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Historic, Do not Archive Document assume content scientific knowledge, reflects current policies, or practices. / / November Foreign 27,...

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Historic,

Do

not

Archive Document

assume content

scientific

knowledge,

reflects current

policies, or practices.

/

/ November

Foreign

27,

1978

Foreign Agricultural

Agriculture

Service U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

2 Trade Outlook:

Another Banner Year For U.S. Farm Exports 4.

U.S. Cotton

-j j

Sales to Swiss Hit 20-Year High 6 Future Of Turkey

Citrus Output

Probes Allegation Of Vegetable 8 U.S.

Dumping 10 Japanese

Team Completes U.S. Buying Trip

12 Thailand’s

Rice Export

Markets Change

Unloading rice-laden boat in Thailand



Trade Outlook:

Another Banner Year

US. Farm Exports

For

By Thomas

Saylor

R.

Abundant domestic supplies and continued strong world demand could lift U.S. farm exports to another record tentatively projected at $29 billion in fiscal 1979. If achieved, this would be the 10th straight record for U.S. farm exports, heightening agriculture’s already strong contribution to the U.S. economy.



W



demand

orld

pected

to

for

U.S. agricultural

products

continue strong during 1978/79.

is

ex-

Despite

the record grain crop

in the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. farm exports are projected to exceed those of last year. Export tonnage may change little, but it looks like improved prices for the major commodities will push the United States to another record export value of about $29 billion. That would be 6 percent greater than in fiscal

1978.

At the

same

at $14.1

time, U.S. agricultural imports are forecast

billion,

which would leave a record surplus

in

which could range from $26 billion to $32 billion, will depend to a large extent on what happens to the Southern Hemisphere crops between now and next spring. But other factors beside weather bear on the total,

level of agricultural exports.

Economic expansion can tell us a great deal about the strength of foreign demand. Growth in the world economy is

expected

to

be a

bit

at least the first half

better

1979 than

in

outlook

are projected to rise slightly

is

in

it

was

in

1978

Growth rates Japan, most of Europe

promising.

The author

is Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service. This article is taken from his November 14 speech at the National Food and Agricultural Outlook Conference, Washington, D.C.

Page 2

grain.

They have stayed with than cut back on use



in

that decision



to import rather

the years since, and this has

produced a substantial market for U.S. corn and wheat. Even with a record 1978 crop now expected to be about 230 million tons, expanded meat output, along with stocks that have been depleted by previous crop shortfalls, could lead the Soviets to take sizable imports from the inter-

agricultural trade of almost $15 billion.

The export

except the United Kingdom, and in Canada, which means improved demand in these traditional markets. Little change is seen among the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations, but expansion will continue in most of the non-OPEC developing countries, which are taking increasing amounts of U.S. products. Growth rates are expected to be highest in the developing countries of East Asia, notably South Korea and Taiwan, which have substantial capacity for continued growth as markets for U.S. agricultural commodities. The world monetary situation also impacts on U.S. agricultural exports, although the actual effect is difficult to measure. Obviously, monetary exchange rates have little or no effect on exports of products in which trade is impeded by institutional barriers, such as variable levies, or for which demand is inelastic. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that overall U.S. competitive potential was improved by floating the dollar in the early part of this decade, and that exports of feedstuffs and other products not subject to these barriers benefited from its downward slide in recent months. Two weeks ago, for example, when the dollar was at its low against the Deutsche mark, the price of soybean meal in West Germany was the same in marks as it had been 10 years earlier. That cannot help but stimulate export sales. The point is that the impact of the dollar’s exchange rate is commodity and market specific. In the bulk commodities, its effects are most likely to be felt on soybeans, which are bound duty-free in the European Community, and to some extent on cotton. Little effect is likely on wheat, and the effect on corn might be termed mixed. Also important to trade are political factors. These are the domestic and trade policy decisions made in agriculture by the U.S. and foreign governments. For example, while bad weather sharply cut back the Soviet grain crop in 1972, it was a political decision made earlier to improve consumer diets that sent the Soviet Union into the world market for 21 million metric tons of

national market.

appears that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a political decision to open its doors to U.S. farm products, resulting in substantial sales of grains and cotton last year and into this year. How wide and for how long the doors will be open will depend on decisions by It

made

Government of the PRC. These decisions work the other way, of course. The inauguration by the European Community in 1962 of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) had a profound and generally negative effect on U.S. agricultural exports. The introduction of EC variable levies in 1962 destroyed a U.S. broiler market in the Community that had reached over 66,000 tons before the levies were imposed. Less apparent because it is masked by increases in U.S. grain shipments to the EC is the restraint on this the

Foreign Agriculture

growth applied by the variable levies of the CAP. The loss cannot be quantified, but it is evident from the fact that while annual domestic consumption of grain in the EC has risen by 26 million tons since 1960/61, net imports have declined by about 6 million tons, even though it would have been cheaper for the EC to buy grain from the import market.

This and other EC decisions, such as trade preferences, have been long-term factors in U.S. export trade. There also has been a return to more aggressive marketing of grains as the EC confronts the problem of surplus wheat and barley from a record 1978 grain crop and the increased use of feedgrain substitutes. The decision seems to have been made for wheat and

move this surplus regardless of the cost or impact on other countries’ trade. Exports are being subsidized to dispose of the surplus in third-country maran exportable supply of about 5 million tons of kets wheat and 3 million of barley. The subsidy of $100 or more a ton on wheat is likely to encourage export sales to nontraditional EC markets, such as Eastern Europe and even the PRC, to the detriment of U.S. wheat sales to barley to



those regions.

On feedstuffs, high grain prices have stimulated increased imports of nongrain feed ingredients, such as manioc, bran, fruit pulp, and others. Vigorous French protests of this trend have put pressure on the EC Commission to find solutions to the feedgrain substitutes issue. Several actions are being considered that would affect EC during 1979 and the years ahead.

U.S. exports to the

One, for example, involves limitations on imports of manioc, which has become a major element in EC compound feeds in recent years. EC manioc imports last year totaled about 4 million tons. In contrast to grains, manioc is imported at a very low duty. Combined with duty-free soybean meal, it becomes a cheaper feed base than the traditional feedgrain/soybean meal mix.

now appears that the EC will try to enter into an It agreement with Thailand, its major supplier, guaranteeing market access but limiting imports of manioc from Thailand probably to around the present level. The manioc issue affects U.S. exports of both soybeans and corn and in opposite ways. Growth in the use of manioc has generated more use of soybean meal to the benefit of U.S. exports of soybeans and meal. At the same time, manioc as a substitute for





grain has cost the United States corn exports to the that

outweigh the gains

in

EC

soybeans and meal.

The European Community is the largest U.S. market, worth $6.6 billion last fiscal year. On the other side of the world, Japan, a $4-bil ion-pl us market, has a rice crop that will boost its stocks of rice to about 6 million tons. Stocks of this size hanging over its domestic agriculture I

are a problem for the Japanese Government.

Should Japan decide to try to solve it by subsidizing use or into export, trading patterns for the United States and other countries would be affected not rice for feed

only for rice, but for other grains as well.

Decisions

like

those are being made continuously by in the trading community, af-

governments somewhere

one degree or another. They unpredictable, like the weather. But, unlike the

fecting agricultural trade to

may be

November

27,

1978

weather, they can be controlled, and there is an effort underway in Geneva by about 100 countries to reach collective decisions that will influence trade for years to

come. The outcome of these multilateral trade negotiations is uncertain. The United States is working to break the impasse created by the EC reaction to the pending expiration of the U.S. -countervailing duty waiver. Meanwhile, much has been accomplished in work with other trading partners, and the U.S. target still is December 15 for completion of the negotiations; it can be done and done



with meaningful gains for U.S. agriculture.

