplies most
South Africa’s production 1978 was an estimated 20,000 metric tons, about 21 percent larger than the 1977 outturn and the third highest on record, according to a dispatch from James O. Howard, U.S. Agricultural Attache in Pretoria. Exports of sultanas of dried fruit in
Mexico’s imported breeding
1978 are estimated at 6,400 tons, far raisins
Mexico bought 28,452 head of U.S. dairy In
$15.9 million, contribto
exports to Mexico totaling $664.4 million. Ninety-five percent of these imports were bulk commodities wheat, barley, sorghum, oil
levels of recent Exports of other dried fruits are expected to be at normal levels.
in 1978 is mainly a result of a doubling (about 1,000 tons) in
cake and meal, soybeans, hides and skins, seeds, and tallow being the most im-
37 percent rise (about 3,000
portant of these.
tons) in sultana production.
Transport Problems Hurt Canadian Grain Exports may
capacity level of 20.3 million tons.
With several factors impeding Canada’s movement of grains into export position, some foreign buyers reportedly are being asked to accept somewhat deferred delivery of shipments originally scheduled for the
Approximately 60 percent of Canada’s grain exports move through Thunder Bay, the balance going through
Churchill. However, only a
from the 1975-77 average of 44.7 million.
portion of the grain
Several factors have con-
from Thunder Bay are direct export shipments while most move by
tributed to the 55 percent
the eastern elevators.
laker vessel to transfer ele-
the lakes and the
Lawrence River. As of mid-October, grains
eastern transfer elevators only
compared with a
3-year (1975-77) average of 82.3 is
26.5 million bushels,
normal stock position in Deto
have been, and continue to be, below normal; problems of stock positioning have impeded the out-movement of types of grains as desired; a slowdown by railway switchmen delayed incoming grain cars; and a recent seaman’s strike held up laker shipments for 11 days.
peaches, and pears) in 1978 is estimated at about 3,900 tons about percent 26 smaller than the 1977 out-
because of small pear, and apple crops. More attractive returns in other markets were blamed turn
for the decline.
About 500 tons of raisins Muscat grapes, 750 tons of apricots, and 350 tons of peaches as well as the usual mixes are expected to be exported. Export prices are firm, and from
expected to domestic prices.
The United Kingdom 1977 held
(not subject to the
Dried Fruit Board)
Canada’s 1978/79 grain
1977, South Africa
To Set Record U.S. rice exports to Italy fiscal 1977/78 (OctoberSeptember) are expected to set a record of about 200,000 metric tons (rough basis) far above last year’s in
Such expectations are supported by a report from the Office of the General Sales Manager showing accumulated rice exports to Italy during marketing year 1977/78 (August-July) at 211,600 tons. In contrast, during the 7 years prior to U.S.
at only $15,000.
The value expected ceed $42 only
of this year’s
and exporter of rice in Western Europe. Italy’s output set records of over
million tons during 1973-75.
South Africa’s leading customer for dried fruits, although its share of total South African dried fruit exports declined to 35 percent from 45 percent in 1976 and 38 percent in 1975.
clined 6 percent from the year-earlier level because
1978 is attributed to a combination of higher advance prices set by the Dried Fruit Board and favorable weather. South Africa’s domestic production
Dale E. Hathaway, Assistant Secretary Commodity Programs. R.
No. 48 27,
for International Affairs
has determined is
the transaction of public business required
Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service.
Department. Use of funds
Foreign Agriculture has been ap-
proved by the Director, Office of Management
and Budget, through June
30. 1979. Yearly
subscription rate: $38.00 domestic, $48.00
Horsley, Assoc. Editor; G. H. Baker; Marcellus P. Murphy;
Aubrey C. Robinson; Lynn A. Krawczyk; Isabel A. Smith.
foreign; single copies
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D C. 20402 Con-
magazine may be reprinted freely. commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by tents of this
Richard A. Smith, Chairman; Richard M. Kennedy; J. Don Looper; Larry N. Marton; Jimmy D. Minyard; Turner L. Oyloe; Steven Washenko.
About 650 tons of prunes were imported to supplement short domestic sup-
production was 30 percent below the previous 3-year average, pushing prices to record highs and requiring larger imports to meet ex-
Secretary of Agriculture.
Kay Owsley Patterson,
that publication of this periodical
Since then, production has dropped back to more normal levels. In 1977/78
or Foreign Agricultural Service.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON D C 20250 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AGR 101
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE *300 OFFICIAL BUSINESS
Farm T rade Outlook
Soviet Union to
less cotton to export, especially
Western markets. In
cotton prices have been com-
despite a smaller crop, the United States have a good supply of cotton available for export
Livestock and products. Volume of 1979 exports of livestock and livestock products is likely to be little changed from last year’s, but higher unit prices should
export value somewhat above the $2.35 billion Prices will be influenced by inflation,
strong world demand, reduced supplies of
stimulate U.S. pork exports.
Poultry and egg exports are expected to continue to rise, with larger shipments forecast to the Caribbean, Japan, Hong Kong, and the EC. Fruits and vegetables. Export value of fruits and vegetables is expected to continue its upward trend beyond last year’s total of almost $1.9 billion, despite an anticipated decline in volume. Short U.S. crops of oranges, grapefruit, and lemons combined with increased competition from Mediterranean countries granted tariff preference by the EC will reduce the volume of citrus exports for the third straight year. U.S. supplies of raisins and tree nuts have been reduced by rain damage. Tobacco. Increases are seen for both volume and value of U.S. tobacco exports, which were worth $1.1 billion last
quality of the 1978 U.S. flue-cured
value from last
rice exports will
economics; and the political decisions on domestic agriculture and trade that are made by governments around the world. Weather is beyond control, and the world economy is outside the purview of USDA, but the U.S. Government can, through representation, try to influence government decisions that affect the course of agricultural trade, n
Organization and location
Nov. 27Dec. 8
Nov. 30Dec. 1
U.S. -USSR Joint
Nov. 30Dec. 5
U.S.-USSR group of experts and Joint Commercial Commission meeting, Moscow.
Rome. Committee on Agricultural
meeting, Chicago. 4-6
working party, agricultural
ad hoc committee on Integrated for Commodities, Geneva.
Cocoa Organization, London.
ad hoc meeting on animal feeding, Paris.
Development, Rome. 11-15
International Sugar Organization
Conference on Tea, London.
crop, relatively low stocks of U.S. leaf in many countries, and the decline in the value of the dollar, which has held the cost of U.S. tobacco in major foreign currencies to about the same level as a year ago. In other commodities, exports of sugar and tropical
and stronger foreign currencies. An export decline is expected only in dairy products, primarily because nonfat dry milk now is being sold at “world prices" that are far below those of a year ago. Shipments of beef and slaughter cattle to Canada are expected to rise because of reduced Canadian production and easing of PBB restrictions. Beef exports to Japan also are expected to increase, and mandatory slaughter to eradicate swine fever in the Dominican Republic
likely decline from last year’s $833 million, based on the expectation of substantially lower unit prices combined
petitive and, will
year’s $572 million.
Continued from page 4
Agricultural Cooperator Council/FAS,
working party, meat, Paris.