Another group

meeting

is

in

to work out Wheat Agree-

Geneva, trying

a set of rules to replace the International

ment. At this point, the prospects are uncertain.

agreement.

However,

new And they probably can complete an agree-

negotiations have

come

a long

way

in

constructing a

ment that will be in the interest of U.S. producers before the end of the year. But some very hard issues lie ahead. What is certain in both of these negotiations is that unless the participating nations demonstrate a confidence in their ability to make and abide by decisions to foster freer, more orderly trade, the pressures to turn inward to

protectionism

will

be insurmountable.

Grain and feed. The record world grain crop may bring a slight reduction in volume of U.S. grain and feed exports. However, improved prices over those of a year

wheat and sorghum, could push value up by maybe $500 million from last year's total of $11.7

earlier, primarily for

billion. In

is expected to decline marginally record or near-record crops, with by perhaps 2 million tons from last

wheat, world trade

under the impact U.S. exports

down

of

year’s shipments

Production inof $32.8 million tons. creases are projected for Canada, Australia, Argentina, Western Europe, the Soviet Union, and India. Strong competition in the world market is likely, particularly from the European Community, with its substantial export subsidies, and also from Canada and from Australia, where the weather has been very favorable for late crop development. The Soviet Union, which has produced a wheat crop estimated at 115 million tons, is likely to import the minimum amount of wheat from the United States required under the Grain Sales Agreement, which is 3 million tons. This compares with 3.4 million tons last fiscal year.

On the other hand, the PRC, where the 1978 harvest apparently was below plan, is importing grain at a record rate. This year, the PRC is expected to import substanmore wheat from the United States than in fiscal 1978. Shipments to Japan are expected to turn upward again after last year’s reduced volume, depending on how Japan addresses its rice surplus. Increases also are seen in Western Europe outside the Community, and in most of Asia and Africa. The EC will continue to import high-quality wheat for blending, but U.S. shipments are likely to be down somewhat from last year’s level of almost 2.5 million tons. World demand for feedgrains continues to increase, but the increase in 1978/79 production to a record of about 732 million tons is likely to exceed gains in consumption. In this situation, the United States will be fortunate to

tially

Page 3

— made

hold the gain

last

year,

when feedgrain exports

rose by almost 5 million tons to 55.5 million tons. Of the three largest U.S. feedgrain markets last year Japan, the EC, and the Soviet Union, each of which took slightly over 11

show an

million tons

— only

Japan

is

expected

to

Cotton Sales to Swiss

U.S.

20-Year High

Hit

1977/78

in

Again, and as in the case of wheat, the disposition of surplus Japanese rice could affect the increase.

outcome.

EC are expected to derecord EC coarse grain crop

U.S. feedgrain exports to the cline

and

under the impact

of a

internal prices that favor feeding of

wheat and barley

over imported corn. In addition, an exportable EC barley surplus of about 3 million tons is likely to adversely affect U.S. corn exports to third-country markets. Even after a very poor corn harvest, the Soviet Union is expected to import less U.S. corn because the total Soviet feedgrain crop was second only to that of 1976. This decline should be just about offset by export gains to Eastern Europe, where late rains have damaged coarse grains, and to the PRC, which last year imported no U.S. feedgrains.

Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, and Iran also should be good markets for U.S. corn in fiscal 1979. Oilseeds and products. The value of U.S. exports of oilseeds and products is projected at $8.1 billion for fiscal 1979, a gain of 9 percent, as world demand for high protein feeds continues to expand. Above-trend gains are seen for production among U.S. competitors, but a large share of that expected increase will not become available until after Southern Hemisphere harvests next March and April. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of soybeans and meal are expected to increase significantly during October-March, reflecting the short soybean harvest in Brazil last spring. What happens in the second half of the current year will depend largely on the Brazilian harvest next spring. Some reduction is expected in U.S. exports of soybean oil because of accelerated competition from Malaysian Brazil,

palm

oil,

that for

and demand for meal is expected to exceed which could put downward pressure on oil

oil,

prices.

The volume

of U.S.

soybean exports

is

forecast to rise

from the record 19.7 million tons of last year. At time, despite record U.S. supplies of 1979-crop soybeans, prices are expected to average somewhat above those of a year ago. This reflects increased domestic and foreign demand, as well as producer decisions to hold beans off the market. Cotton. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 5.8 million bales, down slightly from those of fiscal 1978, but still the slightly

the

same

second highest total in the last 10 years. World import demand is expected to continue strong. In Japan, economic growth is stimulating cotton use, and an export gain is likely there. U.S. cotton shipments are expected to be up substantially to South Korea and other countries in Southeast and East Asia, which last year imported almost 3 million bales of U.S. cotton. Their competitive position in the world textile economy remains strong, and their need for imported cotton is rising. Continued drought in the PRC, which became the fourth largest U.S. cotton market last year, held back 1978 cotton production. As a result of weather problems, the

E

xports to

of

cotton

U.S.

Switzerland

20-year

high

hit

a

1977/78

in

(August-July) as importers

moved

there

to

capitalize

on bargain prices brought on by the U.S. dollar’s depreciation. Prospects for 1978/79, however, look less promising, building

since

stock-

Switzerland has far as it can. Total cotton imports by Switzerland during 1977/78 rose nearly 25 percent from the previous year’s to a in

gone about as

record 53,732 metric tons, with the United States a leading beneficiary. U.S. cotton exports there soared 63 percent over the 1976/77 level to 9,595 tons to recover the No. 1 supplier position held by the United States in 1974/75. The U.S. share of the market rose to 17.8 percent from 13.6 percent in 1976/77. Favorable U.S. prices in Swiss-franc terms for better qualities sought by the

Swiss

accounted for the gain, which followed a nearly 50 percent advance in 1976/ 77. Most of the U.S. cotton came from California, and

Philippines

the San Joaquin Valley inch

IVs

cotton

with

particular,

staple

in

of

length

dominating exports. Turkey was in the No. 2 spot, supplying 8,346 tons, or 132 percent more than

when

1976/77,

in

rose sharply

in

minimum

high

prices

response

to

prices

for

Turkish cotton. Other major last season included Egypt, Peru, Israel,

suppliers



Colombia in The USSR, usutop source, dropped and

Syria,

that order. ally a

10th place as imports from that country fell 68 percent from 1976/77’s. to

A notable shift in this was the enlarged demand for longer staple

trade

lengths used of

fine

in

production

fabrics.

Long and

extra-long staple cotton ac-

counted

for about 30 percent of the imports, against

25 percent

medium counted In

1976/77, and

for

40

percent.

contrast to the strong

import

use

in

staple lengths ac-

of

demand, domestic raw cotton declined

slightly to 47,496 tons last

season, reflecting sluggishness in both domestic and

Resumes Livestock Loans

The Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) has resumed lending to finance livestock projects under a second World Bank credit line, according to a dispatch from the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Manila. Loan applications eligible under the DBP financing programs include those for: • New projects for which the loan value exceeds 100 000 $ • Additional loans to existing borrowers, the total loan of which exceeds $100,000, including outstanding ,

.

balances. • Meritorious cases, such as additional loans for rehabilitation, restructuring, and consolidation, and the total loan for which (including outstanding balances) exceeds $ 100 000 ,

.

Continued on page 16

Page 4

!

Foreign Agriculture

export finished textiles.

demand

for Swiss and semifinished However, consump-

by members of the Swiss Textile Industry rose 12.5 percent from the 1976/77 level to tion of U.S. cotton

6,601 tons.

Reflecting

the

discrep-

ports in 1978/79. Current estimates indicate a 20 percent decline in the coun-

Indian Oilseed Output

raw cotton imports to about 42,000 tons. The United States is expected to supply about 7,500 tons. One of the key problems has been the instability of

the Indian

try’s

ancy between imports and usage, Swiss stocks of raw cotton by June 30, 1978, had risen 32 percent above those of the previous year

The unprecedented strength

to 25,764 tons.

of the

These large cotton stocks together with the weak



export

demand

for

Swiss

cotton yarn and other textiles

— have

dimmed

pros-

pects for Swiss cotton im-

the

dollar-Swiss franc

re-

which makes

lationship,

it

extremely risky to make forward purchases of cotton.

Swiss franc also has been a major factor behind

demand

the slack tain

Swiss

textiles

for cer-

— Based

on a dispatch from Homer Walters,

U.S.

F.

Agricultural

Attache, Bern.

The USSR’s 1978/79 cotton crop

is

with 8 million for the comparable period last

season. Reports continue that bolls in some replanted areas have not opened fully and that the frost and cool weather in early October have slowed the ripening process. Weather, in general, has been more favorable in recent weeks, and the harvesting rate has improved greatly.

However, it seems likely that the crop has been damaged enough to prevent it from equaling the 1977/78 record. Some provinces already have exceeded their Uzbekistan, the largest cotton producer,

reports the most difficulty.

Auto

1977/78 than

The

in

1976/77.

increases

seed output

total

in

the crops

for

were: 15.2 percent for ses-

ame,

rape,

and

mustard

seeds; 16 percent for flaxseed; and 23.2 percent for nigerseed.

According

to

the

Indian

begin producmotors capable running on 100 percent it

will

Rapeseed /mustardseed estimated at about in million hectares

area

is

1.7

1977/78, compared with the previous season’s adjusted estimate of 1.48 million hec-

about a 220,000 hec-

At the present time, gaso-

Sao Paulo, Rio de

20 percent. In 1977, petroleum imports cost the country $3.8 billion, more than a tenfold increase in just

tural

Attache

leum imports with alcohol produced from sugarcane, manioc, and other plant

Brazil

is

materials, the country’s au-

current

tomobile industry

exceed domestic consumption and export needs.

a large share of

announced

that

November

1978

27,

its

petro-

recently within

3

in

Brasilia.

the world’s largest

producer

of

manioc and,

sugarcane and in

both cases,

production

levels

The estimates

for

sesame

and niger seeds, both of which are final, show 1977/ 78 sesameseed production

was up by 64,200 tons to 486,000 tons, and area was to

seed production was 26,300 tons higher, reaching 139,600 tons. The area was 21,900 hectares greater, totaling 590,000 hectares.

The

rise

sesameseed

in

the planted area.

tains an alcohol mixture of

the Office of U.S. Agricul-

tions at

Pradesh, Orissa, and Karnataka. Seasonal condi-

planned that 16 percent of the automobiles made in Brazil will be fueled by alcohol by 1983, according to a report from

replacing

weather condisowing time.

favorable

season conditions

on the harvested crop from 65-70 percent of

alcohol.

of

Pradesh,

West Bengal, and Gujarat. These increases were largely attributable to Orissa,

based

Alcohol-Powered Car Motors

goal

Madhya

desh,

production was largely because of favorable growing-

Makers Plan

another step towards

for

cent of the planted area, and flaxseed outturn is

Janeiro, and

In

The area increases

rapeseed and mustardseed in 1977/78 (compared with area the previous season) were mainly in Uttar Pra-

up by 26,700 hectares

of

Brazil’s

to

1.431 million hectares.

2.3 million hectares. Niger-

line

is

up by 72,900 hectares

Flaxseed outturn was estimated at 500,000 tons. The rapeseed/mustardseed production estimate is based on harvest results from an estimated 50 per-

tion of car

it

was

tare rise. Flaxseed area

the previous season’s 1.562

tares,

years

Brazil’s

Government and trade sources show that area and production of rapeseed/mustardseed, flaxseed, sesameseed, and nigerseed were greater in

million tons.

estimated at 12.5 million bales (480 lb net), down from the record 12.7 million harvested last season. Soviet seed cotton deliveries continue to run somewhat behind last year’s rate. Deliveries through October 25 totaled 7.8 million tons,

delivery goals.

Data recently released by

trade, combined rapeseed/ mustardseed production was 1.8 million metric tons in 1977/78, compared with

Down

Soviet Cotton Production From Last Year’s Level

compared

Up

in

con-

Brasilia

5 years. Brazil has set a 1980 pro-

duction target of 3 billion liters of

alcohol for mixture

with gasoline.

To meet

this

raw material could be produced on 1.3 percent of Brazil’s estimated 47 million hectares goal, sufficient

Page

5

were good

tions

in

Uttar

in

Madhya

Pradesh, Orissa, and Maharashtra, causing farmers to increase nigerseed planted area. These States ac-

counted

for

most

of

the

in

sug-

production increase.

now

in

cropland.

Current

total

area

arcane and manioc is 1.8 million and 2.1 million hectares,

respectively.

Some

550,000 hectares of sugar-

cane and 85,000 hectares of manioc would be required to produce the plant material needed to achieve the 1980 alcohol-production goal.

Today, only about 5 percent of Brazil’s land area

is

under cultivation, but sharp increase is seen the next decade.

in

a

taking approximately 85-90

from the Izmir region.

Because

Lack of Suitable Land Turkey’s Citrus Output

in

k

A. Stern

growth

substantial

fter

production, exports,

consumption

and

during

regions where the weather is

key’s citrus industry ing

is

fac-

an uncertain future as

the

lack

restricts

land

crop

ex-

particularly

of

further

pansion,

lemons

suitable

of

— Turkey’s

citrus export item.

major As a re-

Turkey is not expected to present any major threat to lemon sales to U.S. Western Europe, at least not in the near future. Although there are some citrus-growing areas availsult,

able,

they

are

located

in

not as

Turkey’s

is

U.S. Agricultural

Attache, Ankara.

citrus

in

produc-

which totaled 1.05

tion,

metric tons

lion

in

mil-

1977/78,

(October-September),

is

centered in five major regions Adana, Igel, AnIzmir, talya, and Hatay Provinces. Some tangerine production is also located in the eastern Black Sea



is

citrus

for

particularly

lemons. Unfortunately, land area there is restricted by mountain ranges. Consequently, any expansion would have to take place in the Adana and Antalya areas where there is the risk of occasional frost. Amounting to only about 3.5 percent of total agricultural exports during the past few years, citrus exports, totaling 143,000 tons in 1976/77, have not been an important foreign exchange earner for Turkey. However, citrus exports do amount to about 85 percent of

total

fresh

fruit

ship-

ments. Turkey’s citrus exports grew during 1960-76, with

most

is located 1977/78, mostly in the Provinces of Antalya, Igel, and Hatay,

shipments going to Middle East or East European countries. But these markets have not proven to be a steady outlet for Turkey’s surplus

while lemon output (280,000

citrus production.

1977/78) is centered Tangerines are produced and mainly exported

Iran

area.

Orange production, which totaled 600,000 tons in

tons

The author

favorable as

current citrus groves.

the 1950’s and 1960’s, Tur-

suited

production,

Clouds Future of

A

favorable

its

climatic conditions, Igel ideally

By Walter

of

in

in Igel.

the

During the past few years, has been the major market for Turkish oranges,

percent of total orange shipments. However, during 1978, exports to this off country have fallen sharply because oranges were found to be too expensive for the average

consumer. Major outlets for Turkey’s tangerines have been Austria and West Germany, accounting for 64 percent of the market share during the

1976/77 season. Most of Turkey’s lemon exports are to Eastern Eu-

and West Germany; USSR, Romania, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria take rope

the

the major portion of ship-

ments.

Most of the bilateral trade agreements that have been signed between Turkey and East European countries have included exports of citrus as one of the products to be traded against industrial imports.

The

European

nity (EC)

Commu-

has also restricted

The

entry of Turkish citrus.

EC granted Turkey a tariff preference concession amounting imports

to

60 percent on

and

oranges

of

The

tangerines.

Turkish

Government has requested Turkey: Citrus Production and Trees, Selected Regions, 1975 Region and commodity

Production

Bearing

T rees Nonbearing

Total

Number

Number

Metric tons

Number

1,214 8,470 7,577 79,836 5,297

28,331

908

91,864 131,295 1,019,169 176,678

15,781

Adana: Grapefruit

Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges Antalya: Grapefruit

Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges

10,318 38,060 33,495

29,239 107,645 141,613 1,057,229 210,173

Lemons Mandarins Oranges Sour oranges

EC

turned

down

35,080 352,213 241,500 2,532,152 202,114

5,300 2,450 7,625 60,700 7,550

40,380 354,663 249,125 2,592,852 209,664

With the upward trend in Turdisposable income, key’s domestic consumption of citrus has been

9,107 254,189 24,948 151.374

79,367 1,679,523 403,269 1,625,030 31,000

5,700 349,379 13,310 79,900 27,000

85,067 2,028,902 416,579 1,704,930 58,000

tion, citrus

has been

duced

some

increasing rapidly.

990 2

100

0

100

149 30,529 16

15,545 894,173 1,525

870 105,557

16,415 999,730 1,525

Grapefruit

Mandarins Sour oranges

the

1,137 18,423 6,767 166,578 3,667

Izmir:

Lemons

sure,

the Turkish request.

Igel:

Grapefruit

an increase in this concession from 60 to 80 percent, so that Turkey would have equal access to the EC along with the Maghreb countries of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria. Because of French and Italian pres-

Page 6

0

to

In

addiintro-

parts

of

Turkey where only a few years ago

it

was

relatively

unknown. According

to figures pubby the State Planning Office, per capita consumption of citrus in Turkey

lished

Foreign Agriculture

Handgrading and packing of Turkish oranges. About 10 major and five small packinghouses process Turkey’s total citrus output.





kilograms is 13.3 at approximately the same as United States, but in the the rate of growth in Turkey While U.S. citrus is faster. consumption rose from 12.8 kilograms per person in 1969 to 13.5 kilograms in 1975 (a jump of 5.6 per-

consumption

of other citrus fruits; there-

have

producers

fore,

not

been very interested in expanding production. Most citrus in Turkey is sold on the tree by orchard; therefore,

establish

it

is

difficult

prices

paid

to to

However, the Of-

farmers.

a

member

of

union

porters’

a citrus exin

their

re-

and all exports have be registered before

gion, to

shipment. Currently, Turkey

is

using

EC’s export standards under the administration of

the

Turkish

the

Ministry

of

Tur-

fice of the U.S. Agricultural

Agriculture.

key increased from 11.5 to 13.3 kilograms a gain of the percent during 15

Attache in Ankara calculated average prices per ton received by farmers during 1977 for different types of citrus. They were (with export prices per ton in parentheses): Lemons

The Export Promotion Research Center (IGEME), an autonomous export promotion agency created in 1960 and operating under

cent),



same

in



period.

Projections indicate that

consumpby no means leveling

Turkey’s tion

is

citrus

expected to increase to 18.1 kilograms during 1976-87. During this time, tangerine and orange consumption is expected to grow by 44 and 21 percent, off;

it

is

respectively.

Grapefruit

which

is

citrus

fruits,

consumption,

the smallest of

all

$200

the

sumption.

Furthermore, grapefruit prices have been

generally lower than those

November

27,

1978

Commerce,

prove

the

quantity and Turkish citrus

lemon supply. The amount of Turkish citrus processed for juice is

minimal

cent

of

— about

5 perproduction.

total

About 5,000 tons each of lemons and grapefruit, and 15,000 tons of oranges are used for the juice-process-

exports.

ing industry.

order to promote the sale of citrus overseas and make Turkish fruit competitive with other supplying

15,000 tons of oranges arc imported annually from Cy-

ess Turkey’s total citrus production. Although sev-

of

out

of

helps local companies im-

grees Farenheit for 5-6 months. By using this storage method, Turkey is provided with a year-round

There are approximately 10 major and five small packinghouses that proc-

ment

point

($316);

Ministry

the

and trucked to near the town of Nevsehir in centra! Anatolia, where they are kept in caves at a constant temperature of about 60 de-

grapefriut $105 ($150).

that

to

or-

of

lemons are wrapped, packed,

quality

approximately eightfold during 1976-87. Grapefruit has not been generally accepted by consumers in Turkey, but an educational program currently is being conducted by the Governbenefits of grapefruit con-

($308);

administration

picked,

tangerines $210 ($320); and

eral

to gain

ton

anges $200 per ton

anticipated

it

per

the

The

sale.

the

of

packinghouses

of

In

countries, the instituted

a

rebate

variety suitable for juicing.

Turkey produces a

vari-

pure

fruit

ety of excellent

have received help from World Bank loans are

scheme by which an

porter that ships $1.4 mil-

production cost

modern units with automated operation, the bulk of the packing is still done manually. The equipment is

worth of citrus receives a 10-percent tax rebate; a 15-percent rebate is given if exports exceed $1.4 mil-

to

mostly

lion in value.

export,

as the cost transportation makes Italian,

ex-

lion

Sleeping lemons are an

equipment not compewith the European titive

important factor in Turkey’s lemon marketing. The term

product.

refers

to

stored

in

U.S.

Citrus exporters must be

lemons that are caves for summer Page 7

additional

prus because they are of a

Government tax

An

juices, but unfortunately the is

too high

make them competitive

with those of other producing countries.

juice

Some

of the

plants are forced

losses,

ernment

to

even at financial because the Govgranted

licenses

to the firms to build only

if

the juice products were exported.



— —

such as Mexican vegetables sold to Canada. States

Or fair value can be based on the item’s "constructed

Probes Allegation

U.S.

value” (cost of production, marketing, and a reasonable profit margin).

Of Vegetable Dumping

Within 30 days of receipt

By Gretchen Meimpel

an antidumping petition

of

meets

that

statutory re-

all

quirements,

Secretary

the

Treasury must sign the order to begin the inof the

and must be published

notice

vestigation,

the

in

Federal Register. Notice

Mexican

the

of

winter vegetable antidump-

case was published the Register of October ing

in

nation

made

a Withholding of Appraise-

ment Notice will be published, and appraisal of imports will be suspended for up

to 6

exporter

months, if both an and an importer

so request. During this

may

ports

1978.

im-

period,

enter the United

States only after a bond

is

posted equal in value to both current duties and estimated special dumping duties. In the case of consignment sales, or other sales where the transaction

does not occur

prior to the

—which common with Mexican winvegetables — the bond dates

export 19,

sales were

that

is

at less than fair value,

is

ter

At the time of the order's signing,

if

is

doubt

whether

substantial

injury

was done

T

he

Treasury

U.S.

partment

is

De-

checking

an allegation by Florida growers that vegetable producers are Mexican dumping fresh winter vegetables in the United States than

at less

the

At

growers are concerned that Mexican winter vegetable imports whose share of the U.S. market is growing





compete inequitably

will

with U.S. produce

fair value.

present

November and April. The Florida vegetable

time,

sold at

if

less than fair value.

The

over 95 percent of the winter vegetables imported into the

value of an improduct is usually determined as being the

United States.

price at which the

The petition for an antidumping investigation was filed September 12, 1978,

the exporting country.

Mexico

supplies

fair

a similar product

When

same

or

sold

in

is

quantity

the

sold

Association, the Palm Beach-Broward (counties) for Farmers Committee Legislative Action, and South Florida Tomato and Vegetable Growers (a pro-

exported to countries other than the United States that domestic sales give an

Act of 1921, as amended. Products covered by the probe are fresh tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, eggplant,

and squash that enter

the United States between

compared

with the

amount

inadequate basis for comparison, an alternative test of fair value must be used. This

when

the

also

is

case

the product sold do-

mestically

substantially

is

different from that exported to the

United States

—such

as the different quality of winter vegetables sold, for instance,

Mexican

the

in

Fair

The author

determined

an agricultural economist, Market Economies Division,

Service.

value

is

Foreign

Agricultural

price of the lar try

also

as

can

being

same

be the

or a simi-

product sold to a counother than the United

Page

8

Interna-

nary injury investigation.

If,

within 30 days, the ITC de-

termines there is no reasonable indication of injury, Treasury will terminate the investigation.

can vegetables, Treasury found that there was evidence on record concernor likelihood

injury to,

of injury to, the U.S.

in

and

industry,

was

fore the ITC

vegethere-

date

the

of

made the

were or were not

at less

or that

it

must issue

determination

tentative

that sales

than

fair

a

value,

discontinuing

is

investigation.

case,

the

of

investigation

notice, Treasury

a

tentative

this

In

determi-

could be expected by mid-March 1979, unless Treasury determines the nation

that the

case

is

one.

a particuIf

so, re-

lease of the tentative decision

may be postponed

an additional 3

months

for

after

the notice (mid-June). If

the

has 3 months after the tenruling

tative

made

is

issue a final ruling.

If

determination

sales

than

were made fair

referred

tentative determi-

to this

is

that

at

less

value, the case to

the

ITC.

is

The

ITC has 3 months to determine if these sales have caused injury to the domestic industry. If

there

is

a

final

determi-

nation that sales were

months

6

value of

full

If a request for a 6-month withholding of appraisal is not received from both an importer and an exporter, the initial determination of sales at less than fair value becomes the final one. In other cases, Treasury

drawn

not

at this stage.)

Within

must equal the

the merchandise.

final

the case of the Mexi-

(In

larly difficult

market.

the

Trade Commission (ITC) to conduct a prelimi-

table

so small

Treasury

imports,

request

ing

domestically

is

the

to the petitioners

tional

ported

by the Southwest Florida Winter Vegetable Growers

ducers’ group) under provisions of the Antidumping

by

can

there

made

value and that they injured the domestic industry, Treasury will periodically review the fair value of such imports at less

and

than

fair

an

assess

additional

duty equal to any existing dumping margin. The public is permitted

stages beginning with the submission of evidence by the produc-

to

participate

in

all

of the investigation,

Imfiling the petition. porters also are allowed to

ers

present

information

and

prior to the final determination

— attend

“confrontation

conferences” which involve Foreign Agriculture

Top: Worker in Sinaloa, Mexico, harvests vine-ripened tomatoes; Left: A load of sweet green peppers is unloaded at a Sinaloa packinghouse. Mexico’s share of the U.S. fresh vegetable market has risen from 28-30 percent in the 1960’s to 40-45 percent in 1977/78.

both

and

importers

ex-

porters. 1

tion

After an tion

is

were

weeks

tial

If

there

is

initial

ini-

ruling

is

to

1

For further information on the case submission of evidence, contact Mr. Michael Ready, U.S. Customs or

Service, Duty

Assessment

nical Branch, 1301

November

27,

Div.,

Tech-

Constitution Ave.,

Washington, D.C. telephone (202) 566-5492. N.W.,

1978

are

foreign governments usual-

is

an

negative determination the

investiga-

hearings

re-

date such a hearing quested.

the

of the

sales

that

at less than fair value,

held within 3

— public

usually scheduled within 5 weeks. Foreign producer and government involvement is always accepted, and the

determina-

initial

made

public hearings are usually

— or

discontinue

20229,

or

ly

are notified prior to the

publishing of

all

notices.

Cooperation of foreign producers with the Customs reinvestigators Service sponsible for collecting the necessary data is helpful. If an adequate amount of information cannot be collected the Treasury Depart-

ment may make

its

ruling

based on whatever informais available, even though it is limited.

tion

In 1977,

the United States

imported 785.4 million pounds of Mexican winter tomatoes, compared with the 1970-75 annual average of 615.4 million pounds. Imports of squash were 66.9 year,

pounds compared with a million

236.2 1977,

million pounds in compared with an

average

of

146

million

pounds in 1970-75; and green pepper imports were 112.9 million pounds in 1977, compared with a 72.8million-pound 1970-75.

The

average

Mexican

share

for

of

that

the U.S. fresh market varies

34.9-

considerably from the

million-pound average in 1970-75. Eggplant imports

were 31.9 million pounds in 1977 and averaged 27.5 million pounds for the 1970-75 period.

Cucumber imports were Page 9

southwest

region of the United States to the northeast, but for the total U.S.

market the Mexican share has risen from 28 to 30 percent in the mid-1960’s to 4045 percent in 1977/78.

million bales for the previ-

World Cotton Output Lower, Exports Rise

ous season. World cotton tion in 1978/79

62 million bales, about

1

million

crease



lion

bales from

earlier

level,

year-

the

according to

preliminary information from main cotton producing countries. Exports, how-

forecast

at

1977/78.

World cotton production in 1978/79 is estimated at about 60.4 million 480-lb bales down about 3 mil-

consumpis

above that Most of the

is

countries,

with

Japan, and Korea expecting the greatest growth. With world cotton conIndia,

sumption expected to exceed production by 1-2 million bales, stocks could

decline

some

2 million from

should rise slightly from the 1977/78 level. Foreign production is forecast at around 49.5 milan increase of lion bales 400,000 bales, but below the earlier estimate as drought in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to limit recovery from the low 1977/78 output. PRC cotton production for 1978/79 is forecast at about 9.6 million bales,

24 million bales on August 1. This lower total still would be above the 21-million-bale low reached on August 1, 1977. World cotton exports are

compared

ever,



with a revised 9.2

the

forecast at 20 million bales

1978/79,

in

up from

19.4

million estimated for 1977/

The

team of more than 50 imJapanese food

A

porters for

to help

a

I

addition

In

$204-mill ion

agricultural

of

country’s

the

least

de-

veloped regions. The project area covers 30 percent of the agricultural land and half the agricultural population in Bos-

nia-Herzegovina.

It

is

designed to increase production of 12,000 individually owned farms and extend output on 9,500 hectares It

in

also

the public sector.

includes

an

ex-

tension service, facilities to

improve livestock breeds and crop varieties, artificial insemination, and farm machine repair facilities for in-

to

San

seasons.

York

dividual farmers

in all

parts

An important feature

of

of

the

Francisco,

(Ore.),

trade

in

Portland

New

Chicago, and

the five cities, the Jap-

viewed

dis-

provide the bulk of the anticipated expansion

duction,

while

the

in

pro-

public

expected to foster growth through support services to farmers and diversification and expansion of processing facilities. Three commercial banks two Japanese and one French have signed a sector

is





letter

the

of

commitment

borrower

a $20-million project.

Page 10

to

with

negotiate

loan for the

volume represents products such as grains, soybeans, and cotbulk

It

was

the

largest foreign

mission

ever to visit the United States for the sole purpose of buying U.S. food products and meeting with U.S. food industry people.

The team was comprised

met with representatives of 240 U.S. companies, and held seminars on Japanese food safety and customs regulations. Both Japanese and American participants expressed pleasure with the

key decision-makers from leading Japanese supermarkets, department stores, wholesale firms, and trading companies.

planned mission. Tohru Noda, managing

and public sectors. producers will

consumerThe larger

plays of U.S. food products,

outcome

Individual

or

foods.

The Japanese team was

of

private

ready

organized by the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Tokyo.

the project

is the adoption an integrated approach toward agriculture, based on cooperation between the

processed

of

representing

New

in

City.

group

one-tenth

value

meeting

Orleans, they also met with

members

totaled

with ap-

proximately

ton.

cities.

Japan billion,

to

that

American

able cotton exports to resume after being limited by short crops the past two

of the country.

after

sales

with U.S. exporters

Yugoslavia develop

and agro-industries project in Bosnia-Herzegovina, one

Orleans

expected larger Indian crop will permit siz-

78.

Yugoslav Farm Loan Approved

il

New

ports

around $4

purchasing an estimated $100 million worth of U.S. processed and consumerready foods during a 2week buying mission to five

In

The World Bank has apa $55-m ion loan

left

Japan October 27

anese

proved

Buying Trip

U.S.

in-

Asian cotton

in

importing

of

Japanese Complete

of

the

long-

Hankyu Department Stores, and chairman of the Japanese group, said, director of

"Buying tours of this kind an excellent way to initiate new business with the United States and find are

new

suppliers of the proc-

essed food products need to buy.”

we

was

part

The group’s

visit

of a drive to increase U.S.

processed food sales to Japan, which is U.S. agriculture’s largest export market. In the U.S. fiscal year that

1978,

of

The group’s activities were coordinated by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) with the assistance of the

Mid-America

Interna-

Agri-Trade Council (MIATCO), headquartered in Chicago; the Eastern U.S. Agricultural Food and Export Council (EUSAFEC), New York; the Southern United States Trade Association (SUSTA), New Ortional

and the State Departments of Agriculture in Washington and Oregon. Since each of the releans,

gional organizations repre-

sents

a

number

of

State

agriculture departments, the

ended September

30,

displays viewed by the team drew products from

agricultural

ex-

almost 40 states.

U.S.

five

Foreign Agriculture

were

Top: Wisconsin

fish

among Chicago

exhibits. Left:

In

Tokyo, U.S. Ambassador

Mike Mansfield (right) and Attache Dudley Williams with team leaders Tohru Noda (left) and Elichi Kamimura. Below, far left: New York host J. Roger Barber, Agriculture Commissioner and president of EUSAFEC. Below left: Meat Importers Hiroaki Oshima and Kunitaro Ueda.

November

27,

1978

Page

11

a

Thailand’s Rice

D

uring the past 13 years,

Thailand’s rice exports

have demonstrated notable shifts in destination.

Export Markets

Change

Significantly

By Dean Richards

New markets have opened Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam, and certain countries in the Mideast, Africa, and Europe. In the same period, Thai rice imports by some other countries, notably India and Japan, have declined or ceased. Led by Indonesia, the world’s largest importer of rice, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philipup,

including

and Singapore have doubled imports of Thai rice since 1965. Between 1965 and 1977 imports rose from 611,196 tons to 1.3 million. (All volumes are pines,

milled

rice;

metric.)

As a percentage

Thailand’s

weights,

all

total

rice

of

ex-

ASEAN

market share has risen from 34 to 45 percent during those 13 years. In 1977, Thailand supplied the ASEAN group with 50 percent of its total the

ports,

Top: Harvesting Thai rice. Below: Harvester performing a balancing act as he unloads rice harvested from the field in the background into the boat. Thailand is a major rice exporter.

recent

years,

most have

ASEAN

countries

come

depend on Thai-

to

land for the bulk of their rice imports. Malaysia,

which took 55 percent of its rice imports from Thailand in 1965, pushed the percentage to 90 in 1977. Similarly, the Philippines went from 22 percent to 96 percent and Singapore from 73 percent to 99 percent. However, the volume of total imports by the Philippines has been down from past years.

Indonesia,

ports of 2.9 million tons, up from only 5 percent in 1965. Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Laos, and Vietnam are Thailand’s major Asian customers outside the ASEAN grouping. Recently im-

proved relations with Southsocialist countries should further strengthen Thailand’s position as a major rice supplier. This is

east Asian

especially true so long as

production

Burma

in

producer



could compete strongly with Thailand continues to be hampered by a lack of vigorous production policies. rice

that



Larger exports to Southeast Asia and Bangladesh,

however, are not likely to make up for the cut in Thailand’s sales to the

and

dian, Japanese,

markets.

pine

In-

Philip-

Significant

increases in total grain proparticularly of rice duction have enabled these countries to cut their Thai rice





imports sharply.

rice imports. In

percent of its total rice imports of almost 2 million tons from Thailand in 1977. This represented 29 percent of Thailand’s rice ex-

In

1965, these three coun-

tries

imported 488,460 tons

of Thai rice.

huge

demand has

forced it to import rice from many sources, got more than 40

1977, India

The greatest

shift in

tinations for Thai

ports

during

the

des-

rice

ex-

past

13

years has been the move away from Asian to African markets. Whereas 76 percent of all Thai rice exports went to Asian countries in 1965, only 63 percent went in

whose

In

purchased no Thai rice, and combined purchases by Japan and the Philippines were down to 72,301 tons.

1977.

Indonesian Discounting imports which have risen dramatically in recent years and make up a disproportionate share of Asian imports of Thai rice Thai





The author is an agricultural economist. Grain and Feed Division, Commodity Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service. Page 12

exports to Asia have dropped from 71 percent of total Thai rice exports in 1965 to 34 percent in 1977. rice

Foreign Agriculture

On the other hand, the share of Thai rice exported to Africa has risen during the past 13 years.

only

tons



percent

8

1965,

In

— 160,245

of Thailand’s rice ex-

By 1977, thisfigure had climbed went

ports

753,165

or

percent,

26

to

Africa.

to

Thailand also has boosted its market share of

tons.

African

total

bought 19

1965, Africa

In

imports.

rice

percent of its imported rice from Thailand. By 1977, the total

was 26

percent.

1977,

Nigerian

pur-

278,281

tons

In

chases

made

of

second largest

the

it

importer of Thai rice





after

Indonesia and the single largest African buyer. Da-

homey was the second est

in

tons.

larg-

Africa, taking 101,860

Much

was

of this rice

transshipped to Nigeria after congestion in the port of Lagos forced Nigeria to

make

Dahomey’s

use of Porto Novo.

Dahomey’s requirements,

Mideastern

imports

of

amounted

ports of Thai rice

Thai rice doubled between

to

1965 and

land’s total rice exports.

pur-

with

1977,

chases the latteryear reaching 233,735 tons. Although Thai rice

gaining

is

in

favor

— largely because price — Pakistan’s basmati of

rice

its

the region’s pre-

is still

percent of Thai-

1

Future rises in Thai rice exports are likely to remain tied to the country’s production level, since export prices have

little effect on producer prices under the

country’s

ferred grain.

Standing

about

about 31 percent in 1965, Thailand’s share of the Mideast market fell to 16 percent in 1977. Thai rice exports to the Middle East as a percentage of total Thai rice exports have remained fairly at





stable at 9 percent.

export

current

variable

How-

system.

tax

ever, the Kriangsak

Govern-

ment

is committed to perdomestic farm gate prices to increase, which

mit

will

allow a better correla-

tion

between domestic and

world prices, and, ultimate-

domestic production. Since 1965, Thai rice production has increased by about 35 percent from 7.7 ly,

Saudi Arabia and South Yemen have been the most important long-term Mideastern customers for Thai rice since 1965 with South Yemen acting as distributor



million tons to 10.4 million in

1977. During the 1965-77

Thai

period,

exports

rice

to other

have averaged

In

tons annually, ranging from a low of 849,000 tons in

Persian Gulf States. 1977, Thai exports of

47.000 tons to the Yemen Arab Republic matched those to South Yemen. That

same

year,

and

Iran

1.5

million

1973 to a high of 2.9 million tons

in

1977.

Most

Iraq

1978

of Thailand’s

exportable

the former country

topped other Persian Gulf buyers, each taking about

place

75.000

million tons



sold to

traditional mar-

plus those of Nigeria,

Thai

in eighth importer of

an

as rice.

put

descending

In

order of importance, Thailand’s top 10 rice importers

1977

in

were

Indonesia,

Nigeria, Singapore,

MalayLanka, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Dahomey, Viet-

sia, Sri

nam, and

Iran.

Neither Nigeria nor Da-

homey was an

important

tons

The number

Total

slipped

by

takings

num-

bered just 13 African counas customers, of which two were in West Africa. By

tries

1976, however, the total risen

were

to in

22,

West

of

which

Africa.

had 10

Swell-

urban populations along Africa’s Atlantic coast have boosted demand for rice. ing

As the region’s population grows, Thailand can expect increase rice sales there, provided prices remain

to

competitive.

November

27,

1978

of

rice

that time.

Thailand

rice.

imports

by

Western Europe have nearly doubled since 1965, but the share from Thailand has percent.

1965,

Thai

Middle Eastern countries now buying rice from Thailand has risen from seven countries in 1965 to 11 in 1977.

buyer of Thai rice prior to 1976. In fact, Thailand had few customers in Africa at In

of

more than 60

U.S. rice exports

have largely replaced Thailand’s

lost

of

sales.

Thai

Larger by

rice

Belgium/Luxembourg and West Germany have been more than offset by sharp cutbacks by Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom. Ironically, Denmark and the United Kingdom, Thailand’s two largest European rice importers in 1965,

have reduced purchases to a point where they were Thailand’s smallest European customers in 1977. In that year, Western Europe’s im-

currently

surplus

rice

estimated

its

is

at

1.8

likely to

be

During the first quar1978 (January-March), Thailand exported 577,698 tons of rice, 304,294 tons percent going to 52 ASEAN countries. Indonesia alone took 163,439 tons. kets.

ter of





Nigeria est

was

the

larg-

customer outside the

ASEAN

group, taking 62,606 tons of total African imports of 81,649 tons. The African

amounted to 14 percent of Thailand’s total rice

total

exports

during

the

first

quarter.

Export

patterns

the

in

immediate future are expected to remain about the

same

as in Exports to

tries will will

recent

years.

ASEAN

counas other South-

probably

those to

rise,

east Asian importers.

Afri-

— and especially West African — countries also can

will

take larger amounts of Thai rice.

Page 13

“The greatest

shift

in destinations for Thai rice during the past 13 years has been the move away from Asian to African markets.”

— jective

make new

to

is



sales.

FAS/MIATCO Team To Visit Mexican Dairy Cattle Show

“Mexico

some

plans

buy

to

South Africa’s

19,000 head of U.S.

cattle in 1979, and Mexico is the top market for Wisconsin breeding cat-

dairy

Dried Fruit

Production,

tle,” Sullivan said.

The importance of Mexico as a market for top-quality U.S. breeding cattle will

be underlined by the visit of an FAS/MIATCO (Mid1

America International AgriTrade Council) dairy cattle trade team to the National

Show

Dairy

Queretaro,

in

December

Mexico,

4-9,

1978.

show

This

events

the second

Mexican such which FAS and

three

of

is

in

U.S. breed associations will

participate

The

1979.

during

fiscal

was

the Na-

first

Livestock

tional

Show

in

the Queretaro show, and will take a swing through the area to visit outstanding dairy farms.

attending

Team members meet with

also

will

representatives

banking industry to discuss methods by which purchases of U.S. cattle can best be financed. FAS, U.S. breed associaof the

MIATCO

and

tions,

share a booth taro

at the

will

Quere-

manned who will

fairgrounds,

by representatives discuss U.S. breeding livestock with dairy breeders

and producers.

October 1-8, 1978; the last will be the National Beef Cattle Show, date and place still to be

Jim Sullivan, Livestock and Meat Marketing Specialist for the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, and

determined.

coordinator of the MIATCO project, said in a telephone interview with Foreign Agriwhile one purculture, that

Mexico

City,

The FAS/MIATCO team meet with cattle buyers

will 1

MIATCO

posed

is

ol

the

partments

ol

an export council com12 Midwest State DeAgriculture

and expand exports and agricultural products.

nate

quarters

is

in

Chicago,

coordi-

to

of Its

food head-



pose of the trip is to follow up on U.S. breeding cattle sold

the past by

in

members

III.

MIATCO

—the ultimate ob-

“In

1976,

for

example,

Up

Exports

12,000 head of Wisconsin dairy breeding cattle

were

sold to that country.”

The

show, held every year, serves as dairy

cattle

a showplace for high-quality cattle, both imported

and bred by milk producers in the Queretaro and To-

The United

rreon milksheds.

—along with Canada, country’s major com—supplies most

States this

petitor

of

South Africa’s production 1978 was an estimated 20,000 metric tons, about 21 percent larger than the 1977 outturn and the third highest on record, according to a dispatch from James O. Howard, U.S. Agricultural Attache in Pretoria. Exports of sultanas of dried fruit in

Thompson seedless

Mexico’s imported breeding

mostly

cattle.

1978 are estimated at 6,400 tons, far raisins

Mexico bought 28,452 head of U.S. dairy In

1977,

breeding

some uting

animals

worth

$15.9 million, contribto

U.S.

agricultural

exports to Mexico totaling $664.4 million. Ninety-five percent of these imports were bulk commodities wheat, barley, sorghum, oil

—during

above the

levels of recent Exports of other dried fruits are expected to be at normal levels.

years.

ing

among

raisin

of output

in 1978 is mainly a result of a doubling (about 1,000 tons) in

cake and meal, soybeans, hides and skins, seeds, and tallow being the most im-

37 percent rise (about 3,000

portant of these.

tons) in sultana production.

Orange River

South

raisins

Africa’s

(chiefly

Transport Problems Hurt Canadian Grain Exports may

below

last

fall

somewhat

year’s

near-

capacity level of 20.3 million tons.

With several factors impeding Canada’s movement of grains into export position, some foreign buyers reportedly are being asked to accept somewhat deferred delivery of shipments originally scheduled for the

November-March

period.

Approximately 60 percent of Canada’s grain exports move through Thunder Bay, the balance going through

west

coast

and

ports

Churchill. However, only a

from the 1975-77 average of 44.7 million.

portion of the grain

Several factors have con-

from Thunder Bay are direct export shipments while most move by

tributed to the 55 percent

the eastern elevators.

laker vessel to transfer ele-

liveries

small

shipments

vators

in

the lakes and the

Lawrence River. As of mid-October, grains

St.

in

eastern transfer elevators only

totaled

45.4

million

compared with a

bushels,

3-year (1975-77) average of 82.3 is

million.

the

lower

stock

St.

More

critical

level

in

the

Lawrence, totaling

26.5 million bushels,

down

of

normal stock position in Deto

Thunder

Bay

have been, and continue to be, below normal; problems of stock positioning have impeded the out-movement of types of grains as desired; a slowdown by railway switchmen delayed incoming grain cars; and a recent seaman’s strike held up laker shipments for 11 days.

apricots,

unconfruit

crop

apples,

peaches, and pears) in 1978 is estimated at about 3,900 tons about percent 26 smaller than the 1977 out-



because of small pear, and apple crops. More attractive returns in other markets were blamed turn

apricot,

for the decline.

About 500 tons of raisins Muscat grapes, 750 tons of apricots, and 350 tons of peaches as well as the usual mixes are expected to be exported. Export prices are firm, and from

export

price

realizations

expected to domestic prices.

are

surpass

The United Kingdom 1977 held

Page 14

and a

(not subject to the

Dried Fruit Board)

Canada’s 1978/79 grain

export-

The higher

countries.

level

trolled

exports

was

1977, South Africa

In

sixth

its

position

in

as

Foreign Agriculture

Imports

Italian

Of

U.S. Rice

To Set Record U.S. rice exports to Italy fiscal 1977/78 (OctoberSeptember) are expected to set a record of about 200,000 metric tons (rough basis) far above last year’s in



88,000 tons.

Such expectations are supported by a report from the Office of the General Sales Manager showing accumulated rice exports to Italy during marketing year 1977/78 (August-July) at 211,600 tons. In contrast, during the 7 years prior to U.S.

1976,

fiscal

ports

barely

valued

Italy

43

tons

per

year,

at only $15,000.

The value expected ceed $42 only

the

ex-

rice

averaged

to

of this year’s

could

total

million.

ex-

Italy

is

producer

major

and exporter of rice in Western Europe. Italy’s output set records of over

1

million tons during 1973-75.

South Africa’s leading customer for dried fruits, although its share of total South African dried fruit exports declined to 35 percent from 45 percent in 1976 and 38 percent in 1975.

Foreign Agriculture

The level

higher for

total

production

consumption

dried

clined 6 percent from the year-earlier level because

fruit

1978 is attributed to a combination of higher advance prices set by the Dried Fruit Board and favorable weather. South Africa’s domestic production

Bob Bergland,

in

in

1977

Dale E. Hathaway, Assistant Secretary Commodity Programs. R.

Hughes,

No. 48 27,

1978

Beverly

J.

plies.

port

of

insufficient

supplies.

for International Affairs

and

1978

in

of Agriculture

has determined is

necessary

the transaction of public business required

by law

of this

printing

Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service.

Department. Use of funds

for

Foreign Agriculture has been ap-

proved by the Director, Office of Management

and Budget, through June

30. 1979. Yearly

subscription rate: $38.00 domestic, $48.00

Editor

Horsley, Assoc. Editor; G. H. Baker; Marcellus P. Murphy;

Aubrey C. Robinson; Lynn A. Krawczyk; Isabel A. Smith.

foreign; single copies

80

cents.

Order from

Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D C. 20402 Con-

magazine may be reprinted freely. commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by tents of this

Richard A. Smith, Chairman; Richard M. Kennedy; J. Don Looper; Larry N. Marton; Jimmy D. Minyard; Turner L. Oyloe; Steven Washenko.

27,

commitments.

The Secretary

Advisory Board:

November

rice

Italian

About 650 tons of prunes were imported to supplement short domestic sup-

Editorial Staff:

XVI

(August-July),

production was 30 percent below the previous 3-year average, pushing prices to record highs and requiring larger imports to meet ex-

Secretary of Agriculture.

Kay Owsley Patterson,

November

de-

that publication of this periodical

Thomas

Vol.

Since then, production has dropped back to more normal levels. In 1977/78

Use

of

USDA

Page 15

or Foreign Agricultural Service.

— (

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

U.S.

WASHINGTON D C 20250 POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AGR 101

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE *300 OFFICIAL BUSINESS

First Class

Farm T rade Outlook

U.S.

products are

Soviet Union to

may have

less cotton to export, especially

Western markets. In

this

situation,

U.S.

cotton prices have been com-

despite a smaller crop, the United States have a good supply of cotton available for export

in fiscal

1979.

Livestock and products. Volume of 1979 exports of livestock and livestock products is likely to be little changed from last year’s, but higher unit prices should

push of

total

fiscal

export value somewhat above the $2.35 billion Prices will be influenced by inflation,

1978.

strong world demand, reduced supplies of

some

may

stimulate U.S. pork exports.

Poultry and egg exports are expected to continue to rise, with larger shipments forecast to the Caribbean, Japan, Hong Kong, and the EC. Fruits and vegetables. Export value of fruits and vegetables is expected to continue its upward trend beyond last year’s total of almost $1.9 billion, despite an anticipated decline in volume. Short U.S. crops of oranges, grapefruit, and lemons combined with increased competition from Mediterranean countries granted tariff preference by the EC will reduce the volume of citrus exports for the third straight year. U.S. supplies of raisins and tree nuts have been reduced by rain damage. Tobacco. Increases are seen for both volume and value of U.S. tobacco exports, which were worth $1.1 billion last



year.

The main

factors

in

this

forecast

quality of the 1978 U.S. flue-cured

are the

with

increase

little

Many

in

value from last

rice exports will

in

factors will

volume. the

affect

final

outcome

—weather,

economics; and the political decisions on domestic agriculture and trade that are made by governments around the world. Weather is beyond control, and the world economy is outside the purview of USDA, but the U.S. Government can, through representation, try to influence government decisions that affect the course of agricultural trade, n

which

is

with

us

world

always;

International Meetings

— December

Date

Organization and location

Nov. 27Dec. 8

FAO

Nov. 30Dec. 1

U.S. -USSR Joint

Nov. 30Dec. 5

U.S.-USSR group of experts and Joint Commercial Commission meeting, Moscow.

3-8

American Society

Council,

Rome. Committee on Agricultural

Cooperation, Washington.

of

Agronomy, annual

meeting, Chicago. 4-6

OECD

working party, agricultural

policies, Paris.

4-8

UNCTAD

ad hoc committee on Integrated for Commodities, Geneva.

Program 4-14

International

11-13

OECD

11-13

International

Cocoa Organization, London.

ad hoc meeting on animal feeding, Paris.

Fund

for Agricultural

Development, Rome. 11-15

UNCTAD

12-14

International Sugar Organization

Conference on Tea, London.

(Council), London.

high

crop, relatively low stocks of U.S. leaf in many countries, and the decline in the value of the dollar, which has held the cost of U.S. tobacco in major foreign currencies to about the same level as a year ago. In other commodities, exports of sugar and tropical

Page 16

of U.S.

items,

and stronger foreign currencies. An export decline is expected only in dairy products, primarily because nonfat dry milk now is being sold at “world prices" that are far below those of a year ago. Shipments of beef and slaughter cattle to Canada are expected to rise because of reduced Canadian production and easing of PBB restrictions. Beef exports to Japan also are expected to increase, and mandatory slaughter to eradicate swine fever in the Dominican Republic

The value

likely decline from last year’s $833 million, based on the expectation of substantially lower unit prices combined

petitive and, will

increase slightly

likely to

year’s $572 million.

Continued from page 4

14-15

OECD

15

Agricultural Cooperator Council/FAS,

working party, meat, Paris.

Washington. 15

International

Cocoa Organization

(Council),

London.

Foreign Agriculture

1978
Agriculture Economic aspects Periodicals, Produce trade Periodicals
English